A Bayesian model calibration framework for stochastic compartmental models with both time-varying and time-invariant parameters.

We consider state and parameter estimation for compartmental models having both time-varying and time-invariant parameters. In this manuscript, we first detail a general Bayesian computational framework as a continuation of our previous work. Subsequently, this framework is specifically tailored to the susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model which describes a basic mechanism for the spread of infectious diseases through a system of coupled nonlinear differential equations.

The treatment effect across ASPECTS in acute ischemic stroke: Analysis from the AcT trial.

Background: Early ischemic changes on baseline imaging are commonly evaluated for acute stroke decision-making and prognostication.

Aims: We assess the association of early ischemic changes on clinical outcomes and whether it differs between intravenous tenecteplase and Alteplase.

Methods: Data are from the phase 3, Alteplase compared to Tenecteplase (AcT) trial.

Scalable computational algorithms for geospatial COVID-19 spread using high performance computing.

A nonlinear partial differential equation (PDE) based compartmental model of COVID-19 provides a continuous trace of infection over space and time. Finer resolutions in the spatial discretization, the inclusion of additional model compartments and model stratifications based on clinically relevant categories contribute to an increase in the number of unknowns to the order of millions. We adopt a parallel scalable solver that permits faster solutions for these high fidelity models.

KDM8 epigenetically controls cardiac metabolism to prevent initiation of dilated cardiomyopathy.

Cardiac metabolism is deranged in heart failure, but underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Here, we show that lysine demethylase 8 (Kdm8) maintains an active mitochondrial gene network by repressing , thus preventing dilated cardiomyopathy leading to lethal heart failure. Deletion of in mouse cardiomyocytes increased H3K36me2 with activation of and repression of target genes in the NAD pathway before dilated cardiomyopathy initiated.

Comprehensive compartmental model and calibration algorithm for the study of clinical implications of the population-level spread of COVID-19: a study protocol.

Introduction: The complex dynamics of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has made obtaining reliable long-term forecasts of the disease progression difficult. Simple mechanistic models with deterministic parameters are useful for short-term predictions but have ultimately been unsuccessful in extrapolating the trajectory of the pandemic because of unmodelled dynamics and the unrealistic level of certainty that is assumed in the predictions.

Methods And Analysis: We propose a 22-compartment epidemiological model that includes compartments not previously considered concurrently, to account for the effects of vaccination, asymptomatic individuals, inadequate access to hospital care, post-acute COVID-19 and recovery with long-term health complications.

A randomized trial of aspirin on the risk of embolic events in patients with infective endocarditis.

Objectives: This study examined the effect of aspirin on the risk of embolic events in infective endocarditis (IE).

Background: Embolism is a major complication of IE, and studies in animal models have shown that platelet inhibition with aspirin can lead to more rapid vegetation resolution and a lower rate of embolic events.

Methods: We conducted a randomized, double-blinded, placebo-controlled trial of aspirin treatment (325 mg/day) for four weeks in patients with IE to test the hypothesis that the addition of aspirin would reduce the incidence of clinical systemic embolic events.