Probabilistic domain-knowledge modeling of disorder pathogenesis for dynamics forecasting of acute onset.

Disease pathogenesis, a type of domain knowledge about biological mechanisms leading to diseases, has not been adequately encoded in machine-learning-based medical diagnostic models because of the inter-patient variabilities and complex dependencies of the underlying pathogenetic mechanisms. We propose 1) a novel pathogenesis probabilistic graphical model (PPGM) to quantify the dynamics underpinning patient-specific data and pathogenetic domain knowledge, 2) a Bayesian-based inference paradigm to answer the medical queries and forecast acute onsets. The PPGM model consists of two components: a Bayesian network of patient attributes and a temporal model of pathogenetic mechanisms.