The global implications of a Russian gas pivot to Asia.

Recent years have seen unprecedented shifts in global natural gas trade, precipitated in large part by Russia's war on Ukraine. How this regional conflict impacts the future of natural gas markets is subject to three interconnected factors: (i) Russia's strategy to regain markets for its gas exports; (ii) Europe's push towards increased liquified natural gas (LNG) and the pace of its low carbon transition; and (iii) China's gas demand and how it balances its climate and energy security objectives. A scenario modelling approach is applied to explore the potential implications of this geopolitical crisis.

Lower margins are tied to companies' climate performance rather than to low-carbon assets.

Lenders are likely to face significant financial risks from the shift to a low-carbon economy, but it remains unclear whether such risks are incorporated into their lending practices. The extent of this risk depends on whether banks incorporate such risks into their lending activity and whether financial instruments' tenors are long enough to cover the period when such risks materialize. Using a case study of shipping loans, we combine quantitative data and semi-structured interviews with key shipping debt providers.

No new fossil fuel projects: The norm we need.

A social-moral norm against new fossil fuel projects has strong potential to contribute to achieving global climate goals.

International food trade contributes to dietary risks and mortality at global, regional and national levels.

Food trade is generally perceived to increase the availability and diversity of foods available to consumers, but there is little empirical evidence on its implications for human health. Here we show that a substantial proportion of dietary risks and diet-related mortality worldwide is attributable to international food trade and that whether the contributions of food trade are positive or negative depends on the types of food traded. Using bilateral trade data for 2019 and food-specific risk-disease relationships, we estimate that imports of fruits, vegetables, legumes and nuts improved dietary risks in the importing countries and were associated with a reduction in mortality from non-communicable diseases of ~1.

Global fossil fuel reduction pathways under different climate mitigation strategies and ambitions.

The mitigation scenarios database of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Sixth Assessment Report is an important resource for informing policymaking on energy transitions. However, there is a large variety of models, scenario designs, and resulting outputs. Here we analyse the scenarios consistent with limiting warming to 2 °C or below regarding the speed, trajectory, and feasibility of different fossil fuel reduction pathways.

BoatNet: automated small boat composition detection using deep learning on satellite imagery.

Tracking and measuring national carbon footprints is key to achieving the ambitious goals set by the Paris Agreement on carbon emissions. According to statistics, more than 10% of global transportation carbon emissions result from shipping. However, accurate tracking of the emissions of the small boat segment is not well established.

Fossil extraction bans and carbon taxes: Assessing their interplay through multiple models.

Given concerns about the ambition and effectiveness of current climate policies, a case has been made for the combination of demand side policies such as carbon pricing with supply side bans on fossil fuel extraction. However, little is known about their interplay in the context of climate stabilization strategies. Here, we present a multi-model assessment quantifying the effectiveness of supply side policies and their interactions with demand-side ones.

Demand response with heat pumps: Practical implementation of three different control options.

Unlabelled: The electrification of heating and transport and decarbonisation of supply creates a need for demand side flexibility to balance the grid. Heat pumps are expected to form a major part of heat delivery, and many modelling studies have investigated the technical potential of heat pump demand response. However, little empirical work has been reported on the practical implementation of such demand response in occupied homes.

The 2022 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: health at the mercy of fossil fuels.

Unlabelled: The 2022 report of the Countdown is published as the world confronts profound and concurrent systemic shocks. Countries and health systems continue to contend with the health, social, and economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, while Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a persistent fossil fuel overdependence has pushed the world into global energy and cost-of-living crises. As these crises unfold, climate change escalates unabated.

Concerns about academic freedom caused by the Russia-Ukraine War.

Russia's war against Ukraine has raised concerns not about the fate of Ukrainian science and scientists but also academic freedom and international cooperation in science.

A population-based study of 92 clinically recognized risk factors for heart failure: co-occurrence, prognosis and preventive potential.

Aims: Primary prevention strategies for heart failure (HF) have had limited success, possibly due to a wide range of underlying risk factors (RFs). Systematic evaluations of the prognostic burden and preventive potential across this wide range of risk factors are lacking. We aimed at estimating evidence, prevalence and co-occurrence for primary prevention and impact on prognosis of RFs for incident HF.

Residential energy efficiency interventions: A meta-analysis of effectiveness studies.

Background: The residential sector releases around 17% of global greenhouse gas emissions and making residential buildings more energy efficient can help mitigate climate change. Engineering models are often used to predict the effects of residential energy efficiency interventions (REEI) on energy consumption, but empirical studies find that these models often over-estimate the actual impact of REEI installation. Different empirical studies often estimate different impacts for the same REEI, possibly due to variations in implementation, climate and population.

PROTOCOL: Residential energy efficiency interventions: An effectiveness systematic review.

This review aims to identify, appraise and synthesise the evidence available on the effectiveness of energy efficiency measure installations, including those bundled with behavioural interventions. The synthesis will estimate the overall impact of these interventions as well as examine possible causes of variation in impacts. We will also attempt to assess the cost-effectiveness of residential energy efficiency interventions.

The 2021 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: code red for a healthy future.

Unlabelled: The Countdown is an international collaboration that independently monitors the health consequences of a changing climate. Publishing updated, new, and improved indicators each year, the Countdown represents the consensus of leading researchers from 43 academic institutions and UN agencies. The 44 indicators of this report expose an unabated rise in the health impacts of climate change and the current health consequences of the delayed and inconsistent response of countries around the globe—providing a clear imperative for accelerated action that puts the health of people and planet above all else.

A review of stakeholders and interventions in Nigeria's electricity sector.

In this paper, we explored the interplay between the electricity market structure, methods of electricity trading and different stakeholder dynamics within the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI) with a view to understanding how these interplays impact on various forms of interventions in the Nigerian electricity sector. We started off by exploring the market structure and electricity trading system within the Nigerian electricity sector and reviewed the various stakeholder groups within centralized and decentralized electricity systems in Nigeria's electricity sector by highlighting their core responsibilities and the dynamics at play in satisfying their interests. This study revealed that: (1) external stakeholder groups (such as donor agencies and multi-lateral organizations) exert more influence in Nigeria's electricity sector through financial interventions; (2) lack of coordination and engagement among various stakeholder groups pose a challenge to effective electricity infrastructure interventions that address the needs of people in society.

Unextractable fossil fuels in a 1.5 °C world.

Parties to the 2015 Paris Agreement pledged to limit global warming to well below 2 °C and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial times. However, fossil fuels continue to dominate the global energy system and a sharp decline in their use must be realized to keep the temperature increase below 1.

Higher cost of finance exacerbates a climate investment trap in developing economies.

Finance is vital for the green energy transition, but access to low cost finance is uneven as the cost of capital differs substantially between regions. This study shows how modelled decarbonisation pathways for developing economies are disproportionately impacted by different weighted average cost of capital (WACC) assumptions. For example, representing regionally-specific WACC values indicates 35% lower green electricity production in Africa for a cost-optimal 2 °C pathway than when regional considerations are ignored.

Associations between indoor temperature, self-rated health and socioeconomic position in a cross-sectional study of adults in England.

Objective: Excess winter deaths are a major public health concern in England and Wales, with an average of 20 000 deaths per year since 2010. Feeling cold at home during winter is associated with reporting poor general health; cold and damp homes have greater prevalence in lower socioeconomic groups. Overheating in the summer also has adverse health consequences.

Health care's response to climate change: a carbon footprint assessment of the NHS in England.

Background: Climate change threatens to undermine the past 50 years of gains in public health. In response, the National Health Service (NHS) in England has been working since 2008 to quantify and reduce its carbon footprint. This Article presents the latest update to its greenhouse gas accounting, identifying interventions for mitigation efforts and describing an approach applicable to other health systems across the world.

The public health implications of the Paris Agreement: a modelling study.

Background: nationally determined contributions (NDCs) serve to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement of staying "well below 2°C", which could also yield substantial health co-benefits in the process. However, existing NDC commitments are inadequate to achieve this goal. Placing health as a key focus of the NDCs could present an opportunity to increase ambition and realise health co-benefits.

Guidelines for Modeling and Reporting Health Effects of Climate Change Mitigation Actions.

Background: Modeling suggests that climate change mitigation actions can have substantial human health benefits that accrue quickly and locally. Documenting the benefits can help drive more ambitious and health-protective climate change mitigation actions; however, documenting the adverse health effects can help to avoid them. Estimating the health effects of mitigation (HEM) actions can help policy makers prioritize investments based not only on mitigation potential but also on expected health benefits.