Prediction that conflicts with judgment: The low absolute likelihood effect.

How do people predict the outcome of an event from a set of possible outcomes? One might expect people to predict whichever outcome they believe to be most likely to arise. However, we document a robust disconnect between what people predict and what they believe to be most likely. This disconnect arises because people consider not only relative likelihood but also absolute likelihood when predicting.

Fighting fiscal awkwardness: How relationship strength changes individuals' communication approach when resolving interpersonal debt.

Social interactions can be uncomfortable. The current research focuses on a particularly uneasy interaction that individuals face with their friends and acquaintances: the need to request owed money back. Nine preregistered studies ( = 6,953) show that individuals' approach to resolving interpersonal debt varies based on their closeness with the requestee.

Estrogen predicts multimodal emotion recognition accuracy across the menstrual cycle.

Researchers have proposed that variation in sex hormones across the menstrual cycle modulate the ability to recognize emotions in others. Existing research suggests that accuracy is higher during the follicular phase and ovulation compared to the luteal phase, but findings are inconsistent. Using a repeated measures design with a sample of healthy naturally cycling women (N = 63), we investigated whether emotion recognition accuracy varied between the follicular and luteal phases, and whether accuracy related to levels of estrogen (estradiol) and progesterone.

Silence on injustices speaks volumes: When and how silence impacts perceptions of managers.

Speaking up on social injustices may help create more just and inclusive organizations. Yet, many people choose to remain silent. In this article, we test how managerial silence on injustices can shape impressions of a manager's lack of support for an outgroup.

A study of "left against medical advice" emergency department patients: an optimized explainable artificial intelligence framework.

The issue of left against medical advice (LAMA) patients is common in today's emergency departments (EDs). This issue represents a medico-legal risk and may result in potential readmission, mortality, or revenue loss. Thus, understanding the factors that cause patients to "leave against medical advice" is vital to mitigate and potentially eliminate these adverse outcomes.

The gendered effect of status-striving in sleep deprivation disclosure.

Objectives: In this research, we conceptualize status-striving sleep deprivation disclosure as talking about one's lack of sleep with the intention of enhancing one's image. We propose that workers may disclose discretionary information about their sleep deprivation to highlight their potential contributions to the group because of the personal costs of sleep deprivation (e.g.

Correction to "The interpersonal costs of dishonesty: How dishonest behavior reduces individuals' ability to read others' emotions" by Lee et al. (2019).

Reports an error in "The interpersonal costs of dishonesty: How dishonest behavior reduces individuals' ability to read others' emotions" by Julia J. Lee, Ashley E. Hardin, Bidhan Parmar, and Francesca Gino (, 2019[Sep], Vol 148[9], 1557-1574).

A sociocultural approach to voting: Construing voting as a duty to others predicts political interest and engagement.

A representative democracy requires citizens to be politically engaged; however, a substantial portion of eligible United States voters do not vote. While structural (e.g.

Biases in Improvement Decisions: People Focus on the Relative Reduction in Bad Outcomes.

People often decide whether to invest scarce resources-such as time, money, or energy-to improve their chances of a positive outcome. For example, a doctor might decide whether to utilize scarce medicine to improve a patient's chances of recovery, or a student might decide whether to study a few additional hours to increase their chances of passing an exam. We conducted 11 studies ( = 5,342 adults) and found evidence that people behave as if they focus on the relative reduction in bad outcomes caused by such improvements.

A data-driven approach for revealing the linkages between differences in electrochemical properties of biochar during anaerobic digestion using automated machine learning.

Biochar is commonly used to enhance the anaerobic digestion of organic waste solids and wastewater, due to its electrochemical properties, which intensify the electron transfer of microorganisms attached to its large surface area. However, it is difficult to create biochar with both high conductivity and high capacitance, which makes selecting the right biochar for engineering applications challenging. To address this issue, two Auto algorithms (TPOT and HO) were applied to model the effects of different biochar properties on anaerobic digestion processes.

The Accuracy of the NSQIP Universal Surgical Risk Calculator Compared to Operation-Specific Calculators.

Objective: To compare the performance of the ACS NSQIP "universal" risk calculator (N-RC) to operation-specific RCs.

Background: Resources have been directed toward building operation-specific RCs because of an implicit belief that they would provide more accurate risk estimates than the N-RC. However, operation-specific calculators may not provide sufficient improvements in accuracy to justify the costs in development, maintenance, and access.

Sharing names and information: Incidental similarities between CEOs and analysts can lead to favoritism in information disclosure.

When two people coincidentally have something in common (such as a name or birthday), they tend to like each other more and are thus more likely to offer help and comply with requests. This dynamic can have important legal and ethical consequences whenever these incidental similarities give rise to unfair favoritism. Using a large-scale, longitudinal natural experiment, covering nearly 200,000 annual earnings forecasts over more than 25 y, we show that when a CEO and a securities analyst share a first name, the analyst's financial forecast is more accurate.

Revealing varying relationships between wastewater mercury emissions and economic growth in Chinese cities.

Mercury emission from industrial wastewater has a great impact on the aquatic environment but is not well studied. Inventory analysis, decoupling and decomposition methods have been conducted based on the China Pollution Source Census dataset, which combines industry removal efficiencies to calculate mercury emissions from industrial wastewater in 340 cities in China during 2000-2010. The results show that over these 11 years, total mercury emissions and per capita mercury emissions increased by approximately 5 times, while the emission intensity increased by only about 3%.

Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery Accreditation and Quality Improvement Program: Bariatric Surgical Risk/Benefit Calculator: 1-year comorbidity remission.

Background: Clinical calculators can provide patient-personalized estimates of treatment risks and health outcomes. The American College of Surgeons Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery Accreditation and Quality Improvement Program (MBSAQIP) set out to create a publicly available tool to assess both short-term postoperative risk and long-term benefits for prospective adult patients eligible for 1 of 4 primary bariatric procedures. The calculator is comprised of multiple prediction elements: (1) 30-day postoperative risk, (2) 1-year body mass index projections, and (3) 1-year comorbidity remission.

National Multi-Institutional Validation of a Surgical Transfusion Risk Prediction Model.

Background: Accurate estimation of surgical transfusion risk is important for many aspects of surgical planning, yet few methods for estimating are available for estimating such risk. There is a need for reliable validated methods for transfusion risk stratification to support effective perioperative planning and resource stewardship.

Study Design: This study was conducted using the American College of Surgeons NSQIP datafile from 2019.

Association Between Socioeconomic Factors, Race, and Use of a Specialty Memory Clinic.

Background And Objectives: The capacity of specialty memory clinics in the United States is very limited. If lower socioeconomic status or minoritized racial group is associated with reduced use of memory clinics, this could exacerbate health care disparities, especially if more effective treatments of Alzheimer disease become available. We aimed to understand how use of a memory clinic is associated with neighborhood-level measures of socioeconomic factors and the intersectionality of race.

Conspiracy Theory as Individual and Group Behavior: Observations from the Flat Earth International Conference.

Conspiratorial thinking has been with humanity for a long time but has recently grown as a source of societal concern and as a subject of research in the cognitive and social sciences. We propose a three-tiered framework for the study of conspiracy theories: (1) cognitive processes, (2) the individual, and (3) social processes and communities of knowledge. At the level of cognitive processes, we identify explanatory coherence and faulty belief updating as critical ideas.

Influence of Perioperative COVID-19 Infection on Surgical Outcomes and Risk Adjustment for Quality Assessment in the American College of Surgeons NSQIP.

Background: Surgical patients with perioperative coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) infection experience higher rates of adverse events than those without COVID-19, which may lead to imprecision in hospital-level quality assessment. Our objectives were to quantify differences in COVID-19-associated adverse events in a large national sample and examine distortions in surgical quality benchmarking if COVID-19 status is not considered.

Study Design: Data included 793,280 patient records from the American College of Surgeons NSQIP from April 1, 2020, to March 31, 2021.

Sensory Loss and its Association with Different Types of Departures from the Labor Force Among Older Adults in the US.

To investigate the association between sensory loss and the timing and type of self-reported departures from the labor force, via retirement or disability, we used data from the Health and Retirement Study, cycles 2004-2018. Based on self-reported sensory loss, we classified individuals into four groups: no sensory loss, hearing loss only, vision loss only, and dual sensory loss (vision and hearing loss). We assumed that older adults could leave the labor force either by retirement or due to disability.

Evaluation of behavioral economic strategies to raise influenza vaccination rates across a health system: Results from a randomized clinical trial.

Influenza vaccination rates are low. Working with a large US health system, we evaluated three health system-wide interventions using the electronic health record's patient portal to improve influenza vaccination rates. We performed a two-arm RCT with a nested factorial design within the treatment arm, randomizing patients to usual-care control (no portal interventions) or to one or more portal interventions.

American College of Surgeons NSQIP Risk Calculator Accuracy Using a Machine Learning Algorithm Compared with Regression.

Background: The American College of Surgeons NSQIP risk calculator (RC) uses regression to make predictions for fourteen 30-day surgical outcomes. While this approach provides accurate (discrimination and calibration) risk estimates, they might be improved by machine learning (ML). To investigate this possibility, accuracy for regression-based risk estimates were compared to estimates from an extreme gradient boosting (XGB)-ML algorithm.

The Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery Accreditation and Quality Improvement Program Bariatric Surgical Risk/Benefit Calculator: 1-year weight.

Background: Data-driven tools can be designed to provide patient-personalized estimates of health outcomes. Clinical calculators are commonly built to assess risk, but potential benefits of treatment should be equally considered. The American College of Surgeons Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery Accreditation and Quality Improvement Program (MBSAQIP) sought to create a risk and benefit calculator for adult patients considering primary metabolic and bariatric surgery with multiple prediction features: (1) 30-day risk, (2) 1-year body mass index (BMI) projections, and (3) 1-year co-morbidity remission.

Paradoxes and mysteries in virus-infected supply chains: Hidden bottlenecks, changing consumer behaviors, and other non-usual suspects.

In the early onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S., consumers experienced surprising shortages of essential goods that appeared to be unrelated to the pandemic: toilet paper, yeast and flour, and meat cuts.

Emotion in Organizations: Theory and Research.

The workplace elicits a wide range of emotions and, likewise, emotions change our experience of the workplace. This article reviews the scientific field of emotion in organizations, drawing from classic theories and cutting-edge advances to integrate a disparate body of research. The review is organized around the definition of emotion as an unfolding sequence of processes: We interpret the world around us for its subjective meaning, which results in emotional experience.