Assessing alternative indicators for Covid-19 policy evaluation, with a counterfactual for Sweden.

Using the synthetic control method, we construct counterfactuals for what would have happened if Sweden had imposed a lockdown during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic. We consider eight different indicators, including a novel one that we construct by adjusting recorded daily COVID-19 deaths to account for weakly excess mortality. Correcting for data problems and re-optimizing the synthetic control for each indicator, we find that a lockdown would have had sizable effects within one week.

Early-life environment, height and BMI of young men in Italy.

This paper explores the relationship between the two main dimensions of early-life environment, namely disease burden (measured by infant mortality) and economic conditions (measured by income or consumption per capita), and height and body-mass index (BMI) for six annual cohorts of young Italian men born between 1973 and 1978. By combining micro-level data on height and weight with regional- and province-level information, we are able to link individual height and BMI at age 18 to regional and provincial averages of environmental variables in the year of birth. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that, in rich low-mortality settings, the negative effects of childhood disease dominate the positive selection effects of mortality.