Constraining safe and unsafe overshoots in saddle-node bifurcations.

We consider a dynamical system undergoing a saddle-node bifurcation with an explicitly time-dependent parameter p(t). The combined dynamics can be considered a dynamical system where p is a slowly evolving parameter. Here, we investigate settings where the parameter features an overshoot.

Impacts of irrigation expansion on moist-heat stress based on IRRMIP results.

Irrigation rapidly expanded during the 20 century, affecting climate via water, energy, and biogeochemical changes. Previous assessments of these effects predominantly relied on a single Earth System Model, and therefore suffered from structural model uncertainties. Here we quantify the impacts of historical irrigation expansion on climate by analysing simulation results from six Earth system models participating in the Irrigation Model Intercomparison Project (IRRMIP).

An interactive course program on nutrition for medical students: interdisciplinary development and mixed-methods evaluation.

Nutrition plays a crucial role in human and planetary health, as prevailing nutritional patterns significantly contribute to the global non-communicable disease pandemic. Moreover, the global food system is inextricably linked to planetary health deterioration. The relevance of nutrition for individual and planetary health is insufficiently addressed in German medical schools.

Bundled measures for China's food system transformation reveal social and environmental co-benefits.

Food systems are essential for the achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals in China. Here, using an integrated assessment modelling framework that considers country-specific pathways and covers 18 indicators, we find that most social and environmental targets for the Chinese food system under current trends are not aligned with the United Nations Agenda 2030. We further quantify the impacts of multiple measures, revealing potential trade-offs in pursuing strategies aimed at public health, environmental sustainability and livelihood improvement in isolation.

Declining precipitation frequency may drive earlier leaf senescence by intensifying drought stress and enhancing drought acclimation.

Precipitation is an important factor influencing the date of foliar senescence, which in turn affects carbon uptake of terrestrial ecosystems. However, the temporal patterns of precipitation frequency and its impact on foliar senescence date remain largely unknown. Using both long-term carbon flux data and satellite observations across the Northern Hemisphere, we show that, after excluding impacts from of temperature, radiation and total precipitation by partial correlation analysis, declining precipitation frequency may drive earlier foliar senescence date from 1982 to 2022.

A hybrid dual-branch model with recurrence plots and transposed transformer for stock trend prediction.

Stock trend prediction is a significant challenge due to the inherent uncertainty and complexity of stock market time series. In this study, we introduce an innovative dual-branch network model designed to effectively address this challenge. The first branch constructs recurrence plots (RPs) to capture the nonlinear relationships between time points from historical closing price sequences and computes the corresponding recurrence quantifification analysis measures.

Tipping point-induced abrupt shifts in East Asian hydroclimate since the Last Glacial Maximum.

Multiple tipping points in the Earth system could be triggered when global warming exceeds specific thresholds. However, the degree of their impact on the East Asian hydroclimate remains uncertain due to the lack of quantitative rainfall records. Here we present an ensemble reconstruction of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) using nine statistical and machine learning methods based on multi-proxy records from a maar lake in southern China.

Degrowth as a plausible pathway for food systems transformation.

Food systems require urgent transformation towards social and ecological sustainability. Degrowth posits a radical pathway of transformation to reduce ecological impacts while increasing well-being and reducing inequality. Here we highlight that degrowth and food systems-albeit both linked to transformation-are not well integrated.

Future food prices will become less sensitive to agricultural market prices and mitigation costs.

Agricultural production costs represent less than half of total food prices for higher-income countries and will likely further decrease globally. Added-value components such as transport, processing, marketing and catering show increasing importance in food value chains, especially as countries undergo a nutrition transition towards more complex and industrial food systems. Here, using a combined statistical and process-based modelling framework, we derive and project the value-added component of food prices for 136 countries and 11 different food groups, for food-at-home and food-away-from-home.

Global mean sea level likely higher than present during the holocene.

Global mean sea-level (GMSL) change can shed light on how the Earth system responds to warming. Glaciological evidence indicates that Earth's ice sheets retreated inland of early industrial (1850 CE) extents during the Holocene (11.7-0 ka), yet previous work suggests that Holocene GMSL never surpassed early industrial levels.

Synchronization cluster bursting in adaptive oscillator networks.

Adaptive dynamical networks are ubiquitous in real-world systems. This paper aims to explore the synchronization dynamics in networks of adaptive oscillators based on a paradigmatic system of adaptively coupled phase oscillators. Our numerical observations reveal the emergence of synchronization cluster bursting, characterized by periodic transitions between cluster synchronization and global synchronization.

Canard Cascading in Networks with Adaptive Mean-Field Coupling.

Canard cascading (CC) is observed in dynamical networks with global adaptive coupling. It is a slow-fast phenomenon characterized by a recurrent sequence of fast transitions between distinct and slowly evolving quasistationary states. In this Letter, we uncover the dynamical mechanisms behind CC, using an illustrative example of globally and adaptively coupled semiconductor lasers, where CC represents sequential switching on and off the lasers.

Shrimp structure as a test bed for ordinal pattern measures.

Identifying complex periodic windows surrounded by chaos in the two or higher dimensional parameter space of certain dynamical systems is a challenging task for time series analysis based on complex network approaches. This holds particularly true for the case of shrimp structures, where different bifurcations occur when crossing different domain boundaries. The corresponding dynamics often exhibit either period-doubling when crossing the inner boundaries or, respectively, intermittency for outer boundaries.

High-Mode Coupling Yields Multicoherent-Phase Phenomena in Nonlocally Coupled Oscillators.

Capturing the intricate dynamics of partially coherent patterns in coupled oscillator systems is vibrant and one of the crucial areas of nonlinear sciences. Considering higher-order Fourier modes in the coupling, we discover a novel type of clustered coherent state in phase models, where inside the coherent region oscillators are further split into q dynamically equivalent subgroups with a 2π/q phase difference between two neighboring subgroups, forming a multicoherent-phase (MUP) chimera state. Both a self-consistency analysis and the Ott-Antonsen dimension reduction techniques are used to theoretically derive these solutions, whose stability are further demonstrated by spectral analysis.

Thermodynamically inconsistent extreme precipitation sensitivities across continents driven by cloud-radiative effects.

Extreme precipitation events are projected to intensify with global warming, threatening ecosystems and amplifying flood risks. However, observation-based estimates of extreme precipitation-temperature (EP-T) sensitivities show systematic spatio-temporal variability, with predominantly negative sensitivities across warmer regions. Here, we attribute this variability to confounding cloud radiative effects, which cool surfaces during rainfall, introducing covariation between rainfall and temperature beyond temperature's effect on atmospheric moisture-holding capacity.

Crop-Specific Emission Projection Suggests Peaking of Agricultural NO by the Middle Century.

Agriculture is the largest anthropogenic source of NO emissions and plays a crucial role in global greenhouse gas mitigation. In an increasingly populated world with growing food demands, a precise and high-resolution spatial prediction of agricultural NO emissions becomes essential in reducing global emissions. In this study, an integrated assessment model coupled with the land cover downscaling module is employed to predict crop-specific NO emissions at a 0.

Trade-offs among human, animal, and environmental health hinder the uniform progress of global One Health.

The One Health (OH) approach, integrating aspects of human, animal, and environmental health, still lacks robustly quantified insights into its complex relationships. To fill this knowledge gap, we devised a comprehensive assessment scheme for OH to assess its progress, synergies, trade-offs, and priority targets. From 2000 to 2020, we find evidence for global progress toward OH, albeit uneven, with its average score rising from 61.

Improved alternate wetting and drying irrigation increases global water productivity.

Rice is the staple food for half of the world's population but also has the largest water footprint among cereal crops. Alternate wetting and drying (AWD) is a promising irrigation strategy to improve paddy rice's water productivity-defined as the ratio of rice yield to irrigation water use. However, its global adoption has been limited due to concerns about potential yield losses and uncertainties regarding water productivity improvements.

Stochastic response analysis of a birhythmic oscillator under Poisson white noise excitation via path integration method.

This paper investigates the stochastic response of a classical model of the birhythmic Van der Pol oscillator under Poisson white noise excitation. The improved path integration (PI) method is comprehensively derived in this paper and the probability density of the system is calculated using this method. Monte Carlo simulations are employed to validate the accuracy of the improved PI method.