Climate change, fire return intervals and the growing risk of permanent forest loss in boreal Eurasia.

Climate change has driven an increase in the frequency and severity of fires in Eurasian boreal forests. A growing number of field studies have linked the change in fire regime to post-fire recruitment failure and permanent forest loss. In this study we used four burned area and two forest loss datasets to calculate the landscape-scale fire return interval (FRI) and associated risk of permanent forest loss.

Multidecadal declines in particulate mercury and sediment export from Russian rivers in the pan-Arctic basin.

SignificanceRussian rivers are the predominant source of riverine mercury to the Arctic Ocean, where methylmercury biomagnifies to high levels in food webs. Pollution controls are thought to have decreased late-20th-century mercury loading to Arctic watersheds, but there are no published long-term observations on mercury in Russian rivers. Here, we present a unique hydrochemistry dataset to determine trends in Russian river particulate mercury concentrations and fluxes in recent decades.

Crediting agricultural soil carbon sequestration.

Regional consistency is necessary for carbon credit integrity.

New land-use-change emissions indicate a declining CO airborne fraction.

About half of the anthropogenic CO emissions remain in the atmosphere and half are taken up by the land and ocean. If the carbon uptake by land and ocean sinks becomes less efficient, for example, owing to warming oceans or thawing permafrost, a larger fraction of anthropogenic emissions will remain in the atmosphere, accelerating climate change. Changes in the efficiency of the carbon sinks can be estimated indirectly by analysing trends in the airborne fraction, that is, the ratio between the atmospheric growth rate and anthropogenic emissions of CO (refs.

Arctic greening and browning: Challenges and a cascade of complexities.

Arctic greening (the increase in plant biomass and productivity at high latitudes) is one of the clearest large-scale vegetation changes seen in recent decades. However, despite being the subject of considerable research effort, our understanding of this phenomenon is far from complete. Challenges around remote sensing, process based understanding, and the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of greening-including the opposite process of Arctic browning-challenges our ability to model and predict Arctic vegetation change and its biogeochemical consequences.

Low NO and variable CH fluxes from tropical forest soils of the Congo Basin.

Globally, tropical forests are assumed to be an important source of atmospheric nitrous oxide (NO) and sink for methane (CH). Yet, although the Congo Basin comprises the second largest tropical forest and is considered the most pristine large basin left on Earth, in situ NO and CH flux measurements are scarce. Here, we provide multi-year data derived from on-ground soil flux (n = 1558) and riverine dissolved gas concentration (n = 332) measurements spanning montane, swamp, and lowland forests.

Contrasting responses of woody and grassland ecosystems to increased CO as water supply varies.

Experiments show that elevated atmospheric CO (eCO) often enhances plant photosynthesis and productivity, yet this effect varies substantially and may be climate sensitive. Understanding if, where and how water supply regulates CO enhancement is critical for projecting terrestrial responses to increasing atmospheric CO and climate change. Here, using data from 14 long-term ecosystem-scale CO experiments, we show that the eCO enhancement of annual aboveground net primary productivity is sensitive to annual precipitation and that this sensitivity differs between woody and grassland ecosystems.

World scientists' warnings into action, local to global.

'We have kicked the can down the road once again - but we are running out of road.' - Rachel Kyte, Dean of Fletcher School at Tufts University.We, in our capacities as scientists, economists, governance and policy specialists, are shifting from warnings to guidance for action before there is no more 'road.

Impacts of pre-fire conifer density and wildfire severity on ecosystem structure and function at the forest-tundra ecotone.

Wildfire frequency and extent is increasing throughout the boreal forest-tundra ecotone as climate warms. Understanding the impacts of wildfire throughout this ecotone is required to make predictions of the rate and magnitude of changes in boreal-tundra landcover, its future flammability, and associated feedbacks to the global carbon (C) cycle and climate. We studied 48 sites spanning a gradient from tundra to low-density spruce stands that were burned in an extensive 2013 wildfire on the north slope of the Alaska Range in Denali National Park and Preserve, central Alaska.

Increasing fire and the decline of fire adapted black spruce in the boreal forest.

Intensifying wildfire activity and climate change can drive rapid forest compositional shifts. In boreal North America, black spruce shapes forest flammability and depends on fire for regeneration. This relationship has helped black spruce maintain its dominance through much of the Holocene.

Land-based measures to mitigate climate change: Potential and feasibility by country.

Land-based climate mitigation measures have gained significant attention and importance in public and private sector climate policies. Building on previous studies, we refine and update the mitigation potentials for 20 land-based measures in >200 countries and five regions, comparing "bottom-up" sectoral estimates with integrated assessment models (IAMs). We also assess implementation feasibility at the country level.

Residential yard management and landscape cover affect urban bird community diversity across the continental USA.

Urbanization has a homogenizing effect on biodiversity and leads to communities with fewer native species and lower conservation value. However, few studies have explored whether or how land management by urban residents can ameliorate the deleterious effects of this homogenization on species composition. We tested the effects of local (land management) and neighborhood-scale (impervious surface and tree canopy cover) features on breeding bird diversity in six US metropolitan areas that differ in regional species pools and climate.

How deregulation, drought and increasing fire impact Amazonian biodiversity.

Biodiversity contributes to the ecological and climatic stability of the Amazon Basin, but is increasingly threatened by deforestation and fire. Here we quantify these impacts over the past two decades using remote-sensing estimates of fire and deforestation and comprehensive range estimates of 11,514 plant species and 3,079 vertebrate species in the Amazon. Deforestation has led to large amounts of habitat loss, and fires further exacerbate this already substantial impact on Amazonian biodiversity.

Understanding the Effects of Optimal Combination of Spectral Bands on Deep Learning Model Predictions: A Case Study Based on Permafrost Tundra Landform Mapping Using High Resolution Multispectral Satellite Imagery.

Deep learning (DL) convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have been rapidly adapted in very high spatial resolution (VHSR) satellite image analysis. DLCNN-based computer visions (CV) applications primarily aim for everyday object detection from standard red, green, blue (RGB) imagery, while earth science remote sensing applications focus on geo object detection and classification from multispectral (MS) imagery. MS imagery includes RGB and narrow spectral channels from near- and/or middle-infrared regions of reflectance spectra.

Are indigenous territories effective natural climate solutions? A neotropical analysis using matching methods and geographic discontinuity designs.

Indigenous Territories (ITs) with less centralized forest governance than Protected Areas (PAs) may represent cost-effective natural climate solutions to meet the Paris agreement. However, the literature has been limited to examining the effect of ITs on deforestation, despite the influence of anthropogenic degradation. Thus, little is known about the temporal and spatial effect of allocating ITs on carbon stocks dynamics that account for losses from deforestation and degradation.

Integrating solutions to adapt cities for climate change.

Record climate extremes are reducing urban liveability, compounding inequality, and threatening infrastructure. Adaptation measures that integrate technological, nature-based, and social solutions can provide multiple co-benefits to address complex socioecological issues in cities while increasing resilience to potential impacts. However, there remain many challenges to developing and implementing integrated solutions.

Patterns of post-drought recovery are strongly influenced by drought duration, frequency, post-drought wetness, and bioclimatic setting.

Understanding vegetation recovery after drought is critical for projecting vegetation dynamics in future climates. From 1997 to 2009, Australia experienced a long-lasting drought known as the Millennium Drought (MD), which led to widespread reductions in vegetation productivity. However, vegetation recovery post-drought and its determinants remain unclear.

Annual precipitation explains variability in dryland vegetation greenness globally but not locally.

Dryland vegetation productivity is strongly modulated by water availability. As precipitation patterns and variability are altered by climate change, there is a pressing need to better understand vegetation responses to precipitation variability in these ecologically fragile regions. Here we present a global analysis of dryland sensitivity to annual precipitation variations using long-term records of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI).

Overwintering fires in boreal forests.

Forest fires are usually viewed within the context of a single fire season, in which weather conditions and fuel supply can combine to create conditions favourable for fire ignition-usually by lightning or human activity-and spread. But some fires exhibit 'overwintering' behaviour, in which they smoulder through the non-fire season and flare up in the subsequent spring. In boreal (northern) forests, deep organic soils favourable for smouldering, along with accelerated climate warming, may present unusually favourable conditions for overwintering.

Permafrost carbon feedbacks threaten global climate goals.

Rapid Arctic warming has intensified northern wildfires and is thawing carbon-rich permafrost. Carbon emissions from permafrost thaw and Arctic wildfires, which are not fully accounted for in global emissions budgets, will greatly reduce the amount of greenhouse gases that humans can emit to remain below 1.5 °C or 2 °C.

Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: Regional patterns and uncertainties.

The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO ) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink-source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e.

Burning in southwestern Brazilian Amazonia, 2016-2019.

Fire is one of the most powerful modifiers of the Amazonian landscape and knowledge about its drivers is needed for planning control and suppression. A plethora of factors may play a role in the annual dynamics of fire frequency, spanning the biophysical, climatic, socioeconomic and institutional dimensions. To uncover the main forces currently at play, we investigated the area burned in both forested and deforested areas in the outstanding case of Brazil's state of Acre, in southwestern Amazonia.

Water quality measurements in Buzzards Bay by the Buzzards Bay Coalition Baywatchers Program from 1992 to 2018.

The Buzzards Bay Coalition's Baywatchers Monitoring Program (Baywatchers) collected summertime water quality information at more than 150 stations around Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts from 1992 to 2018. Baywatchers documents nutrient-related water quality and the effects of nitrogen pollution. The large majority of stations are located in sub-estuaries of the main Bay, although stations in central Buzzards Bay and Vineyard Sound were added beginning in 2007.

Future carbon emissions from global mangrove forest loss.

Mangroves have among the highest carbon densities of any tropical forest. These 'blue carbon' ecosystems can store large amounts of carbon for long periods, and their protection reduces greenhouse gas emissions and supports climate change mitigation. Incorporating mangroves into Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement and their valuation on carbon markets requires predicting how the management of different land-uses can prevent future greenhouse gas emissions and increase CO sequestration.