Global multi-hazard risk assessment in a changing climate.

Natural hazards pose significant risks to people and assets in many regions of the world. Quantifying associated risks is crucial for many applications such as adaptation option appraisal and insurance pricing. However, traditional risk assessment approaches have focused on the impacts of single hazards, ignoring the effects of multi-hazard risks and potentially leading to underestimations or overestimations of risks.

Modeling brain network flexibility in networks of coupled oscillators: a feasibility study.

Modeling the functionality of the human brain is a major goal in neuroscience for which many powerful methodologies have been developed over the last decade. The impact of working memory and the associated brain regions on the brain dynamics is of particular interest due to their connection with many functions and malfunctions in the brain. In this context, the concept of brain flexibility has been developed for the characterization of brain functionality.

Accounting for the increasing benefits from scarce ecosystems.

As people get richer, and ecosystem services scarcer, policy-relevant estimates of ecosystem value must rise.

Deep learning-based state prediction of the Lorenz system with control parameters.

Nonlinear dynamical systems with control parameters may not be well modeled by shallow neural networks. In this paper, the stable fixed-point solutions, periodic and chaotic solutions of the parameter-dependent Lorenz system are learned simultaneously via a very deep neural network. The proposed deep learning model consists of a large number of identical linear layers, which provide excellent nonlinear mapping capability.

Quantifying the impact of key factors on the carbon mitigation potential of managed temperate forests.

Background: Forests mitigate climate change by reducing atmospheric -concentrations through the carbon sink in the forest and in wood products, and substitution effects when wood products replace carbon-intensive materials and fuels. Quantifying the carbon mitigation potential of forests is highly challenging due to the influence of multiple important factors such as forest age and type, climate change and associated natural disturbances, harvest intensities, wood usage patterns, salvage logging practices, and the carbon-intensity of substituted products. Here, we developed a framework to quantify the impact of these factors through factorial simulation experiments with an ecosystem model at the example of central European (Bavarian) forests.

Mitigating nitrogen losses with almost no crop yield penalty during extremely wet years.

Climate change-induced precipitation anomalies during extremely wet years (EWYs) result in substantial nitrogen losses to aquatic ecosystems (N). Still, the extent and drivers of these losses, and effective mitigation strategies have remained unclear. By integrating global datasets with well-established crop modeling and machine learning techniques, we reveal notable increases in N, ranging from 22 to 56%, during historical EWYs.

A Dynamic Network Model of Societal Complexity and Resilience Inspired by Tainter's Theory of Collapse.

In recent years, several global events have severely disrupted economies and social structures, undermining confidence in the resilience of modern societies. Examples include the COVID-19 pandemic, which brought unprecedented health challenges and economic disruptions, and the emergence of geopolitical tensions and conflicts that have further strained international relations and economic stability. While empirical evidence on the dynamics and drivers of past societal collapse is mounting, a process-based understanding of these dynamics is still in its infancy.

Overlooked uneven progress across sustainable development goals at the global scale: Challenges and opportunities.

Differences in progress across sustainable development goals (SDGs) are widespread globally; meanwhile, the rising call for prioritizing specific SDGs may exacerbate such gaps. Nevertheless, how these progress differences would influence global sustainable development has been long neglected. Here, we present the first quantitative assessment of SDGs' progress differences globally by adopting the SDGs progress evenness index.

Synchronization enhancement subjected to adaptive blinking coupling.

Synchronization holds a significant role, notably within chaotic systems, in various contexts where the coordinated behavior of systems plays a pivotal and indispensable role. Hence, many studies have been dedicated to investigating the underlying mechanism of synchronization of chaotic systems. Networks with time-varying coupling, particularly those with blinking coupling, have been proven essential.

Dynamics of a time-delayed relay system.

We study the dynamics of a piecewise-linear second-order delay differential equation that is representative of feedback systems with relays (switches) that actuate after a fixed delay. The system under study exhibits strong multirhythmicity, the coexistence of many stable periodic solutions for the same values of the parameters. We present a detailed study of these periodic solutions and their bifurcations.

Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system.

The possibility that the Amazon forest system could soon reach a tipping point, inducing large-scale collapse, has raised global concern. For 65 million years, Amazonian forests remained relatively resilient to climatic variability. Now, the region is increasingly exposed to unprecedented stress from warming temperatures, extreme droughts, deforestation and fires, even in central and remote parts of the system.

Co-evolution of heterogeneous cognition in spatial snowdrift game with asymmetric cost.

The emergence of the evolutionary game on complex networks provides a fresh framework for studying cooperation behavior between complex populations. Numerous recent progress has been achieved in studying asymmetric games. However, there is still a substantial need to address how to flexibly express the individual asymmetric nature.

Adaptive exponential integrate-and-fire model with fractal extension.

The description of neuronal activity has been of great importance in neuroscience. In this field, mathematical models are useful to describe the electrophysical behavior of neurons. One successful model used for this purpose is the Adaptive Exponential Integrate-and-Fire (Adex), which is composed of two ordinary differential equations.

Contribution of climate change to the spatial expansion of West Nile virus in Europe.

West Nile virus (WNV) is an emerging mosquito-borne pathogen in Europe where it represents a new public health threat. While climate change has been cited as a potential driver of its spatial expansion on the continent, a formal evaluation of this causal relationship is lacking. Here, we investigate the extent to which WNV spatial expansion in Europe can be attributed to climate change while accounting for other direct human influences such as land-use and human population changes.

A triple increase in global river basins with water scarcity due to future pollution.

Water security is at stake today. While climate changes influence water availability, urbanization and agricultural activities have led to increasing water demand as well as pollution, limiting safe water use. We conducted a global assessment of future clean-water scarcity for 2050s by adding the water pollution aspect to the classical water quantity-induced scarcity assessments.

Diameter, height and species of 42 million trees in three European landscapes generated from field data and airborne laser scanning data.

Ecology and forestry sciences are using an increasing amount of data to address a wide variety of technical and research questions at the local, continental and global scales. However, one type of data remains rare: fine-grain descriptions of large landscapes. Yet, this type of data could help address the scaling issues in ecology and could prove useful for testing forest management strategies and accurately predicting the dynamics of ecosystem services.

Targeted rainfall enhancement as an objective of forestation.

Forestation efforts are accelerating across the globe in the fight against global climate change, in order to restore biodiversity, and to improve local livelihoods. Yet, so far the non-local effects of forestation on rainfall have largely remained a blind spot. Here we build upon emerging work to propose that targeted rainfall enhancement may also be considered in the prioritization of forestation.

Impact of periodic vaccination in SEIRS seasonal model.

We study three different strategies of vaccination in an SEIRS (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible) seasonal forced model, which are (i) continuous vaccination; (ii) periodic short-time localized vaccination, and (iii) periodic pulsed width campaign. Considering the first strategy, we obtain an expression for the basic reproduction number and infer a minimum vaccination rate necessary to ensure the stability of the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) solution. In the second strategy, short duration pulses are added to a constant baseline vaccination rate.

The planetary commons: A new paradigm for safeguarding Earth-regulating systems in the Anthropocene.

The Anthropocene signifies the start of a no-analogue trajectory of the Earth system that is fundamentally different from the Holocene. This new trajectory is characterized by rising risks of triggering irreversible and unmanageable shifts in Earth system functioning. We urgently need a new global approach to safeguard critical Earth system regulating functions more effectively and comprehensively.

Tropical cyclone-specific mortality risks and the periods of concern: A multicountry time-series study.

Background: More intense tropical cyclones (TCs) are expected in the future under a warming climate scenario, but little is known about their mortality effect pattern across countries and over decades. We aim to evaluate the TC-specific mortality risks, periods of concern (POC) and characterize the spatiotemporal pattern and exposure-response (ER) relationships on a multicountry scale.

Methods And Findings: Daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality among the general population were collected from 494 locations in 18 countries or territories during 1980 to 2019.

Resilience of transportation infrastructure networks to road failures.

Anthropogenic climate change drives extreme weather events, leading to significant consequences for both society and the environment. This includes damage to road infrastructure, causing disruptions in transportation, obstructing access to emergency services, and hindering humanitarian organizations after natural disasters. In this study, we develop a novel method for analyzing the impacts of natural hazards on transportation networks rooted in the gravity model of travel, offering a fresh perspective to assess the repercussions of natural hazards on transportation network stability.

Role of atmospheric resonance and land-atmosphere feedbacks as a precursor to the June 2021 Pacific Northwest Heat Dome event.

We demonstrate an indirect, rather than direct, role of quasi-resonant amplification of planetary waves in a summer weather extreme. We find that there was an interplay between a persistent, amplified large-scale atmospheric circulation state and soil moisture feedbacks as a precursor for the June 2021 Pacific Northwest "Heat Dome" event. An extended resonant planetary wave configuration prior to the event created an antecedent soil moisture deficit that amplified lower atmospheric warming through strong nonlinear soil moisture feedbacks, favoring this unprecedented heat event.

Technology of the photobiostimulation of the brain's drainage system during sleep for improvement of learning and memory in male mice.

In this study on healthy male mice using confocal imaging of dye spreading in the brain and its further accumulation in the peripheral lymphatics, we demonstrate stronger effects of photobiomodulation (PBM) on the brain's drainage system in sleeping vs. awake animals. Using the Pavlovian instrumental transfer probe and the 2-objects-location test, we found that the 10-day course of PBM during sleep vs.