RCP8.5 tracks cumulative CO emissions.

Climate simulation-based scenarios are routinely used to characterize a range of plausible climate futures. Despite some recent progress on bending the emissions curve, RCP8.5, the most aggressive scenario in assumed fossil fuel use for global climate models, will continue to serve as a useful tool for quantifying physical climate risk, especially over near- to midterm policy-relevant time horizons.

Anthropogenic climate change has driven over 5 million km of drylands towards desertification.

Drylands cover 41% of the earth's land surface and include 45% of the world's agricultural land. These regions are among the most vulnerable ecosystems to anthropogenic climate and land use change and are under threat of desertification. Understanding the roles of anthropogenic climate change, which includes the CO fertilization effect, and land use in driving desertification is essential for effective policy responses but remains poorly quantified with methodological differences resulting in large variations in attribution.

Empirical estimates of regional carbon budgets imply reduced global soil heterotrophic respiration.

Resolving regional carbon budgets is critical for informing land-based mitigation policy. For nine regions covering nearly the whole globe, we collected inventory estimates of carbon-stock changes complemented by satellite estimates of biomass changes where inventory data are missing. The net land-atmospheric carbon exchange (NEE) was calculated by taking the sum of the carbon-stock change and lateral carbon fluxes from crop and wood trade, and riverine-carbon export to the ocean.

Contribution of land use to the interannual variability of the land carbon cycle.

Understanding the driving mechanisms of the interannual variability (IAV) of the net land carbon balance (S) is important to predict future climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. Past studies showed that the IAV of S was correlated with tropical climate variation and controlled by semiarid vegetation. But today's land ecosystems are also under extensive human land use and management.

Wildfire combustion and carbon stocks in the southern Canadian boreal forest: Implications for a warming world.

Boreal wildfires are increasing in intensity, extent, and frequency, potentially intensifying carbon emissions and transitioning the region from a globally significant carbon sink to a source. The productive southern boreal forests of central Canada already experience relatively high frequencies of fire, and as such may serve as an analog of future carbon dynamics for more northern forests. Fire-carbon dynamics in southern boreal systems are relatively understudied, with limited investigation into the drivers of pre-fire carbon stocks or subsequent combustion.

Intraspecific responses to climate reveal nonintuitive warming impacts on a widespread thermophilic conifer.

Many ecologically important forest trees from dry areas have been insufficiently investigated for their ability to adapt to the challenges posed by climate change, which hampers the implementation of mitigation policies. We analyzed 14 common-garden experiments across the Mediterranean which studied the widespread thermophilic conifer Pinus halepensis and involved 157 populations categorized into five ecotypes. Ecotype-specific tree height responses to climate were applied to projected climate change (2071-2100 ad), to project potential growth patterns both locally and across the species' range.

Landscape impacts of 3D-seismic surveys in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska.

Although three-dimensional (3D) seismic surveys have improved the success rate of exploratory drilling for oil and gas, the impacts have received little scientific scrutiny, despite affecting more area than any other oil and gas activity. To aid policy-makers and scientists, we reviewed studies of the landscape impacts of 3D-seismic surveys in the Arctic. We analyzed a proposed 3D-seismic program in northeast Alaska, in the northern Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, which includes a grid 63,000 km of seismic trails and additional camp-move trails.

A close look at above ground biomass of a large and heterogeneous Seasonally Dry Tropical Forest - Caatinga in North East of Brazil.

This work is focused on characterizing and understanding the aboveground biomass of Caatinga in a semiarid region in northeastern Brazil. The quantification of Caatinga biomass is limited by the small number of field plots, which are inadequate for addressing the biome's extreme heterogeneity. Satellite-derived biomass products can address spatial and temporal changes but they have not been validated for seasonally dry tropical forests.

Large climate mitigation potential from adding trees to agricultural lands.

While improved management of agricultural landscapes is promoted as a promising natural climate solution, available estimates of the mitigation potential are based on coarse assessments of both agricultural extent and aboveground carbon density. Here we combine 30 meter resolution global maps of aboveground woody carbon, tree cover, and cropland extent, as well as a 1 km resolution map of global pasture land, to estimate the current and potential carbon storage of trees in nonforested portions of agricultural lands. We find that global croplands currently store 3.

Shared drought responses among conifer species in the middle Siberian taiga are uncoupled from their contrasting water-use efficiency trajectories.

A shift from temperature-limited to water-limited tree performance is occurring at around 60°N latitude across the circumboreal biome, in concord with current warming trends. This shift is likely to induce extensive vegetation changes and forest die-back, and also to exacerbate biotic outbreaks and wildfires, affecting the global carbon budget. We used carbon isotope discrimination (ΔC) in tree rings to analyze the long-term physiological responses of five representative species that coexist in the middle taiga of Western Siberia, including dark-needled, drought-susceptible (Abies sibirica, Picea obovata, Pinus sibirica) and light-needled, drought-resistant (Larix sibirica, Pinus sylvestris) conifers.

Mercury Export from Arctic Great Rivers.

Land-ocean linkages are strong across the circumpolar north, where the Arctic Ocean accounts for 1% of the global ocean volume and receives more than 10% of the global river discharge. Yet estimates of Arctic riverine mercury (Hg) export constrained from direct Hg measurements remain sparse. Here, we report results from a coordinated, year-round sampling program that focused on the six major Arctic rivers to establish a contemporary (2012-2017) benchmark of riverine Hg export.

Terrestrial fluxes of carbon in GCP carbon budgets.

The Global Carbon Project (GCP) has published global carbon budgets annually since 2007 (Canadell et al. [2007], Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 104, 18866-18870; Raupach et al. [2007], Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 104, 10288-10293).

Tropical forests did not recover from the strong 2015-2016 El Niño event.

Severe drought and extreme heat associated with the 2015-2016 El Niño event have led to large carbon emissions from the tropical vegetation to the atmosphere. With the return to normal climatic conditions in 2017, tropical forest aboveground carbon (AGC) stocks are expected to partly recover due to increased productivity, but the intensity and spatial distribution of this recovery are unknown. We used low-frequency microwave satellite data (L-VOD) to feature precise monitoring of AGC changes and show that the AGC recovery of tropical ecosystems was slow and that by the end of 2017, AGC had not reached predrought levels of 2014.

Effects of the tropospheric large-scale circulation on European winter temperatures during the period of amplified Arctic warming.

We investigate factors influencing European winter (DJFM) air temperatures for the period 1979-2015 with the focus on changes during the recent period of rapid Arctic warming (1998-2015). We employ meteorological reanalyses analysed with a combination of correlation analysis, two pattern clustering techniques, and back-trajectory airmass identification. In all five selected European regions, severe cold winter events lasting at least 4 days are significantly correlated with warm Arctic episodes.

The role of forest conversion, degradation, and disturbance in the carbon dynamics of Amazon indigenous territories and protected areas.

Maintaining the abundance of carbon stored aboveground in Amazon forests is central to any comprehensive climate stabilization strategy. Growing evidence points to indigenous peoples and local communities (IPLCs) as buffers against large-scale carbon emissions across a nine-nation network of indigenous territories (ITs) and protected natural areas (PNAs). Previous studies have demonstrated a link between indigenous land management and avoided deforestation, yet few have accounted for forest degradation and natural disturbances-processes that occur without forest clearing but are increasingly important drivers of biomass loss.

Meta-analysis on the potential for increasing nitrogen losses from intensifying tropical agriculture.

Fertilized temperate croplands export large amounts of reactive nitrogen (N), which degrades water and air quality and contributes to climate change. Fertilizer use is poised to increase in the tropics, where widespread food insecurity persists and increased agricultural productivity will be needed, but much less is known about the potential consequences of increased tropical N fertilizer application. We conducted a meta-analysis of tropical field studies of nitrate leaching, nitrous oxide emissions, nitric oxide emissions, and ammonia volatilization totaling more than 1,000 observations.

National mitigation potential from natural climate solutions in the tropics.

Better land stewardship is needed to achieve the Paris Agreement's temperature goal, particularly in the tropics, where greenhouse gas emissions from the destruction of ecosystems are largest, and where the potential for additional land carbon storage is greatest. As countries enhance their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement, confusion persists about the potential contribution of better land stewardship to meeting the Agreement's goal to hold global warming below 2°C. We assess cost-effective tropical country-level potential of natural climate solutions (NCS)-protection, improved management and restoration of ecosystems-to deliver climate mitigation linked with sustainable development goals (SDGs).

The gathering firestorm in southern Amazonia.

Wildfires, exacerbated by extreme weather events and land use, threaten to change the Amazon from a net carbon sink to a net carbon source. Here, we develop and apply a coupled ecosystem-fire model to quantify how greenhouse gas-driven drying and warming would affect wildfires and associated CO emissions in the southern Brazilian Amazon. Regional climate projections suggest that Amazon fire regimes will intensify under both low- and high-emission scenarios.

Residential household yard care practices along urban-exurban gradients in six climatically-diverse U.S. metropolitan areas.

Residential land is expanding in the United States, and lawn now covers more area than the country's leading irrigated crop by area. Given that lawns are widespread across diverse climatic regions and there is rising concern about the environmental impacts associated with their management, there is a clear need to understand the geographic variation, drivers, and outcomes of common yard care practices. We hypothesized that 1) income, age, and the number of neighbors known by name will be positively associated with the odds of having irrigated, fertilized, or applied pesticides in the last year, 2) irrigation, fertilization, and pesticide application will vary quadratically with population density, with the highest odds in suburban areas, and 3) the odds of irrigating will vary by climate, but fertilization and pesticide application will not.

Evolutionary diversity is associated with wood productivity in Amazonian forests.

Higher levels of taxonomic and evolutionary diversity are expected to maximize ecosystem function, yet their relative importance in driving variation in ecosystem function at large scales in diverse forests is unknown. Using 90 inventory plots across intact, lowland, terra firme, Amazonian forests and a new phylogeny including 526 angiosperm genera, we investigated the association between taxonomic and evolutionary metrics of diversity and two key measures of ecosystem function: aboveground wood productivity and biomass storage. While taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity were not important predictors of variation in biomass, both emerged as independent predictors of wood productivity.