Trends and fluctuations in the severity of interstate wars.

Since 1945, there have been relatively few large interstate wars, especially compared to the preceding 30 years, which included both World Wars. This pattern, sometimes called the long peace, is highly controversial. Does it represent an enduring trend caused by a genuine change in the underlying conflict-generating processes? Or is it consistent with a highly variable but otherwise stable system of conflict? Using the empirical distributions of interstate war sizes and onset times from 1823 to 2003, we parameterize stationary models of conflict generation that can distinguish trends from statistical fluctuations in the statistics of war.

Enhanced identification of synergistic and antagonistic emergent interactions among three or more drugs.

Interactions among drugs play a critical role in the killing efficacy of multi-drug treatments. Recent advances in theory and experiment for three-drug interactions enable the search for emergent interactions-ones not predictable from pairwise interactions. Previous work has shown it is easier to detect synergies and antagonisms among pairwise interactions when a rescaling method is applied to the interaction metric.

An algorithm for designing minimal microbial communities with desired metabolic capacities.

Motivation: Recent efforts to manipulate various microbial communities, such as fecal microbiota transplant and bioreactor systems' optimization, suggest a promising route for microbial community engineering with numerous medical, environmental and industrial applications. However, such applications are currently restricted in scale and often rely on mimicking or enhancing natural communities, calling for the development of tools for designing synthetic communities with specific, tailored, desired metabolic capacities.

Results: Here, we present a first step toward this goal, introducing a novel algorithm for identifying minimal sets of microbial species that collectively provide the enzymatic capacity required to synthesize a set of desired target product metabolites from a predefined set of available substrates.

Larval starvation improves metabolic response to adult starvation in honey bees (Apis mellifera L.).

Environmental changes during development have long-term effects on adult phenotypes in diverse organisms. Some of the effects play important roles in helping organisms adapt to different environments, such as insect polymorphism. Others, especially those resulting from an adverse developmental environment, have a negative effect on adult health and fitness.

Starvation stress during larval development facilitates an adaptive response in adult worker honey bees (Apis mellifera L.).

Most organisms are constantly faced with environmental changes and stressors. In diverse organisms, there is an anticipatory mechanism during development that can program adult phenotypes. The adult phenotype would be adapted to the predicted environment that occurred during organism maturation.

A simple rule for the evolution of contingent cooperation in large groups.

Humans cooperate in large groups of unrelated individuals, and many authors have argued that such cooperation is sustained by contingent reward and punishment. However, such sanctioning systems can also stabilize a wide range of behaviours, including mutually deleterious behaviours. Moreover, it is very likely that large-scale cooperation is derived in the human lineage.

Coupled catastrophes: sudden shifts cascade and hop among interdependent systems.

An important challenge in several disciplines is to understand how sudden changes can propagate among coupled systems. Examples include the synchronization of business cycles, population collapse in patchy ecosystems, markets shifting to a new technology platform, collapses in prices and in confidence in financial markets, and protests erupting in multiple countries. A number of mathematical models of these phenomena have multiple equilibria separated by saddle-node bifurcations.

Single-Genome Sequencing of Hepatitis C Virus in Donor-Recipient Pairs Distinguishes Modes and Models of Virus Transmission and Early Diversification.

Unlabelled: Despite the recent development of highly effective anti-hepatitis C virus (HCV) drugs, the global burden of this pathogen remains immense. Control or eradication of HCV will likely require the broad application of antiviral drugs and development of an effective vaccine. A precise molecular identification of transmitted/founder (T/F) HCV genomes that lead to productive clinical infection could play a critical role in vaccine research, as it has for HIV-1.

ECOLOGICAL THEORY. A general consumer-resource population model.

Food-web dynamics arise from predator-prey, parasite-host, and herbivore-plant interactions. Models for such interactions include up to three consumer activity states (questing, attacking, consuming) and up to four resource response states (susceptible, exposed, ingested, resistant). Articulating these states into a general model allows for dissecting, comparing, and deriving consumer-resource models.

Potential unsatisfiability of cyclic constraints on stochastic biological networks biases selection towards hierarchical architectures.

Constraints placed upon the phenotypes of organisms result from their interactions with the environment. Over evolutionary time scales, these constraints feed back onto smaller molecular subnetworks comprising the organism. The evolution of biological networks is studied by considering a network of a few nodes embedded in a larger context.

Inclusive fitness and differential productivity across the life course determine intergenerational transfers in a small-scale human society.

Transfers of resources between generations are an essential element in current models of human life-history evolution accounting for prolonged development, extended lifespan and menopause. Integrating these models with Hamilton's theory of inclusive fitness, we predict that the interaction of biological kinship with the age-schedule of resource production should be a key driver of intergenerational transfers. In the empirical case of Tsimane' forager-horticulturalists in Bolivian Amazonia, we provide a detailed characterization of net transfers of food according to age, sex, kinship and the net need of donors and recipients.

Impact of clade, geography, and age of the epidemic on HIV-1 neutralization by antibodies.

Unlabelled: Neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) are a high priority for vaccines that aim to prevent the acquisition of HIV-1 infection. Vaccine effectiveness will depend on the extent to which induced antibodies neutralize the global diversity of circulating HIV-1 variants. Using large panels of genetically and geographically diverse HIV-1 Env-pseudotyped viruses and chronic infection plasma samples, we unambiguously show that cross-clade nAb responses are commonly induced in response to infection by any virus clade.

The scaling of human interactions with city size.

The size of cities is known to play a fundamental role in social and economic life. Yet, its relation to the structure of the underlying network of human interactions has not been investigated empirically in detail. In this paper, we map society-wide communication networks to the urban areas of two European countries.