The (in)visible health risks of climate change.

This paper scrutinizes the assertion that knowledge gaps concerning health risks from climate change are unjust, and must be addressed, because they hinder evidence-led interventions to protect vulnerable populations. First, we construct a taxonomy of six inter-related forms of invisibility (social marginalization, forced invisibility by migrants, spatial marginalization, neglected diseases, mental health, uneven climatic monitoring and forecasting) which underlie systematic biases in current understanding of these risks in Latin America, and advocate an approach to climate-health research that draws on intersectionality theory to address these inter-relations. We propose that these invisibilities should be understood as outcomes of structural imbalances in power and resources rather than as haphazard blindspots in scientific and state knowledge.

Estimating Secondary Organic Aerosol Production from Toluene Photochemistry in a Megacity of China.

The production of secondary organic aerosols (SOA) from toluene photochemistry in Shanghai, a megacity of China, was estimated by two approaches, the parametrization method and the tracer-based method. The temporal profiles of toluene, together with other fifty-six volatile organic compounds (VOCs), were characterized. Combing with the vapor wall loss corrected SOA yields derived from chamber experiments, the estimated toluene SOA by the parametrization method as embodied in the two-product model contributes up to ∼40% of the total SOA budget during summertime.

Amplification of future energy demand growth due to climate change.

Future energy demand is likely to increase due to climate change, but the magnitude depends on many interacting sources of uncertainty. We combine econometrically estimated responses of energy use to income, hot and cold days with future projections of spatial population and national income under five socioeconomic scenarios and temperature increases around 2050 for two emission scenarios simulated by 21 Earth System Models (ESMs). Here we show that, across 210 realizations of socioeconomic and climate scenarios, vigorous (moderate) warming increases global climate-exposed energy demand before adaptation around 2050 by 25-58% (11-27%), on top of a factor 1.

Effect of ship emissions on O in the Yangtze River Delta region of China: Analysis of WRF-Chem modeling.

The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region locates on the eastern coast of China, and it has suffered severe O pollutions due to high and mixed emissions of air pollutants. There are 3 different emission sectors for O precursors in the region, including anthropogenic VOC and NO emissions, ship emissions (mainly NO), and biogenic emissions from a large forest (biogenic VOC). This unique emission mixture produces complicated chemical processes in studying the O pollutions in the region.

The influence of mixing on stratospheric age of air changes in the 21st century.

Climate models consistently predict an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) due to climate change in the 21st century. However, the strength of this acceleration varies considerably among individual models, which constitutes a notable source of uncertainty for future climate projections. To shed more light upon the magnitude of this uncertainty and on its causes, we analyze the stratospheric mean age of air (AoA) of 10 climate projection simulations from the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative phase 1 (CCMI-I), covering the period between 1960 and 2100.

Tropospheric ozone in CCMI models and Gaussian process emulation to understand biases in the SOCOLv3 chemistry-climate model.

Previous multi-model intercomparisons have shown that chemistry-climate models exhibit significant biases in tropospheric ozone compared with observations. We investigate annual-mean tropospheric column ozone in 15 models participating in the SPARC/IGAC (Stratosphere-troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate/International Global Atmospheric Chemistry) Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). These models exhibit a positive bias, on average, of up to 40-50% in the Northern Hemisphere compared with observations derived from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument and Microwave Limb Sounder (OMI/MLS), and a negative bias of up to ~30% in the Southern Hemisphere.

Monitoring emissions from the 2015 Indonesian fires using CO satellite data.

Southeast Asia, in particular Indonesia, has periodically struggled with intense fire events. These events convert substantial amounts of carbon stored as peat to atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO) and significantly affect atmospheric composition on a regional to global scale. During the recent 2015 El Niño event, peat fires led to strong enhancements of carbon monoxide (CO), an air pollutant and well-known tracer for biomass burning.

Effect of biomass burning on black carbon (BC) in South Asia and Tibetan Plateau: The analysis of WRF-Chem modeling.

The focus of this study is to evaluate the impact of biomass burning (BB) from South Asia and Southeast Asia on the glaciers over the Tibetan Plateau. The seasonality and long-term trend of biomass fires measured by Terra and Aqua satellite data from 2010 to 2016 are used in this study. The analysis shows that the biomass burnings were widely dispersed in the continental of Indian and Southeast Asia and existed a strong seasonal variation.

Climate, ecosystems, and planetary futures: The challenge to predict life in Earth system models.

Many global change stresses on terrestrial and marine ecosystems affect not only ecosystem services that are essential to humankind, but also the trajectory of future climate by altering energy and mass exchanges with the atmosphere. Earth system models, which simulate terrestrial and marine ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles, offer a common framework for ecological research related to climate processes; analyses of vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation; and climate change mitigation. They provide an opportunity to move beyond physical descriptors of atmospheric and oceanic states to societally relevant quantities such as wildfire risk, habitat loss, water availability, and crop, fishery, and timber yields.

HTAP2 multi-model estimates of premature human mortality due to intercontinental transport of air pollution and emission sectors.

Ambient air pollution from ozone and fine particulate matter is associated with premature mortality. As emissions from one continent influence air quality over others, changes in emissions can also influence human health on other continents. We estimate global air pollution-related premature mortality from exposure to PM and ozone, and the avoided deaths from 20% anthropogenic emission reductions from six source regions, North America (NAM), Europe (EUR), South Asia (SAS), East Asia (EAS), Russia/Belarus/Ukraine (RBU) and the Middle East (MDE), three global emission sectors, Power and Industry (PIN), Ground Transportation (TRN) and Residential (RES) and one global domain (GLO), using an ensemble of global chemical transport model simulations coordinated by the second phase of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP2), and epidemiologically-derived concentration-response functions.

The amplifying influence of increased ocean stratification on a future year without a summer.

In 1816, the coldest summer of the past two centuries was observed over northeastern North America and western Europe. This so-called Year Without a Summer (YWAS) has been widely attributed to the 1815 eruption of Indonesia's Mt. Tambora and was concurrent with agricultural failures and famines worldwide.

Long-term trend of O in a mega City (Shanghai), China: Characteristics, causes, and interactions with precursors.

In recent years, ozone (O) is often the major pollutant during summertime in China. In order to better understand this problem, a long-term measurement of ozone (from 2006 to 2015) and its precursors (NO and VOCs) as well as the photochemical parameter (UV radiation) in a mega city of China (Shanghai) is analyzed. The focus of this study is to investigate the trend of O and the causes of the O trend in large cities in China.

Assessing the uptake of persistent identifiers by research infrastructure users.

Significant progress has been made in the past few years in the development of recommendations, policies, and procedures for creating and promoting citations to data sets, software, and other research infrastructures like computing facilities. Open questions remain, however, about the extent to which referencing practices of authors of scholarly publications are changing in ways desired by these initiatives. This paper uses four focused case studies to evaluate whether research infrastructures are being increasingly identified and referenced in the research literature via persistent citable identifiers.

Impacts of uncertainties in European gridded precipitation observations on regional climate analysis.

Gridded precipitation data sets are frequently used to evaluate climate models or to remove model output biases. Although precipitation data are error prone due to the high spatio-temporal variability of precipitation and due to considerable measurement errors, relatively few attempts have been made to account for observational uncertainty in model evaluation or in bias correction studies. In this study, we compare three types of European daily data sets featuring two Pan-European data sets and a set that combines eight very high-resolution station-based regional data sets.

Estimates of Health Impacts and Radiative Forcing in Winter Haze in Eastern China through Constraints of Surface PM Predictions.

The Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) Three-Dimensional Variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system is extended to treat the MOSAIC aerosol model in WRF-Chem, and to be capable of assimilating surface PM concentrations. The coupled GSI-WRF-Chem system is applied to reproduce aerosol levels over China during an extremely polluted winter month, January 2013. After assimilating surface PM concentrations, the correlation coefficients between observations and model results averaged over the assimilated sites are improved from 0.

Practice and philosophy of climate model tuning across six U.S. modeling centers.

Model calibration (or "tuning") is a necessary part of developing and testing coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models regardless of their main scientific purpose. There is an increasing recognition that this process needs to become more transparent for both users of climate model output and other developers. Knowing how and why climate models are tuned and which targets are used is essential to avoiding possible misattributions of skillful predictions to data accommodation and vice versa.

Effect of hydrolysis of NO on nitrate and ammonium formation in Beijing China: WRF-Chem model simulation.

Beijing, the capital of China, is a mega city with a population of >20 million. In recent years, the city has experienced heavy air pollution, with particulate matter (PM) being one of its top pollutants. In the last decade, extensive efforts have been made to characterize the sources, properties, and processes of PM in Beijing.

Impact of the 2015 El Nino event on winter air quality in China.

During the winter of 2015, there was a strong El Nino (ENSO) event, resulting in significant anomalies for meteorological conditions in China. Analysis shows that the meteorological conditions in December 2015 (compared to December 2014) had several important anomalies, including the following: (1) the surface southeasterly winds were significantly enhanced in the North China Plain (NCP); (2) the precipitation was increased in the south of eastern China; and (3) the wind speeds were decreased in the middle-north of eastern China, while slightly increased in the south of eastern China. These meteorological anomalies produced important impacts on the aerosol pollution in eastern China.

The Regional Impacts of Cooking and Heating Emissions on Ambient Air Quality and Disease Burden in China.

Exposure to air pollution is a major risk factor globally and particularly in Asia. A large portion of air pollutants result from residential combustion of solid biomass and coal fuel for cooking and heating. This study presents a regional modeling sensitivity analysis to estimate the impact of residential emissions from cooking and heating activities on the burden of disease at a provincial level in China.

Response to Comment on "Long-term climate forcing by atmospheric oxygen concentrations".

Goldblatt argues that a decrease in pressure broadening of absorption lines in an atmosphere with low oxygen leads to an increase in outgoing longwave radiation and atmospheric cooling. We demonstrate that cloud and water vapor feedbacks in a global climate model compensate for these decreases and lead to atmospheric warming.

Emergence of healing in the Antarctic ozone layer.

Industrial chlorofluorocarbons that cause ozone depletion have been phased out under the Montreal Protocol. A chemically driven increase in polar ozone (or "healing") is expected in response to this historic agreement. Observations and model calculations together indicate that healing of the Antarctic ozone layer has now begun to occur during the month of September.

On the feasibility of monitoring carbon monoxide in the lower troposphere from a constellation of Northern Hemisphere geostationary satellites: global scale assimilation experiments (Part II).

This paper describes the second phase of an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) that utilizes the synthetic measurements from a constellation of satellites measuring atmospheric composition from geostationary (GEO) Earth orbit presented in part I of the study. Our OSSE is focused on carbon monoxide observations over North America, East Asia and Europe where most of the anthropogenic sources are located. Here we assess the impact of a potential GEO constellation on constraining northern hemisphere (NH) carbon monoxide (CO) using data assimilation.

Large-scale magnetic fields at high Reynolds numbers in magnetohydrodynamic simulations.

The 11-year solar magnetic cycle shows a high degree of coherence in spite of the turbulent nature of the solar convection zone. It has been found in recent high-resolution magnetohydrodynamics simulations that the maintenance of a large-scale coherent magnetic field is difficult with small viscosity and magnetic diffusivity (≲10 (12) square centimenters per second). We reproduced previous findings that indicate a reduction of the energy in the large-scale magnetic field for lower diffusivities and demonstrate the recovery of the global-scale magnetic field using unprecedentedly high resolution.

The Footprint of the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation in Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures.

Superimposed on a pronounced warming trend, the Indian Ocean (IO) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) also show considerable decadal variations that can cause regional climate oscillations around the IO. However, the mechanisms of the IO decadal variability remain unclear. Here we perform numerical experiments using a state-of-the-art, fully coupled climate model in which the external forcings with or without the observed SSTs in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean (TEP) are applied for 1871-2012.