The scale and dynamics of COVID-19 epidemics across Europe.

The number of COVID-19 deaths reported from European countries has varied more than 100-fold. In terms of coronavirus transmission, the relatively low death rates in some countries could be due to low intrinsic (e.g.

Isoniazid preventive therapy plus antiretroviral therapy for the prevention of tuberculosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis of individual participant data.

Background: Isoniazid preventive therapy prevents active tuberculosis in people with HIV, but previous studies have found no evidence of benefit in people with HIV who had a negative tuberculin skin test, and a non-significant effect on mortality. We aimed to estimate the effect of isoniazid preventive therapy given with antiretroviral therapy (ART) for the prevention of tuberculosis and death among people with HIV across population subgroups.

Methods: We searched PubMed, Embase, the Cochrane database, and conference abstracts from database inception to Jan 15, 2019, to identify potentially eligible randomised trials.

Response strategies for COVID-19 epidemics in African settings: a mathematical modelling study.

Background: The health impact of COVID-19 may differ in African settings as compared to countries in Europe or China due to demographic, epidemiological, environmental and socio-economic factors. We evaluated strategies to reduce SARS-CoV-2 burden in African countries, so as to support decisions that balance minimising mortality, protecting health services and safeguarding livelihoods.

Methods: We used a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered mathematical model, stratified by age, to predict the evolution of COVID-19 epidemics in three countries representing a range of age distributions in Africa (from oldest to youngest average age: Mauritius, Nigeria and Niger), under various effectiveness assumptions for combinations of different non-pharmaceutical interventions: self-isolation of symptomatic people, physical distancing and 'shielding' (physical isolation) of the high-risk population.

Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths.

We estimate the number of COVID-19 cases from newly reported deaths in a population without previous reports. Our results suggest that by the time a single death occurs, hundreds to thousands of cases are likely to be present in that population. This suggests containment via contact tracing will be challenging at this point, and other response strategies should be considered.

Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths.

We estimate the number of COVID-19 cases from newly reported deaths in a population without previous reports. Our results suggest that by the time a single death occurs, hundreds to thousands of cases are likely to be present in that population. This suggests containment via contact tracing will be challenging at this point, and other response strategies should be considered.

Rates and Correlates of HIV Incidence in Namibia's Zambezi Region From 2014 to 2016: Sentinel, Community-Based Cohort Study.

Background: Direct measures of HIV incidence are needed to assess the population-level impact of prevention programs but are scarcely available in the subnational epidemic hotspots of sub-Saharan Africa. We created a sentinel HIV incidence cohort within a community-based program that provided home-based HIV testing to all residents of Namibia's Zambezi region, where approximately 24% of the adult population was estimated to be living with HIV.

Objective: The aim of this study was to estimate HIV incidence, detect correlates of HIV acquisition, and assess the feasibility of the sentinel, community-based approach to HIV incidence surveillance in a subnational epidemic hotspot.

Does economic growth reduce childhood stunting? A multicountry analysis of 89 Demographic and Health Surveys in sub-Saharan Africa.

Background: There is mixed evidence and lack of consensus on the impact of economic development on stunting, and likewise there is a dearth of empirical studies on this relationship in the case of sub-Saharan Africa. Thus, this paper examines whether economic growth is associated with childhood stunting in low-income and middle-income sub-Saharan African countries.

Methods: We analysed data from 89 Demographic and Health Surveys conducted between 1987 and 2016 available as of October 2018 using multivariable multilevel logistic regression models to show the association between gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and stunting.

Modelling the impact of maternal HIV on uninfected children: correcting current estimates.

A mathematical model, populated primarily with data from South Africa, was developed to model the numbers of children affected by maternal HIV, and the number who will experience long-term negative developmental consequences. A micro-simulation model generated two scenarios. The first simulated a cohort of women whose HIV status mimicked that of a target population, and mother-child dyads by way of age- and disease-specific fertility rates.

Designing effective control of dengue with combined interventions.

Viruses transmitted by mosquitoes, such as dengue, Zika, and chikungunya, have expanding ranges and seem unabated by current vector control programs. Effective control of these pathogens likely requires integrated approaches. We evaluated dengue management options in an endemic setting that combine novel vector control and vaccination using an agent-based model for Yucatán, Mexico, fit to 37 y of data.

Optimising targets for tsetse control: Taking a fly's-eye-view to improve the colour of synthetic fabrics.

The savannah tsetse flies, Glossina morsitans morsitans and G. pallidipes, are important vectors of Rhodesian human African trypanosomiasis and animal African trypanosomiasis in East and southern Africa. We tested in Zimbabwe whether robust, synthetic fabrics, and innovative fly's-eye-view approaches to optimise fabric colour, can improve insecticide-treated targets employed for tsetse control.

Birth outcomes following antiretroviral exposure during pregnancy: Initial results from a pregnancy exposure registry in South Africa.

Background: In 2013, a pregnancy exposure registry and birth defects surveillance (PER/BDS) system was initiated in eThekwini District, KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), to assess the impact of antiretroviral treatment (ART) on birth outcomes.

Objectives: At the end of the first year, we assessed the risk of major congenital malformations (CM) and other adverse birth outcomes (ABOs) detected at birth, in children born to women exposed to ART during pregnancy.

Method: Data were collected from women who delivered at Prince Mshiyeni Memorial Hospital, Durban, from 07 October 2013 to 06 October 2014, using medicine exposure histories and birth outcomes from maternal interviews, clinical records and neonatal surface examination.

Treatment as prevention trials and ending AIDS: what do we know, when did we know it, and what do we do now?

Purpose Of Review: HIV remains a significant global public health problem. Treatment as prevention of HIV and TB illness, death and transmission was proposed in 2006 as a means to end the HIV epidemic. We review the results of the treatment as prevention trials.

HIV control strategies for sex worker-client contact networks.

Controlling the spread of HIV among hidden, high-risk populations such as survival sex workers and their clients is becoming increasingly important in the ongoing fight against HIV/AIDS. Several sociological and structural factors render general control strategies ineffective in these settings; instead, focused prevention, testing and treatment strategies which take into account the nature of survival sex work are required. Using a dynamic bipartite network model of sexual contacts, we investigate the optimal distribution of treatment and preventative resources among sex workers and their clients; specifically, we consider control strategies that randomly allocate antiretroviral therapy and pre-exposure prophylaxis within each subpopulation separately.

Serostatus testing and dengue vaccine cost-benefit thresholds.

The World Health Organization (WHO) currently recommends pre-screening for past infection prior to administration of the only licensed dengue vaccine, CYD-TDV. Using a threshold modelling analysis, we identify settings where this guidance prohibits positive net-benefits, and are thus unfavourable. Generally, however, our model shows test-then-vaccinate strategies can improve CYD-TDV economic viability: effective testing reduces unnecessary vaccination costs while increasing health benefits.

Tuberculosis decline in populations affected by HIV: a retrospective study of 12 countries in the WHO African Region.

Objective: To investigate which of the World Health Organization recommended methods for tuberculosis control have had the greatest effect on case incidence in 12 countries in the World Health Organization (WHO) African Region that carry high burdens of tuberculosis linked to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection.

Methods: We obtained epidemiological surveillance, survey and treatment data on HIV and tuberculosis for the years 2003 to 2016. We used statistical models to examine the effects of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and isoniazid preventive therapy in reducing the incidence of tuberculosis among people living with HIV.

HIV-attributable causes of death in the medical ward at the Chris Hani Baragwanath Hospital, South Africa.

Introduction: Data on the association between HIV infection and deaths from underlying medical conditions are needed to understand and assess the impact of HIV on mortality. We present data on mortality in the Chris Hani Baragwanath Hospital (CHBH) South Africa and analyse the relationship between each cause of death and HIV.

Methods: From 2006 to 2009 data were collected on 15,725 deaths including age, sex, day of admittance and of death, HIV status, ART initiation and CD4+ cell counts.

It's the network, stupid: a population's sexual network connectivity determines its STI prevalence.

There is little consensus as to why sexually transmitted infections (STIs), including HIV and bacterial vaginosis (BV) are more prevalent in some populations than others. Using a broad definition of sexual network connectivity that includes both and factors, we argue that the available evidence suggests that high prevalence of traditional STIs, HIV and BV can be parsimoniously explained by these populations having more connected sexual networks. Positive feedback, whereby BV and various STIs enhance the spread of other STIs, then further accentuates the spread of BV, HIV and other STIs.

Global and regional molecular epidemiology of HIV-1, 1990-2015: a systematic review, global survey, and trend analysis.

Background: Global genetic diversity of HIV-1 is a major challenge to the development of HIV vaccines. We aimed to estimate the regional and global distribution of HIV-1 subtypes and recombinants during 1990-2015.

Methods: We searched PubMed, EMBASE (Ovid), CINAHL (Ebscohost), and Global Health (Ovid) for HIV-1 subtyping studies published between Jan 1, 1990, and Dec 31, 2015.

What is the true tuberculosis mortality burden? Differences in estimates by the World Health Organization and the Global Burden of Disease study.

Background: The World Health Organization (WHO) and the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) periodically provide global estimates of tuberculosis (TB) mortality. We compared the 2015 WHO and GBD TB mortality estimates and explored which factors might drive the differences.

Methods: We extracted the number of estimated TB-attributable deaths, disaggregated by age, HIV status, sex and country from publicly available WHO and GBD datasets for the year 2015.

Evidence for Geographic Variation in Life-Cycle Processes Affecting Phenology of the Lyme Disease Vector Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) in the United States.

The seasonal activity pattern of immature Ixodes scapularis Say (Acari: Ixodidae) varies geographically in the United States, which may affect the efficiency of transmission cycles of pathogens transmitted by this species. To study the factors that determine seasonality, a multiyear study at seven sites across the geographic range of I. scapularis systematically collected questing ticks by flagging/dragging, and feeding ticks by capture of their hosts.