Evaluating Chemical Transport and Machine Learning Models for Wildfire Smoke PM: Implications for Assessment of Health Impacts.

Growing wildfire smoke represents a substantial threat to air quality and human health. However, the impact of wildfire smoke on human health remains imprecisely understood due to uncertainties in both the measurement of exposure of population to wildfire smoke and dose-response functions linking exposure to health. Here, we compare daily wildfire smoke-related surface fine particulate matter (PM) concentrations estimated using three approaches, including two chemical transport models (CTMs): GEOS-Chem and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) and one machine learning (ML) model over the contiguous US in 2020, a historically active fire year.

Immigrants and their children assimilate into US society and the US economy, both in the past and today.

We contribute to the public debate on immigration policy in the United States by providing a long-term, empirical perspective. We develop a novel method of linking individuals across historical Census waves to trace the lives of millions of immigrants in the past and compare their outcomes with immigrants today. We document that upward mobility is just as possible for immigrants today as it was in the early 20th century, and that children of immigrant parents catch up to and frequently exceed the economic outcomes of the children of US-born parents.

Mortality caused by tropical cyclones in the United States.

Natural disasters trigger complex chains of events within human societies. Immediate deaths and damage are directly observed after a disaster and are widely studied, but delayed downstream outcomes, indirectly caused by the disaster, are difficult to trace back to the initial event. Tropical cyclones (TCs)-that is, hurricanes and tropical storms-are widespread globally and have lasting economic impacts, but their full health impact remains unknown.

Perceptions of prior authorization burden and solutions.

The prior authorization (PA) process consumes time and money on the part of patients, providers, and payers. While some research shows substantial possible savings in the PA process, identifying what different groups can do is not as well known. Thus, organizations have struggled to capture this opportunity.

Are self-reported fertility preferences biased? Evidence from indirect elicitation methods.

Desired fertility measures are routinely collected and used by researchers and policy makers, but their self-reported nature raises the possibility of reporting bias. In this paper, we test for the presence of such bias by comparing responses to direct survey questions with indirect questions offering a varying, randomized, degree of confidentiality to respondents in a socioeconomically diverse sample of Nigerian women ([Formula: see text]). We find that women report higher fertility preferences when asked indirectly, but only when their responses afford them complete confidentiality, not when their responses are simply blind to the enumerator.

Mainstreaming nature in US federal policy.

Integrated policy changes must be cross-sectoral, appropriate, strategic, and evidence-based.

REPRESENTATION AND EXTRAPOLATION: EVIDENCE FROM CLINICAL TRIALS.

This article examines the consequences and causes of low enrollment of Black patients in clinical trials. We develop a simple model of similarity-based extrapolation that predicts that evidence is more relevant for decision-making by physicians and patients when it is more representative of the group being treated. This generates the key result that the perceived benefit of a medicine for a group depends not only on the average benefit from a trial but also on the share of patients from that group who were enrolled in the trial.

Managing government debt.

To construct a stochastic version of [R. J. Barro, , 940-971 (1979)] normative model of tax rates and debt/GDP dynamics, we add risks and markets for trading them along lines suggested by [K.

Trauma Center Hospitals Charged Higher Prices For Some Nontrauma Care Than Non-Trauma Center Hospitals, 2012-18.

Rising prices are a major cause of increased health care spending and health insurance premiums in the US. Hospital prices, specifically-for both inpatient and outpatient care-are the largest driver of rising health care spending in the commercial insurance market. As a result, policy makers and employers are increasingly interested in understanding the determinants of hospital prices.

Climate warming is expanding dengue burden in the Americas and Asia.

Climate change poses significant threats to public health, with dengue representing a growing concern due to its high existing burden and sensitivity to climatic conditions. Yet, the quantitative impacts of temperature warming on dengue, both in the past and in the future, remain poorly understood. In this study, we quantify how dengue responds to climatic fluctuations, and use this inferred temperature response to estimate the impacts of historical warming and forecast trends under future climate change scenarios.

Quantifying fire-specific smoke exposure and health impacts.

Rapidly changing wildfire regimes across the Western United States have driven more frequent and severe wildfires, resulting in wide-ranging societal threats from wildfires and wildfire-generated smoke. However, common measures of fire severity focus on what is burned, disregarding the societal impacts of smoke generated from each fire. We combine satellite-derived fire scars, air parcel trajectories from individual fires, and predicted smoke PM to link source fires to resulting smoke PM and health impacts experienced by populations in the contiguous United States from April 2006 to 2020.

U.S. global health aid policy and family planning in sub-Saharan Africa.

The Trump administration reinstated and expanded the Mexico City Policy (MCP) in 2017 as the Protecting Life in Global Health Assistance (PLGHA) policy, forbidding international organizations receiving all U.S. health assistance from promoting abortion.

In praise of fossil fuel subsidies (for cooking).

Households that burn biomass in inefficient open fires - a practice that results in $1.6 trillion in global damages from health impacts and climate-altering emissions yearly - are often unable to access cleaner alternatives, like gas, which is widely available but unaffordable, or electricity, which is unattainable for many due to insufficient supply and reliability of electricity services. Governments are often reluctant to make gas affordable.

Health Effects of Wildfire Smoke Exposure.

We review current knowledge on the trends and drivers of global wildfire activity, advances in the measurement of wildfire smoke exposure, and evidence on the health effects of this exposure. We describe methodological issues in estimating the causal effects of wildfire smoke exposures on health and quantify their importance, emphasizing the role of nonlinear and lagged effects. We conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of the health effects of wildfire smoke exposure, finding positive impacts on all-cause mortality and respiratory hospitalizations but less consistent evidence on cardiovascular morbidity.

The contribution of wildfire to PM trends in the USA.

Steady improvements in ambient air quality in the USA over the past several decades, in part a result of public policy, have led to public health benefits. However, recent trends in ambient concentrations of particulate matter with diameters less than 2.5 μm (PM), a pollutant regulated under the Clean Air Act, have stagnated or begun to reverse throughout much of the USA.

Emergency department visits respond nonlinearly to wildfire smoke.

Air pollution negatively affects a range of health outcomes. Wildfire smoke is an increasingly important contributor to air pollution, yet wildfire smoke events are highly salient and could induce behavioral responses that alter health impacts. We combine geolocated data covering all emergency department (ED) visits to nonfederal hospitals in California from 2006 to 2017 with spatially resolved estimates of daily wildfire smoke PM[Formula: see text] concentrations and quantify how smoke events affect ED visits.

Deaths Due to COVID-19 in Patients With Cancer During Different Waves of the Pandemic in the US.

Importance: With the ongoing relaxation of guidelines to prevent COVID-19 transmission, particularly in hospital settings, medically vulnerable groups, such as patients with cancer, may experience a disparate burden of COVID-19 mortality compared with the general population.

Objective: To evaluate COVID-19 mortality among US patients with cancer compared with the general US population during different waves of the pandemic.

Design, Setting, And Participants: This cross-sectional study used data from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention's Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research database to examine COVID-19 mortality among US patients with cancer and the general population from March 1, 2020, to May 31, 2022.

Climate and health benefits of a transition from gas to electric cooking.

Household electrification is thought to be an important part of a carbon-neutral future and could also have additional benefits to adopting households such as improved air quality. However, the effectiveness of specific electrification policies in reducing total emissions and boosting household livelihoods remains a crucial open question in both developed and developing countries. We investigated a transition of more than 750,000 households from gas to electric cookstoves-one of the most popular residential electrification strategies-in Ecuador following a program that promoted induction stoves and assessed its impacts on electricity consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, and health.

Drought impacts on the electricity system, emissions, and air quality in the western United States.

The western United States has experienced severe drought in recent decades, and climate models project increased drought risk in the future. This increased drying could have important implications for the region's interconnected, hydropower-dependent electricity systems. Using power-plant level generation and emissions data from 2001 to 2021, we quantify the impacts of drought on the operation of fossil fuel plants and the associated impacts on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, air quality, and human health.

Global biomass fires and infant mortality.

Global outdoor biomass burning is a major contributor to air pollution, especially in low- and middle-income countries. Recent years have witnessed substantial changes in the extent of biomass burning, including large declines in Africa. However, direct evidence of the contribution of biomass burning to global health outcomes remains limited.

Potential health and economic impact associated with achieving risk factor control in Chinese adults with diabetes: a microsimulation modelling study.

Background: The prevalence of diabetes has risen sharply in China. Improving modifiable risk factors such as glycaemia and blood pressure could substantially reduce disease burden and treatment costs to achieve a healthier China by 2030.

Methods: We used a nationally representative population-based survey of adults with diabetes in 31 provinces in mainland China to assess the prevalence of risk factor control.