Monte Carlo integration over stepping stone models for spatial genetic inference using approximate Bayesian computation.

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) substitutes simulation for analytic models in Bayesian inference. Simulating evolutionary scenarios under Kimura's stepping stone model (KSS) might therefore allow inference over spatial genetic process where analytical results are difficult to obtain. ABC first creates a reference set of simulations and would proceed by comparing summary statistics over KSS simulations to summary statistics from localities sampled in the field, but: comparison of which localities and stepping stones? Identical stepping stones can be arranged so two localities fall in the same stepping stone, nearest or diagonal neighbours, or without contact.