Modelling testing and response strategies for COVID-19 outbreaks in remote Australian Aboriginal communities.

Background: Remote Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities have potential to be severely impacted by COVID-19, with multiple factors predisposing to increased transmission and disease severity. Our modelling aims to inform optimal public health responses.

Methods: An individual-based simulation model represented SARS-CoV2 transmission in communities ranging from 100 to 3500 people, comprised of large, interconnected households.

Changes in bone microarchitecture following parathyroidectomy in patients with secondary hyperparathyroidism.

Background: Secondary hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) has a significant effect on bone, affecting both trabecular and cortical compartments. Although parathyroidectomy results in biochemical improvement in mineral metabolism, changes in bone microarchitecture as evaluated by high-resolution imaging modalities are not known. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) provides in-depth three-dimensional assessment of bone microarchitecture, as well as determination of mechanical bone strength determined by finite element analysis (FEA).

Development of an influenza pandemic decision support tool linking situational analytics to national response policy.

National influenza pandemic plans have evolved substantially over recent decades, as has the scientific research that underpins the advice contained within them. While the knowledge generated by many research activities has been directly incorporated into the current generation of pandemic plans, scientists and policymakers are yet to capitalise fully on the potential for near real-time analytics to formally contribute to epidemic decision-making. Theoretical studies demonstrate that it is now possible to make robust estimates of pandemic impact in the earliest stages of a pandemic using first few hundred household cohort (FFX) studies and algorithms designed specifically for analysing FFX data.

Modelling the Effect of MUC1 on Influenza Virus Infection Kinetics and Macrophage Dynamics.

MUC1 belongs to the family of cell surface (cs-) mucins. Experimental evidence indicates that its presence reduces in vivo influenza viral infection severity. However, the mechanisms by which MUC1 influences viral dynamics and the host immune response are not yet well understood, limiting our ability to predict the efficacy of potential treatments that target MUC1.

Risk mapping for COVID-19 outbreaks in Australia using mobility data.

COVID-19 is highly transmissible and containing outbreaks requires a rapid and effective response. Because infection may be spread by people who are pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic, substantial undetected transmission is likely to occur before clinical cases are diagnosed. Thus, when outbreaks occur there is a need to anticipate which populations and locations are at heightened risk of exposure.

Nurse Led Smartphone Electrographic Monitoring for Atrial Fibrillation after Ischemic Stroke: SPOT-AF.

Background And Purpose: Paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF) underlying acute stroke frequently evades detection by standard practice, considered to be a combination of routine electrocardiogram (ECG) monitoring, and 24-hour Holter recordings. We hypothesized that nurse-led in-hospital intermittent monitoring approach would increase PAF detection rate.

Methods: We recruited patients hospitalised for stroke/transient ischemic attack, without history of atrial fibrillation (AF), in a prospective multi-centre observational study.

Estimation of the force of infection and infectious period of skin sores in remote Australian communities using interval-censored data.

Prevalence of impetigo (skin sores) remains high in remote Australian Aboriginal communities, Fiji, and other areas of socio-economic disadvantage. Skin sore infections, driven primarily in these settings by Group A Streptococcus (GAS) contribute substantially to the disease burden in these areas. Despite this, estimates for the force of infection, infectious period and basic reproductive ratio-all necessary for the construction of dynamic transmission models-have not been obtained.

Modelling within-host macrophage dynamics in influenza virus infection.

Human respiratory disease associated with influenza virus infection is of significant public health concern. Macrophages, as part of the front line of host innate cellular defence, have been shown to play an important role in controlling viral replication. However, fatal outcomes of infection, as evidenced in patients infected with highly pathogenic viral strains, are often associated with prompt activation and excessive accumulation of macrophages.

Antimicrobial stewardship in remote primary healthcare across northern Australia.

Background: The high burden of infectious disease and associated antimicrobial use likely contribute to the emergence of antimicrobial resistance in remote Australian Aboriginal communities. We aimed to develop and apply context-specific tools to audit antimicrobial use in the remote primary healthcare setting.

Methods: We adapted the General Practice version of the National Antimicrobial Prescribing Survey (GP NAPS) tool to audit antimicrobial use over 2-3 weeks in 15 remote primary healthcare clinics across the Kimberley region of Western Australia (03/2018-06/2018), Top End of the Northern Territory (08/2017-09/2017) and far north Queensland (05/2018-06/2018).

Bone microarchitecture in patients undergoing parathyroidectomy for management of secondary hyperparathyroidism.

Background: Secondary hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) leads to complex bone disease, affecting both trabecular and cortical bone, and increased fracture risk. Optimal assessment of bone in patients with CKD is yet to be determined. High-resolution magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) can provide three-dimensional assessment of bone microarchitecture, as well as determination of mechanical strength with finite element analysis (FEA).

An Activation-Clearance Model for Plasmodium vivax Malaria.

Malaria is an infectious disease with an immense global health burden. Plasmodium vivax is the most geographically widespread species of malaria. Relapsing infections, caused by the activation of liver-stage parasites known as hypnozoites, are a critical feature of the epidemiology of Plasmodium vivax.

Infectious disease pandemic planning and response: Incorporating decision analysis.

Freya Shearer and co-authors discuss the use of decision analysis in planning for infectious disease pandemics.

Profiling Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission and the resulting disease burden in the five highest tuberculosis burden countries.

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) control efforts are hampered by an imperfect understanding of TB epidemiology. The true age distribution of disease is unknown because a large proportion of individuals with active TB remain undetected. Understanding of transmission is limited by the asymptomatic nature of latent infection and the pathogen's capacity for late reactivation.

Health outcomes of iron supplementation and/or food fortification in iron-replete children aged 4-24 months: protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Direct supplementation or food fortification with iron are two public health initiatives intended to reduce the prevalence of iron deficiency (ID) and iron deficiency anaemia (IDA) in 4-24-month-old infants. In most high-income countries where IDA prevalence is < 15%, the recommended daily intake levels of iron from supplements and/or consumption of fortified food products are at odds with World Health Organisation (WHO) guidelines that recommend shorter-term (3 months/year) supplementation only in populations with IDA prevalence > 40%. Emerging concerns about delayed neurological effects of early-life iron overexposure have raised questions as to whether recommended guidelines in high-income countries are unnecessarily excessive.

High burden of infectious disease and antibiotic use in early life in Australian Aboriginal communities.

Objective: To quantify the childhood infectious disease burden and antibiotic use in the Northern Territory's East Arnhem region through synthesis and analysis of historical data resources.

Methods: We combined primary health clinic data originally reported in three separate publications stemming from the East Arnhem Healthy Skin Project (Jan-01 to Sep-07). Common statistical techniques were used to explore the prevalence of infectious conditions and the seasonality of infections, and to measure rates of antibiotic use.

Accounting for Healthcare-Seeking Behaviours and Testing Practices in Real-Time Influenza Forecasts.

For diseases such as influenza, where the majority of infected persons experience mild (if any) symptoms, surveillance systems are sensitive to changes in healthcare-seeking and clinical decision-making behaviours. This presents a challenge when trying to interpret surveillance data in near-real-time (e.g.

Investigation of group A Streptococcus immune responses in an endemic setting, with a particular focus on J8.

Sustained control of group A Streptococcus (GAS) infections in settings of poverty has proven to be challenging, and an effective vaccine may be the most practical long-term strategy to reduce GAS-related disease burden. Candidate GAS vaccines based on the J8 peptide have demonstrated promising immunogenicity in mice, however, less is known about the role of J8 antibodies in the human immune response to GAS infection. We analysed the stimulation of J8 antibodies in response to infection, and the role of existing J8 antibodies in protection against subsequent infection, using data collected in the Fijian population: (1) cross sectional population serosurvey; (2) paired serum collection for assessment of M-specific and J8 antibody responses; and (3) longitudinal assessment of GAS infection and immunity.

A biological model of scabies infection dynamics and treatment informs mass drug administration strategies to increase the likelihood of elimination.

Infections with Sarcoptes scabiei, or scabies, remain common in many disadvantaged populations. Mass drug administration (MDA) has been used in such settings to achieve a rapid reduction in infection and transmission, with the goal of eliminating the public health burden of scabies. While prevalence has been observed to fall substantially following such an intervention, in some instances resurgence of infection to baseline levels has occurred over several years.

Scabies and risk of skin sores in remote Australian Aboriginal communities: A self-controlled case series study.

Background: Skin sores caused by Group A streptococcus (GAS) infection are a major public health problem in remote Aboriginal communities. Skin sores are often associated with scabies, which is evident in scabies intervention programs where a significant reduction of skin sores is seen after focusing solely on scabies control. Our study quantifies the strength of association between skin sores and scabies among Aboriginal children from the East Arnhem region in the Northern Territory.

Gene exchange drives the ecological success of a multi-host bacterial pathogen.

The capacity for some pathogens to jump into different host-species populations is a major threat to public health and food security. Staphylococcus aureus is a multi-host bacterial pathogen responsible for important human and livestock diseases. Here, using a population-genomic approach, we identify humans as a major hub for ancient and recent S.

Calculation of the age of the first infection for skin sores and scabies in five remote communities in northern Australia.

Prevalence of skin sores and scabies in remote Australian Aboriginal communities remains unacceptably high, with Group A Streptococcus (GAS) the dominant pathogen. We aim to better understand the drivers of GAS transmission using mathematical models. To estimate the force of infection, we quantified the age of first skin sores and scabies infection by pooling historical data from three studies conducted across five remote Aboriginal communities for children born between 2001 and 2005.