Impacts of irrigation expansion on moist-heat stress based on IRRMIP results.

Irrigation rapidly expanded during the 20 century, affecting climate via water, energy, and biogeochemical changes. Previous assessments of these effects predominantly relied on a single Earth System Model, and therefore suffered from structural model uncertainties. Here we quantify the impacts of historical irrigation expansion on climate by analysing simulation results from six Earth system models participating in the Irrigation Model Intercomparison Project (IRRMIP).

An interactive course program on nutrition for medical students: interdisciplinary development and mixed-methods evaluation.

Nutrition plays a crucial role in human and planetary health, as prevailing nutritional patterns significantly contribute to the global non-communicable disease pandemic. Moreover, the global food system is inextricably linked to planetary health deterioration. The relevance of nutrition for individual and planetary health is insufficiently addressed in German medical schools.

Declining precipitation frequency may drive earlier leaf senescence by intensifying drought stress and enhancing drought acclimation.

Precipitation is an important factor influencing the date of foliar senescence, which in turn affects carbon uptake of terrestrial ecosystems. However, the temporal patterns of precipitation frequency and its impact on foliar senescence date remain largely unknown. Using both long-term carbon flux data and satellite observations across the Northern Hemisphere, we show that, after excluding impacts from of temperature, radiation and total precipitation by partial correlation analysis, declining precipitation frequency may drive earlier foliar senescence date from 1982 to 2022.

Future food prices will become less sensitive to agricultural market prices and mitigation costs.

Agricultural production costs represent less than half of total food prices for higher-income countries and will likely further decrease globally. Added-value components such as transport, processing, marketing and catering show increasing importance in food value chains, especially as countries undergo a nutrition transition towards more complex and industrial food systems. Here, using a combined statistical and process-based modelling framework, we derive and project the value-added component of food prices for 136 countries and 11 different food groups, for food-at-home and food-away-from-home.

Global mean sea level likely higher than present during the holocene.

Global mean sea-level (GMSL) change can shed light on how the Earth system responds to warming. Glaciological evidence indicates that Earth's ice sheets retreated inland of early industrial (1850 CE) extents during the Holocene (11.7-0 ka), yet previous work suggests that Holocene GMSL never surpassed early industrial levels.

Canard Cascading in Networks with Adaptive Mean-Field Coupling.

Canard cascading (CC) is observed in dynamical networks with global adaptive coupling. It is a slow-fast phenomenon characterized by a recurrent sequence of fast transitions between distinct and slowly evolving quasistationary states. In this Letter, we uncover the dynamical mechanisms behind CC, using an illustrative example of globally and adaptively coupled semiconductor lasers, where CC represents sequential switching on and off the lasers.

Shrimp structure as a test bed for ordinal pattern measures.

Identifying complex periodic windows surrounded by chaos in the two or higher dimensional parameter space of certain dynamical systems is a challenging task for time series analysis based on complex network approaches. This holds particularly true for the case of shrimp structures, where different bifurcations occur when crossing different domain boundaries. The corresponding dynamics often exhibit either period-doubling when crossing the inner boundaries or, respectively, intermittency for outer boundaries.

Thermodynamically inconsistent extreme precipitation sensitivities across continents driven by cloud-radiative effects.

Extreme precipitation events are projected to intensify with global warming, threatening ecosystems and amplifying flood risks. However, observation-based estimates of extreme precipitation-temperature (EP-T) sensitivities show systematic spatio-temporal variability, with predominantly negative sensitivities across warmer regions. Here, we attribute this variability to confounding cloud radiative effects, which cool surfaces during rainfall, introducing covariation between rainfall and temperature beyond temperature's effect on atmospheric moisture-holding capacity.

Trade-offs among human, animal, and environmental health hinder the uniform progress of global One Health.

The One Health (OH) approach, integrating aspects of human, animal, and environmental health, still lacks robustly quantified insights into its complex relationships. To fill this knowledge gap, we devised a comprehensive assessment scheme for OH to assess its progress, synergies, trade-offs, and priority targets. From 2000 to 2020, we find evidence for global progress toward OH, albeit uneven, with its average score rising from 61.

Improved alternate wetting and drying irrigation increases global water productivity.

Rice is the staple food for half of the world's population but also has the largest water footprint among cereal crops. Alternate wetting and drying (AWD) is a promising irrigation strategy to improve paddy rice's water productivity-defined as the ratio of rice yield to irrigation water use. However, its global adoption has been limited due to concerns about potential yield losses and uncertainties regarding water productivity improvements.

Recent achievements in nonlinear dynamics, synchronization, and networks.

This Focus Issue covers recent developments in the broad areas of nonlinear dynamics, synchronization, and emergent behavior in dynamical networks. It targets current progress on issues such as time series analysis and data-driven modeling from real data such as climate, brain, and social dynamics. Predicting and detecting early warning signals of extreme climate conditions, epileptic seizures, or other catastrophic conditions are the primary tasks from real or experimental data.

Impacts of land-use and land-cover changes on temperature-related mortality.

Background: Land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) can substantially affect climate through biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects. Here, we examine the future temperature-mortality impact for two contrasting LULCC scenarios in a background climate of low greenhouse gas concentrations. The first LULCC scenario implies a globally sustainable land use and socioeconomic development (sustainability).

The key role of sufficiency for low demand-based carbon neutrality and energy security across Europe.

A detailed assessment of a low energy demand, 1.5 C compatible pathway is provided for Europe from a bottom-up, country scale modelling perspective. The level of detail enables a clear representation of the potential of sufficiency measures.

Community structure of tropics emerging from spatio-temporal variations in the Intertropical Convergence Zone dynamics.

The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is a narrow tropical belt of deep convective clouds, intense precipitation, and monsoon circulations encircling the Earth. Complex interactions between the ITCZ and local geophysical dynamics result in high climate variability, making weather forecasting and prediction of extreme rainfall or drought events challenging. We unravel the complex spatio-temporal dynamics of the ITCZ and the resulting teleconnection patterns via a novel tropical climate classification achieved using complex network analysis and community detection.

Shrimp-shaped structure and period-bubbling route to chaos in a one-dimensional economic model.

A beautiful feature of nature is its complexity. The chaos theory has proved useful in a variety of fields, including physics, chemistry, biology, and economics. In the present article, we explore the complex dynamics of a rather simple one-dimensional economic model in a parameter plane.

Technology availability, sector policies and behavioral change are complementary strategies for achieving net-zero emissions.

In this study, we analyze the effects of technology availability, political coordination, and behavioral change on transformation pathways toward net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union by 2050. We implemented an iterative stakeholder dialogue to co-design the scenarios that were calculated using a global multi-regional energy-economy-land-climate model. We find that in scenarios without behavioral change and with restriction of technologies, the target of greenhouse gas neutrality in the European Union cannot be reached.

Urban agriculture matters for sustainable development.

Urban agriculture can contribute to sustainable development. However, a holistic investigation is lacking to comprehend its positive and negative impacts on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Our systematic analysis of around 1,450 relevant publications on urban agriculture, screened from 76,000 records, fills this gap.

Increased projected changes in quasi-resonant amplification and persistent summer weather extremes in the latest multimodel climate projections.

High-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves with zonal wave numbers 6-8 associated with the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) have been linked to persistent summer extreme weather events in the Northern Hemisphere. QRA is not well-resolved in current generation climate models, therefore, necessitating an alternative approach to assessing their behavior. Using a previously-developed fingerprint-based semi-empirical approach, we project future occurrence of QRA events based on a QRA index derived from the zonally averaged surface temperature field, comparing results from CMIP 5 and 6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project).

Livestock sector can threaten planetary boundaries without regionally differentiated strategies.

The livestock sector represents major challenges to safeguarding environmental integrity. This study comprehensively analyzes ten environmental footprints of the livestock sector from 1995 to 2022, with projections until 2030, and juxtaposes them with the planetary boundaries. We quantify greenhouse gas emissions, land use, water use, particulate matter formation, and biochemical flows associated with the livestock sector.

Sketching the spatial disparities in heatwave trends by changing atmospheric teleconnections in the Northern Hemisphere.

Pronounced spatial disparities in heatwave trends are bound up with a diversity of atmospheric signals with complex variations, including different phases and wavenumbers. However, assessing their relationships quantitatively remains a challenging problem. Here, we use a network-searching approach to identify the strengths of heatwave-related atmospheric teleconnections (AT) with ERA5 reanalysis data.

Indication of long-range correlations governing city size.

City systems are characterized by the functional organization of cities on a regional or country scale. While there is a relatively good empirical and theoretical understanding of city size distributions, insights about their spatial organization remain on a conceptual level. Here, we analyze empirically the correlations between the sizes of cities (in terms of area) across long distances.

Climate policies that achieved major emission reductions: Global evidence from two decades.

Meeting the Paris Agreement's climate targets necessitates better knowledge about which climate policies work in reducing emissions at the necessary scale. We provide a global, systematic ex post evaluation to identify policy combinations that have led to large emission reductions out of 1500 climate policies implemented between 1998 and 2022 across 41 countries from six continents. Our approach integrates a comprehensive climate policy database with a machine learning-based extension of the common difference-in-differences approach.