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Probabilistic reanalysis of storm surge extremes in Europe.

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A

January 2020

Department of Oceanography and Global Change, Mediterranean Institute for Advanced Studies, Spanish National Research Council and University of the Balearic Islands (CSIC-UIB), Esporles 07190, Spain.

Article Synopsis
  • Extreme sea levels pose risks to life, property, and the environment, and managing these threats relies on understanding the probabilities of extreme events through statistical analysis.
  • Traditional methods are limited due to few recorded extreme events and availability only at specific gauged locations, leading to uncertainties in risk mitigation.
  • This study introduces a Bayesian hierarchical model that combines tide gauge data to better estimate surge extremes across time and space, improving accuracy and enabling estimations for areas without gauges.
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