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Validation and Comparison of Seven Mortality Prediction Models for Hospitalized Patients With Acute Decompensated Heart Failure.

Circ Heart Fail

August 2016

From the Center for Quality of Care Research (T.L., P.S.P., M.-S.S., M.S., Q.R.P., G.V., M.T.S., P.K.L.), Division of Hospital Medicine, Department of Medicine (T.L., M.S., P.K.L.), and Division of Cardiology (Q.R.P., M.A.K., A.R.A., G.V., M.T.S.), Baystate Medical Center, Springfield, MA; Department of Medicine, Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, MA (T.L., M.S., Q.R.P., M.A.K., A.R.A., G.V., M.T.S., P.K.L.); and School of Public Health and Health Sciences, University of Massachusetts-Amherst (P.S.P.).

Background: Heart failure (HF) inpatient mortality prediction models can help clinicians make treatment decisions and researchers conduct observational studies; however, published models have not been validated in external populations.

Methods And Results: We compared the performance of 7 models that predict inpatient mortality in patients hospitalized with acute decompensated heart failure: 4 HF-specific mortality prediction models developed from 3 clinical databases (ADHERE [Acute Decompensated Heart Failure National Registry], EFFECT study [Enhanced Feedback for Effective Cardiac Treatment], and GWTG-HF registry [Get With the Guidelines-Heart Failure]); 2 administrative HF mortality prediction models (Premier, Premier+); and a model that uses clinical data but is not specific for HF (Laboratory-Based Acute Physiology Score [LAPS2]). Using a multihospital, electronic health record-derived data set (HealthFacts [Cerner Corp], 2010-2012), we identified patients ≥18 years admitted with HF.

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