1,086 results match your criteria: "Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research[Affiliation]"

Article Synopsis
  • Statistical physics and dynamical systems theory are essential for understanding high-impact geophysical events, like temperature extremes and cyclones, which arise from deviations in typical geophysical system behaviors.
  • Traditional statistical techniques can predict the likelihood of these events but struggle to connect them to the underlying physics of anomalous geophysical regimes.
  • The paper discusses this gap in knowledge, highlighting challenges and proposing new approaches, particularly stochastic methods, to improve our understanding of extreme geophysical phenomena.
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Bridging the gender, climate, and health gap: the road to COP29.

Lancet Planet Health

December 2024

Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health and Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies, Barcelona, Spain.

Article Synopsis
  • This text discusses the importance of intersectional approaches in climate policy to address the unique health impacts of climate change on women, girls, and gender-diverse individuals, who often face compounded vulnerabilities due to systemic oppression.
  • It highlights the lack of meaningful gender and health representation in international climate governance, emphasizing that despite some progress, men still dominate decision-making roles in climate policy.
  • The text advocates for promoting gender-responsiveness in climate strategies to enhance inclusivity and effectiveness, leading to more resilient and equitable societies.
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The ecological importance of great apes is widely recognised, yet few studies have highlighted the role of protecting great apes' habitats in mitigating climate change, particularly through carbon sequestration. This study used GIS tools to extract data from various sources, including the International Union for Conservation of Nature database, to examine carbon quantity and great ape abundance in African great ape habitats. Subsequently, we employed a generalised linear model to assess the relationship between locally measured great ape populations abundance and carbon storage across areas with different levels of protection.

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Data-sampled time-varying formation for singular multi-agent systems with multiple leaders.

Neural Netw

January 2025

Department of Complexity Science, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, 14473, Germany; Institute of Physics, Humboldt University of Berlin, Berlin, 12489, Germany.

The time-varying formation problem of singular multi-agent systems under sampled data with multiple leaders is investigated in this paper. Firstly, a data-sampled time-varying formation control protocol is proposed in the current study where the communication among followers merely occurred at sampling instants, which can save the controller communication energy significantly. Secondly, necessary and sufficient conditions for the feasibility of the formation function are provided.

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Historically, economic growth has been closely coupled to carbon emissions responsible for climate change, but to stabilize global mean temperature, net-zero carbon emissions are necessary. Some economies have begun to reduce emissions while continuing to grow, but this decoupling is not fast enough to achieve global climate targets. Subnational climate actions seem to be crucial for the achievement of these targets.

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This Focus Issue covers recent developments in the broad areas of nonlinear dynamics, synchronization, and emergent behavior in dynamical networks. It targets current progress on issues such as time series analysis and data-driven modeling from real data such as climate, brain, and social dynamics. Predicting and detecting early warning signals of extreme climate conditions, epileptic seizures, or other catastrophic conditions are the primary tasks from real or experimental data.

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Impacts of land-use and land-cover changes on temperature-related mortality.

Environ Epidemiol

December 2024

Environment & Health Modelling (EHM) Lab, Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.

Background: Land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) can substantially affect climate through biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects. Here, we examine the future temperature-mortality impact for two contrasting LULCC scenarios in a background climate of low greenhouse gas concentrations. The first LULCC scenario implies a globally sustainable land use and socioeconomic development (sustainability).

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Oxygen isotopes (δO) are the most commonly utilized speleothem proxy and have provided many foundational records of paleoclimate. Thus, understanding processes affecting speleothem δO is crucial. Yet, prior calcite precipitation (PCP), a process driven by local hydrology, is a widely ignored control of speleothem δO.

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The concept of multifunctionality has enabled reservoir computers (RCs), a type of dynamical system that is typically realized as an artificial neural network, to reconstruct multiple attractors simultaneously using the same set of trained weights. However, there are many additional phenomena that arise when training a RC to reconstruct more than one attractor. Previous studies have found that in certain cases, if the RC fails to reconstruct a coexistence of attractors, then it exhibits a form of metastability, whereby, without any external input, the state of the RC switches between different modes of behavior that resemble the properties of the attractors it failed to reconstruct.

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A detailed assessment of a low energy demand, 1.5 C compatible pathway is provided for Europe from a bottom-up, country scale modelling perspective. The level of detail enables a clear representation of the potential of sufficiency measures.

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The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is a narrow tropical belt of deep convective clouds, intense precipitation, and monsoon circulations encircling the Earth. Complex interactions between the ITCZ and local geophysical dynamics result in high climate variability, making weather forecasting and prediction of extreme rainfall or drought events challenging. We unravel the complex spatio-temporal dynamics of the ITCZ and the resulting teleconnection patterns via a novel tropical climate classification achieved using complex network analysis and community detection.

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Article Synopsis
  • - The implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is struggling because of siloed strategies that prevent a unified approach.
  • - To tackle these issues, the text highlights three key areas: how SDGs interact with each other, modeling these interactions, and using appropriate tools.
  • - By focusing on these interconnected aspects, the aim is to enhance progress on the SDGs and effectively apply the principles of integration and indivisibility.
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Article Synopsis
  • * There are big differences in climate risks if we exceed temperature limits versus if we stay within them, including effects on sea levels and ice.
  • * To prevent dangerous climate changes, we need to find ways to remove a lot of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, but this could be hard and expensive to do, meaning we need to act quickly to cut emissions instead.
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A beautiful feature of nature is its complexity. The chaos theory has proved useful in a variety of fields, including physics, chemistry, biology, and economics. In the present article, we explore the complex dynamics of a rather simple one-dimensional economic model in a parameter plane.

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In this study, we analyze the effects of technology availability, political coordination, and behavioral change on transformation pathways toward net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union by 2050. We implemented an iterative stakeholder dialogue to co-design the scenarios that were calculated using a global multi-regional energy-economy-land-climate model. We find that in scenarios without behavioral change and with restriction of technologies, the target of greenhouse gas neutrality in the European Union cannot be reached.

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Recent advances in data science and urban environmental health research utilise large-scale databases (100s-1000s of cities) to explore the complex interplay of urban characteristics such as city form and size, climate, mobility, exposure, and environmental health impacts. Cities are still hotspots of air pollution and noise, suffer urban heat island effects and lack of green space, which leads to disease and mortality burdens preventable with better knowledge. Better understanding through harmonising and analysing data in large numbers of cities is essential to identifying the most effective means of disease prevention and understanding context dependencies important for policy.

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Urban agriculture can contribute to sustainable development. However, a holistic investigation is lacking to comprehend its positive and negative impacts on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Our systematic analysis of around 1,450 relevant publications on urban agriculture, screened from 76,000 records, fills this gap.

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Article Synopsis
  • The study examines the link between high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves and extreme summer weather in the Northern Hemisphere, focusing on the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA).
  • Using a semi-empirical approach and data from climate models (CMIP5 and CMIP6), the authors project a significant increase in QRA events, with 85% of CMIP6 models showing a positive trend compared to 60% in CMIP5.
  • The findings indicate that with continued anthropogenic warming and under various emission scenarios, QRA events—and related summer extremes—are likely to increase more than previously estimated, suggesting a concerning future for weather patterns.
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Involution symmetry quantification using recurrences.

Phys Rev E

August 2024

Institute of Systems and Information Engineering, University of Tsukuba, 1-1-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8573, Japan.

Symmetries are ubiquitous in science, aiding theoretical comprehension by discerning patterns in mathematical models and natural phenomena. This work introduces a method for assessing the extent of symmetry within a time series. We explore both microscopic and macroscopic features extracted from a recurrence plot.

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Article Synopsis
  • The study examines how constant and time-varying vaccination rates influence the SEIRS model of disease spread, revealing that certain combinations can lead to complex behaviors like chaos.
  • The research finds that even with high constant vaccination rates, chaotic dynamics can still occur, and that the overall number of infections remains unchanged regardless of whether the system behaves chaotically or periodically.
  • Introducing a time-dependent vaccine alters the system's dynamics further, allowing for control over chaos and transitions to periodic behavior based on specific parameters, effectively reducing the prevalence of periodic patterns in bi-stable systems.
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Livestock sector can threaten planetary boundaries without regionally differentiated strategies.

J Environ Manage

November 2024

Laboratory of Systems Ecology and Sustainability Science, College of Engineering, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China; Macao Environmental Research Institute, Macau University of Science and Technology, Macao, 999078, China. Electronic address:

The livestock sector represents major challenges to safeguarding environmental integrity. This study comprehensively analyzes ten environmental footprints of the livestock sector from 1995 to 2022, with projections until 2030, and juxtaposes them with the planetary boundaries. We quantify greenhouse gas emissions, land use, water use, particulate matter formation, and biochemical flows associated with the livestock sector.

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Pronounced spatial disparities in heatwave trends are bound up with a diversity of atmospheric signals with complex variations, including different phases and wavenumbers. However, assessing their relationships quantitatively remains a challenging problem. Here, we use a network-searching approach to identify the strengths of heatwave-related atmospheric teleconnections (AT) with ERA5 reanalysis data.

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Risks of infectious disease hospitalisations in the aftermath of tropical cyclones: a multi-country time-series study.

Lancet Planet Health

September 2024

Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia. Electronic address:

Article Synopsis
  • The study investigates how tropical cyclones impact hospitalisations due to infectious diseases across six countries from 2000 to 2019.
  • Researchers used hospitalisation records and a specific model to assess the link between days with significant tropical cyclone winds and rates of infectious disease hospitalisation.
  • Findings indicate that there is a notable increase in hospitalisations for various infectious diseases following tropical cyclones, with risks peaking around two months post-exposure.
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