Clouds and Convective Self-Aggregation in a Multimodel Ensemble of Radiative-Convective Equilibrium Simulations.

The Radiative-Convective Equilibrium Model Intercomparison Project (RCEMIP) is an intercomparison of multiple types of numerical models configured in radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE). RCE is an idealization of the tropical atmosphere that has long been used to study basic questions in climate science. Here, we employ RCE to investigate the role that clouds and convective activity play in determining cloud feedbacks, climate sensitivity, the state of convective aggregation, and the equilibrium climate.

An Efficient Ice Sheet/Earth System Model Spin-up Procedure for CESM2-CISM2: Description, Evaluation, and Broader Applicability.

Spinning up a highly complex, coupled Earth system model (ESM) is a time consuming and computationally demanding exercise. For models with interactive ice sheet components, this becomes a major challenge, as ice sheets are sensitive to bidirectional feedback processes and equilibrate over glacial timescales of up to many millennia. This work describes and demonstrates a computationally tractable, iterative procedure for spinning up a contemporary, highly complex ESM that includes an interactive ice sheet component.

Confronting the Challenge of Modeling Cloud and Precipitation Microphysics.

In the atmosphere, refers to the microscale processes that affect cloud and precipitation particles and is a key linkage among the various components of Earth's atmospheric water and energy cycles. The representation of microphysical processes in models continues to pose a major challenge leading to uncertainty in numerical weather forecasts and climate simulations. In this paper, the problem of treating microphysics in models is divided into two parts: (i) how to represent the population of cloud and precipitation particles, given the impossibility of simulating all particles individually within a cloud, and (ii) uncertainties in the microphysical process rates owing to fundamental gaps in knowledge of cloud physics.

Time of Emergence and Large Ensemble Intercomparison for Ocean Biogeochemical Trends.

Anthropogenically forced changes in ocean biogeochemistry are underway and critical for the ocean carbon sink and marine habitat. Detecting such changes in ocean biogeochemistry will require quantification of the magnitude of the change (anthropogenic signal) and the natural variability inherent to the climate system (noise). Here we use Large Ensemble (LE) experiments from four Earth system models (ESMs) with multiple emissions scenarios to estimate Time of Emergence (ToE) and partition projection uncertainty for anthropogenic signals in five biogeochemically important upper-ocean variables.

Ballooning-Interchange Instability in the Near-Earth Plasma Sheet and Auroral Beads: Global Magnetospheric Modeling at the Limit of the MHD Approximation.

Explosive magnetotail activity has long been understood in the context of its auroral manifestations. While global models have been used to interpret and understand many magnetospheric processes, the temporal and spatial scales of some auroral forms have been inaccessible to global modeling creating a gulf between observational and theoretical studies of these phenomena. We present here an important step toward bridging this gulf using a newly developed global magnetosphere-ionosphere model with resolution capturing 30 km azimuthal scales in the auroral zone.

Understanding of Contemporary Regional Sea-Level Change and the Implications for the Future.

Global sea level provides an important indicator of the state of the warming climate, but changes in regional sea level are most relevant for coastal communities around the world. With improvements to the sea-level observing system, the knowledge of regional sea-level change has advanced dramatically in recent years. Satellite measurements coupled with in situ observations have allowed for comprehensive study and improved understanding of the diverse set of drivers that lead to variations in sea level in space and time.

The Response in Air Quality to the Reduction of Chinese Economic Activities During the COVID-19 Outbreak.

During the COVID-19 outbreak that took place in early 2020, the economic activities in China were drastically reduced and accompanied by a strong reduction in the emission of primary air pollutants. On the basis of measurements made at the monitoring stations operated by the China National Environmental Monitoring Center, we quantify the reduction in surface PM, NO, CO, and SO concentrations in northern China during the lockdown, which started on 23 January 2020. We find that, on the average, the levels of surface PM and NO have decreased by approximately 35% and 60%, respectively, between the period 1 and 22 January 2020 and the period 23 January and 29 February 2020.

Bounding Global Aerosol Radiative Forcing of Climate Change.

Aerosols interact with radiation and clouds. Substantial progress made over the past 40 years in observing, understanding, and modeling these processes helped quantify the imbalance in the Earth's radiation budget caused by anthropogenic aerosols, called aerosol radiative forcing, but uncertainties remain large. This review provides a new range of aerosol radiative forcing over the industrial era based on multiple, traceable, and arguable lines of evidence, including modeling approaches, theoretical considerations, and observations.

A Survey of Small-Scale Waves and Wave-Like Phenomena in Jupiter's Atmosphere Detected by JunoCam.

In the first 20 orbits of the Juno spacecraft around Jupiter, we have identified a variety of wave-like features in images made by its public-outreach camera, JunoCam. Because of Juno's unprecedented and repeated proximity to Jupiter's cloud tops during its close approaches, JunoCam has detected more wave structures than any previous surveys. Most of the waves appear in long wave packets, oriented east-west and populated by narrow wave crests.

Combining In Situ and Satellite Observations to Understand the Vertical Structure of Tropical Anvil Cloud Microphysical Properties During the TC4 Experiment.

Tropical anvil clouds have a profound impact on Earth's weather and climate. Their role in Earth's energy balance and hydrologic cycle is heavily modulated by the vertical structure of the microphysical properties for various hydrometeors in these clouds and their dependence on the ambient environmental conditions. Accurate representations of the variability and covariability of such vertical structures are key to both the satellite remote sensing of cloud and precipitation and numerical modeling of weather and climate, which remain a challenge.

Simulated Trends in Ionosphere-Thermosphere Climate Due to Predicted Main Magnetic Field Changes From 2015 to 2065.

The strength and structure of the Earth's magnetic field is gradually changing. During the next 50 years the dipole moment is predicted to decrease by 3.5%, with the South Atlantic Anomaly expanding, deepening, and continuing to move westward, while the magnetic dip poles move northwestward.

Evaluating the Impact of Assimilating Aerosol Optical Depth Observations on Dust Forecasts Over North Africa and the East Atlantic Using Different Data Assimilation Methods.

This study evaluates the impact of assimilating moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol optical depth (AOD) data using different data assimilation (DA) methods on dust analyses and forecasts over North Africa and tropical North Atlantic. To do so, seven experiments are conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting dust model and the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation analysis system. Six of these experiments differ in whether or not AOD observations are assimilated and the DA method used, the latter of which includes the three-dimensional variational (3D-Var), ensemble square root filter (EnSRF), and hybrid methods.

Quantification of the Arctic Sea Ice-Driven Atmospheric Circulation Variability in Coordinated Large Ensemble Simulations.

A coordinated set of large ensemble atmosphere-only simulations is used to investigate the impacts of observed Arctic sea ice-driven variability (SIDV) on the atmospheric circulation during 1979-2014. The experimental protocol permits separating Arctic SIDV from internal variability and variability driven by other forcings including sea surface temperature and greenhouse gases. The geographic pattern of SIDV is consistent across seven participating models, but its magnitude strongly depends on ensemble size.

Insignificant QBO-MJO Prediction Skill Relationship in the SubX and S2S Subseasonal Reforecasts.

The impact of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on the prediction of the tropospheric Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is evaluated in reforecasts from nine models participating in subseasonal prediction projects, including the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) and Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) projects. When MJO prediction skill is analyzed for December to February, MJO prediction skill is higher in the easterly phase of the QBO than the westerly phase, consistent with previous studies. However, the relationship between QBO phase and MJO prediction skill is not statistically significant for most models.

Beyond Static Benchmarking: Using Experimental Manipulations to Evaluate Land Model Assumptions.

Land models are often used to simulate terrestrial responses to future environmental changes, but these models are not commonly evaluated with data from experimental manipulations. Results from experimental manipulations can identify and evaluate model assumptions that are consistent with appropriate ecosystem responses to future environmental change. We conducted simulations using three coupled carbon-nitrogen versions of the Community Land Model (CLM, versions 4, 4.

The Relationship Between U.S. East Coast Sea Level and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A Review.

Scientific and societal interest in the relationship between the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and U.S. East Coast sea level has intensified over the past decade, largely due to (1) projected, and potentially ongoing, enhancement of sea level rise associated with AMOC weakening and (2) the potential for observations of U.

The Impact of Rimed Ice Hydrometeors on Global and Regional Climate.

Rimed hydrometeors (graupel or hail) are added to a stratiform cloud scheme for global models and tested in a variety of configurations. Off-line tests compare well to other cloud microphysics schemes with rimed ice used in mesoscale models. Tests in single column and climate mode show expected production of small amounts of rimed ice in the middle troposphere and at high latitudes.

Reframing Future Risks of Extreme Heat in the United States.

The goal of this study is to reframe the analysis and discussion of extreme heat projections to improve communication of future extreme heat risks in the United States. We combine existing data from 31 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models to examine future exposure to extreme heat for global average temperatures of 1.5, 2, 3, and 4 °C above a preindustrial baseline.

Balance of Emission and Dynamical Controls on Ozone During the Korea-United States Air Quality Campaign From Multiconstituent Satellite Data Assimilation.

Global multiconstituent concentration and emission fields obtained from the assimilation of the satellite retrievals of ozone, CO, NO, HNO, and SO from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment 2, Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere, Microwave Limb Sounder, and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS)/OMI are used to understand the processes controlling air pollution during the Korea-United States Air Quality (KORUS-AQ) campaign. Estimated emissions in South Korea were 0.42 Tg N for NO and 1.

Efficient In-Cloud Removal of Aerosols by Deep Convection.

Convective systems dominate the vertical transport of aerosols and trace gases. The most recent in situ aerosol measurements presented here show that the concentrations of primary aerosols including sea salt and black carbon drop by factors of 10 to 10,000 from the surface to the upper troposphere. In this study we show that the default convective transport scheme in the National Science Foundation/Department of Energy Community Earth System Model results in a high bias of 10-1,000 times the measured aerosol mass for black carbon and sea salt in the middle and upper troposphere.

Exacerbation of the 2013-2016 Pan-Caribbean Drought by Anthropogenic Warming.

The Caribbean islands are expected to see more frequent and severe droughts from reduced precipitation and increased evaporative demand due to anthropogenic climate change. Between 2013 and 2016, the Caribbean experienced a widespread drought due in part to El Niño in 2015-2016, but it is unknown whether its severity was exacerbated by anthropogenic warming. This work examines the role of recent warming on this drought, using a recently developed high-resolution self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index data set.

Forcing Single-Column Models Using High-Resolution Model Simulations.

To use single-column models (SCMs) as a research tool for parameterization development and process studies, the SCM must be supplied with realistic initial profiles, forcing fields, and boundary conditions. We propose a new technique for deriving these required profiles, motivated by the increase in number and scale of high-resolution convection-permitting simulations. We suggest that these high-resolution simulations be coarse grained to the required resolution of an SCM, and thereby be used as a proxy for the true atmosphere.

Global, Regional, and Megacity Trends in the Highest Temperature of the Year: Diagnostics and Evidence for Accelerating Trends.

Trends in short-lived high-temperature extremes record a different dimension of change than the extensively studied annual and seasonal mean daily temperatures. They also have important socioeconomic, environmental, and human health implications. Here, we present analysis of the highest temperature of the year for approximately 9000 stations globally, focusing on quantifying spatially explicit exceedance probabilities during the recent 50- and 30-year periods.

Turbulence in breaking mountain waves and atmospheric rotors estimated from airborne and Doppler radar measurements.

Atmospheric turbulence generated in flow over mountainous terrain is studied using airborne and cloud radar measurements over the Medicine Bow Mountains in southeast Wyoming, USA. During the NASA Orographic Clouds Experiment (NASA06) in 2006, two complex mountain flow cases were documented by the University of Wyoming King Air research aircraft carrying the Wyoming Cloud Radar. The structure of turbulence and its intensity across the mountain range are described using the variance of vertical velocity σw2 and the cube root of the energy dissipation rate (EDR).