Estimation of reproduction numbers in real time: Conceptual and statistical challenges.

The reproduction number has been a central metric of the COVID-19 pandemic response, published weekly by the UK government and regularly reported in the media. Here, we provide a formal definition and discuss the advantages and most common misconceptions around this quantity. We consider the intuition behind different formulations of , the complexities in its estimation (including the unavoidable lags involved), and its value compared to other indicators (e.

A Safe Governance Space for Humanity: Necessary Conditions for the Governance of Global Catastrophic Risks.

The world faces a multiplicity of global catastrophic risks (GCRs), whose functionality as individual and collective complex adaptive networks (CANs) poses unique problems for governance in a world that itself comprises an intricately interlinked set of CANs. Here we examine necessary conditions for new approaches to governance that consider the known properties of CANs-especially that small changes in one part of the system can cascade and amplify throughout the system and that the system as a whole can also undergo rapid, dramatic, and often unpredictable change with little or no warning.

Long-Term Outcomes in IgA Nephropathy.

Background: IgA nephropathy can progress to kidney failure, and risk assessment soon after diagnosis has advantages both for clinical management and the development of new therapeutics. We present relationships among proteinuria, eGFR slope, and lifetime risks for kidney failure.

Methods: The IgA nephropathy cohort (2299 adults and 140 children) of the UK National Registry of Rare Kidney Diseases (RaDaR) was analyzed.

Increased water temperature and turbidity act independently to alter social behavior in guppies ().

Changes in environmental conditions can shift the costs and benefits of aggregation or interfere with the sensory perception of near neighbors. This affects group cohesion with potential impacts on the benefits of collective behavior such as reduced predation risk. Organisms are rarely exposed to one stressor in isolation, yet there are only a few studies exploring the interactions between multiple stressors and their effects on social behavior.

Red deer blink more in larger groups.

Most animals need to spend time being vigilant for predators, at the expense of other activities such as foraging. Group-living animals can benefit from the shared vigilance effort of other group members, with individuals reducing personal vigilance effort as group size increases. Behaviors like active scanning or head lifting are usually used to quantify vigilance but may not be accurate measures of this.

Second Opinions for Patients With a Persistent Depressive Disorder: Effects on Severity of Depression and Quality of Life.

Background: A persistent depressive disorder has a major impact on both patients and health care systems. Despite the advice in guidelines to seek a second opinion if there is insufficient evidence of recovery after treatment, and the great number of second opinions in psychiatric care for patients with persistent depression, only a few studies have been published about their effects.

Methods: Multilevel analyses were conducted to compare the mean test scores of a group of patients with a persistent depressive disorder who received the intervention of a second opinion with scores from a matched control group, at 3 time points: baseline, intervention, and follow-up.

: An R package and Shiny app for producing PRISMA 2020-compliant flow diagrams, with interactivity for optimised digital transparency and Open Synthesis.

Background: Reporting standards, such as PRISMA aim to ensure that the methods and results of systematic reviews are described in sufficient detail to allow full transparency. Flow diagrams in evidence syntheses allow the reader to rapidly understand the core procedures used in a review and examine the attrition of irrelevant records throughout the review process. Recent research suggests that use of flow diagrams in systematic reviews is poor and of low quality and called for standardised templates to facilitate better reporting in flow diagrams.

The vibronic state dependent predissociation of HS: determination of all fragmentation processes.

Photochemistry plays a significant role in shaping the chemical reaction network in the solar nebula and interstellar clouds. However, even in a simple triatomic molecule photodissociation, determination of all fragmentation processes is yet to be achieved. In this work, we present a comprehensive study of the photochemistry of HS, derived from cutting-edge translational spectroscopy measurements of the H, S(D) and S(S) atom products formed by photolysis at wavelengths across the range 155-120 nm.

Breastfeeding and Later-Life Cardiometabolic Health in Women With and Without Hypertensive Disorders of Pregnancy.

Background Breastfeeding is associated with improved cardiometabolic profiles decades after pregnancy. Whether this association exists for women who experience hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP) is unknown. The authors examined whether breastfeeding duration or exclusivity are associated with long-term cardiometabolic health, and whether this relationship differs by HDP status.

The impact of cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) and Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) in a large contemporary cohort of patients undergoing robot-assisted radical cystectomy and intracorporeal urinary diversion (RARC-ICUD).

Objective: The aim of this study was to investigate whether pre-operative comorbidity status measured by the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) or cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) is associated with postoperative complications and length of stay (LOS) in patients undergoing robot-assisted radical cystectomy and intracorporeal urinary diversion (RARC-ICUD).

Patients And Methods: We conducted a retrospective study of a prospectively maintained database of 428 consecutive patients who underwent RARC-ICUD at a tertiary referral centre between 2011 and 2019. CCI was correlated with peri-operative outcomes including postoperative LOS, Clavien-Dindo (CD) complications and survival.

A multicenter randomized trial for quality of life evaluation by non-invasive intelligent tools during post-curative treatment follow-up for head and neck cancer: Clinical study protocol.

Patients surviving head and neck cancer (HNC) suffer from high physical, psychological, and socioeconomic burdens. Achieving cancer-free survival with an optimal quality of life (QoL) is the primary goal for HNC patient management. So, maintaining lifelong surveillance is critical.

Fluctuations of cell geometry and their nonequilibrium thermodynamics in living epithelial tissue.

We measure different contributions to entropy production in a living functional epithelial tissue. We do this by extracting the functional dynamics of development while at the same time quantifying fluctuations. Using the translucent Drosophila melanogaster pupal epithelium as an ideal tissue for high-resolution live imaging, we measure the entropy associated with the stochastic geometry of cells in the epithelium.

An epigenetic DNA methylation clock for age estimates in Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins ().

Knowledge of an animal's chronological age is crucial for understanding and predicting population demographics, survival and reproduction, but accurate age determination for many wild animals remains challenging. Previous methods to estimate age require invasive procedures, such as tooth extraction to analyse growth layers, which are difficult to carry out with large, mobile animals such as cetaceans. However, recent advances in epigenetic methods have opened new avenues for precise age determination.

Towards evolutionary predictions: Current promises and challenges.

Evolution has traditionally been a historical and descriptive science, and predicting future evolutionary processes has long been considered impossible. However, evolutionary predictions are increasingly being developed and used in medicine, agriculture, biotechnology and conservation biology. Evolutionary predictions may be used for different purposes, such as to prepare for the future, to try and change the course of evolution or to determine how well we understand evolutionary processes.

Nocturnal surveys of lined seahorses reveal increased densities and seasonal recruitment patterns.

Although the nighttime ecology of organisms remains understudied, nocturnal surveys play an integral part in assessing fish assemblages and the selective forces shaping them. Eleuthera (Bahamas) contains an unusual population of lined seahorses () in an anchialine lake, possessing morphological characteristics distinct from those found in the ocean. Population surveys for seahorses and their potential predators were conducted at midnight and midday during wet and dry seasons, with belt transects perpendicular to the shoreline that increased in depth away from shore.

The spectral composition of a white light influences its attractiveness to mosquitoes.

Insect attraction to artificial light can potentially facilitate disease transmission by increasing contact between humans and vectors. Previous research has identified specific wavelength bands, such as yellow and red, that are unattractive to biting flies. However, narrow-band, non-white lights are unsuitable for home lighting use as their very poor color rendering is often considered aesthetically undesirable.

[The PRISMA 2020 statement: an updated guideline for reporting systematic reviewsDeclaración PRISMA 2020: una guía actualizada para la publicación de revisiones sistemáticas].

The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement, published in 2009, was designed to help systematic reviewers transparently report why the review was done, what the authors did, and what they found. Over the past decade, advances in systematic review methodology and terminology have necessitated an update to the guideline. The PRISMA 2020 statement replaces the 2009 statement and includes new reporting guidance that reflects advances in methods to identify, select, appraise, and synthesise studies.

On the Use of High-Resolution and Deep-Learning Seismic Catalogs for Short-Term Earthquake Forecasts: Potential Benefits and Current Limitations.

Enhanced earthquake catalogs provide detailed images of evolving seismic sequences. Currently, these data sets take some time to be released but will soon become available in real time. Here, we explore whether and how enhanced seismic catalogs feeding into established short-term earthquake forecasting protocols may result in higher predictive skill.

Ice Sheet and Climate Processes Driving the Uncertainty in Projections of Future Sea Level Rise: Findings From a Structured Expert Judgement Approach.

The ice sheets covering Antarctica and Greenland present the greatest uncertainty in, and largest potential contribution to, future sea level rise. The uncertainty arises from a paucity of suitable observations covering the full range of ice sheet behaviors, incomplete understanding of the influences of diverse processes, and limitations in defining key boundary conditions for the numerical models. To investigate the impact of these uncertainties on ice sheet projections we undertook a structured expert judgement study.

A High-End Estimate of Sea Level Rise for Practitioners.

Sea level rise (SLR) is a long-lasting consequence of climate change because global anthropogenic warming takes centuries to millennia to equilibrate for the deep ocean and ice sheets. SLR projections based on climate models support policy analysis, risk assessment and adaptation planning today, despite their large uncertainties. The central range of the SLR distribution is estimated by process-based models.

We need to talk about validity - A commentary on "Six solutions for more reliable infant research" from the viewpoint of an early executive functions researcher.

Unlabelled: In their methodological article, "Six solutions for more reliable infant research", Byers-Heinlein, Bergmann and Savalei (2021) present compelling arguments for why developmental researchers should report and consider measures of reliability more frequently in their work. They also provide useful guidance on solutions to this "reliability crisis". In this commentary, I highlight a further methodological aspect that I think is key to successful and robust infancy research, that of construct validity.

Benthic Dissolved Silicon and Iron Cycling at Glaciated Patagonian Fjord Heads.

Glacier meltwater supplies silicon (Si) and iron (Fe) sourced from weathered bedrock to downstream ecosystems. However, the extent to which these nutrients reach the ocean is regulated by the nature of the benthic cycling of dissolved Si and Fe within fjord systems, given the rapid deposition of reactive particulate fractions at fjord heads. Here, we examine the benthic cycling of the two nutrients at four Patagonian fjord heads through geochemical analyses of sediment pore waters, including Si and Fe isotopes (δSi and δFe), and reaction-transport modeling for Si.

The Transient Sea Level Response to External Forcing in CMIP6 Models.

Earth is warming and sea levels are rising as land-based ice is lost to melt, and oceans expand due to accumulation of heat. The pace of ice loss and steric expansion is linked to the intensity of warming. How much faster sea level will rise as climate warms is, however, highly uncertain and difficult to model.