Epidemic forecasts as a tool for public health: interpretation and (re)calibration.

Objective: Recent studies have used Bayesian methods to predict timing of influenza epidemics many weeks in advance, but there is no documented evaluation of how such forecasts might support the day-to-day operations of public health staff.

Methods: During the 2015 influenza season in Melbourne, Australia, weekly forecasts were presented at Health Department surveillance unit meetings, where they were evaluated and updated in light of expert opinion to improve their accuracy and usefulness.

Results: Predictive capacity of the model was substantially limited by delays in reporting and processing arising from an unprecedented number of notifications, disproportionate to seasonal intensity.

Refining the ischemic penumbra with topography.

It has been 40 years since the ischemic penumbra was first conceptualized through work on animal models. The topography of penumbra has been portrayed as an infarcted core surrounded by penumbral tissue and an extreme rim of oligemic tissue. This picture has been used in many review articles and textbooks before the advent of modern imaging.

Indigenous Australian household structure: a simple data collection tool and implications for close contact transmission of communicable diseases.

Households are an important location for the transmission of communicable diseases. Social contact between household members is typically more frequent, of greater intensity, and is more likely to involve people of different age groups than contact occurring in the general community. Understanding household structure in different populations is therefore fundamental to explaining patterns of disease transmission in these populations.

Vaccine efficacy against Indonesian Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1: systematic review and meta-analysis.

Indonesia has implemented multiple strategies to control Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 (HPAI/H5N1), including the licensure and use of multiple vaccine formulations. The continuous drift of Indonesian HPAI/H5N1 viruses and emergence of a new clade in 2012 that became dominant in 2016, demands the assessment of commercial vaccine formulations against Indonesian field viruses. Seven databases were explored to identify relevant literature reporting performance of commercial vaccines against Indonesian HPAI/H5N1 viruses.

Difficulties with assessment and management of an infant's distress in the postoperative period: Optimising opportunities for interdisciplinary information-sharing.

Objectives: The importance of accurate paediatric patient assessment is well established but under-utilised in managing postoperative medication regimens.

Methods: Data for this case report were collected through observations of clinical practice, conduct of interviews, and retrieval of information from the medical record. This case report involving a hospitalised 1-year-old boy demonstrates the difficulties associated with assessing and managing postoperative distress, including pain and other clinical conditions related to the surgical procedure.

The role of adenosine challenge in catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Aims: Adenosine may unmask dormant PV conduction and facilitate consolidation of PV isolation. We performed a meta-analysis to determine the impact of adenosine administration on clinical outcomes in patients undergoing PVI.

Methods: References and electronic databases reporting AF ablation and adenosine following PVI were searched through to 22nd November 2015.

Dynamics of circulating hypoxia-mediated miRNAs and tumor response in patients with high-grade glioma treated with bevacizumab.

OBJECTIVE Bevacizumab is an antiangiogenic agent under investigation for use in patients with high-grade glioma. It produces a high rate of radiological response; however, this response should be interpreted with caution because it may reflect normalization of the tumor vasculature and not necessarily a true antitumor effect. The authors previously demonstrated that 4 hypoxia-mediated microRNAs (miRNA)-miR-210, miR-21, miR-10b, and miR-196b-are upregulated in glioma as compared with normal brain tissue.

Characterisation of an OCS-dependent severe asthma population treated with mepolizumab.

Unlabelled: A subpopulation of patients with asthma treated with maximal inhaled treatments is unable to maintain asthma control and requires additional therapy with oral corticosteroids (OCS); a subset of this population continues to have frequent exacerbations. Alternate treatment options are needed as daily use of OCS is associated with significant systemic adverse effects that affect many body systems and have a direct association with the dose and duration of OCS use. We compared the population demographics, medical conditions and efficacy responses of the OCS-dependent group from the DREAM study of mepolizumab with the group not managed with daily OCS.

Yield from colonoscopic screening in people with a strong family history of common colorectal cancer.

Background And Aims: People with a strong family history of common (so-called 'sporadic') colorectal cancer are generally advised to undergo colonoscopic screening, but the starting age for this is unclear. An audit was performed to study the age-related yield of screening colonoscopy in this risk group.

Methods: A prospective audit of the outcome of screening colonoscopy was performed on a cohort of 232 people with a strong family history of common colorectal cancer.