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Estimating scenarios for survival time in men starting systemic therapies for castration-resistant prostate cancer: a systematic review of randomised trials.

Eur J Cancer

July 2014

Sydney Medical School, University of Sydney, Edward Ford Building A27, NSW 2006, Australia; National Health and Medical Research Council Clinical Trials Centre, University of Sydney, Locked Bag 77, Camperdown, NSW 1450, Australia; Department of Medical Oncology, Sydney Cancer Centre, RPA and Concord Hospitals, Missenden Road, Camperdown, NSW 2050, Australia. Electronic address:

Background: We sought to estimate worst-case, typical and best-case scenarios for survival in men starting systemic therapies for castration resistant prostate cancer (CRPC).

Methods: We sought randomised phase 3 trials of systemic therapies for CRPC and recorded the following percentiles (represented scenario) from Kaplan-Meier overall survival (OS) curves: 90th (worst-case), 75th (lower-typical), 50th (median), 25th (upper-typical) and 10th (best-case). We determined the accuracy of using simple multiples of the median OS to estimate the other selected percentiles from each curve: 0.

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