Climate Change Impacts Pair-Bond Dynamics in a Long-Lived Monogamous Species.

Climate change can influence populations of monogamous species by affecting pair-bond dynamics. This study examined the impact of climate on widowhood and divorce, and the subsequent effects on individual vital rates and life-history outcomes over 54 years in a snow petrel (Pagodroma nivea) population. We found that environmental conditions can affect pair-bond dynamics both directly and indirectly.

GARD-LENS: A downscaled large ensemble dataset for understanding future climate and its uncertainties.

This article introduces the Generalized Analog Regression Downscaling method Large Ensemble (GARD-LENS) dataset, comprised of daily precipitation, mean temperature, and temperature range over the Contiguous U.S., Alaska, and Hawaii at 12-km, 4-km, and 1-km resolutions, respectively.

How changes projected by climate models can inform climate adaptation and marine sanctuary management: A collaborative prototype methodology.

Coral reefs are highly important ecosystems providing habitat for biodiverse marine life and numerous benefits for humans. However they face immense risks from climate change. To date, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate models have aided global discussions on possible policy responses to adapt to change, but tailored climate projections at a useful scale for environmental managers are often prohibitively expensive to produce.

Response of biogenic secondary organic aerosol formation to anthropogenic NOx emission mitigation.

This study investigates the effects of anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NOx) mitigation reduction on secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation from monoterpene and sesquiterpene precursors across Europe, using the three-dimensional (3-D) Chemical Transport Model (CTM) CHIMERE. Two SOA mechanisms of varying complexity are employed: the GENOA-generated Biogenic Mechanism (GBM) and the Hydrophobic/Hydrophilic Organic mechanism (HO). GBM is a condensed SOA mechanism generated by automatic reduction from near-explicit chemical mechanisms (i.

Trust and trustworthy artificial intelligence: A research agenda for AI in the environmental sciences.

Demands to manage the risks of artificial intelligence (AI) are growing. These demands and the government standards arising from them both call for trustworthy AI. In response, we adopt a convergent approach to review, evaluate, and synthesize research on the trust and trustworthiness of AI in the environmental sciences and propose a research agenda.

Profile observations of the Arctic atmospheric boundary layer with the BELUGA tethered balloon during MOSAiC.

During the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition, the Balloon-bornE moduLar Utility for profilinG the lower Atmosphere (BELUGA) was deployed from an ice floe drifting in the Fram Strait from 29 June to 27 July 2020. The BELUGA observations aimed to characterize the cloudy Arctic atmospheric boundary layer above the sea ice using a modular setup of five instrument packages. The in situ measurements included atmospheric thermodynamic and dynamic state parameters (air temperature, humidity, pressure, and three-dimensional wind), broadband solar and terrestrial irradiance, aerosol particle microphysical properties, and cloud particle images.

The oxDNA Coarse-Grained Model as a Tool to Simulate DNA Origami.

This chapter introduces how to run molecular dynamics simulations for DNA origami using the oxDNA coarse-grained model.

Automated design of 3D DNA origami with non-rasterized 2D curvature.

Improving the precision and function of encapsulating three-dimensional (3D) DNA nanostructures via curved geometries could have transformative impacts on areas such as molecular transport, drug delivery, and nanofabrication. However, the addition of non-rasterized curvature escalates design complexity without algorithmic regularity, and these challenges have limited the ad hoc development and usage of previously unknown shapes. In this work, we develop and automate the application of a set of previously unknown design principles that now includes a multilayer design for closed and curved DNA nanostructures to resolve past obstacles in shape selection, yield, mechanical rigidity, and accessibility.

Variability, skipped breeding and heavy-tailed dynamics in an Antarctic seabird.

The population dynamics of many colonially breeding seabirds are characterized by large interannual fluctuations that cannot be explained by environmental conditions alone. This variation may be particularly confounded by the use of skipped breeding by seabirds as a life-history strategy, which directly impacts the number of breeding pairs and may affect the accuracy of breeding abundance as a metric of population health. Additionally, large fluctuations in time series may suggest that the underlying population dynamics are heavy tailed, allowing for a higher likelihood of extreme events than expected under Gaussian dynamics.

Ensemble-Based Assimilation of Satellite All-Sky Microwave Radiances Improves Intensity and Rainfall Predictions for Hurricane Harvey (2017).

Ensemble-based data assimilation of radar observations across inner-core regions of tropical cyclones (TCs) in tandem with satellite all-sky infrared (IR) radiances across the TC domain improves TC track and intensity forecasts. This study further investigates potential enhancements in TC track, intensity, and rainfall forecasts via assimilation of all-sky microwave (MW) radiances using Hurricane Harvey (2017) as an example. Assimilating Global Precipitation Measurement constellation all-sky MW radiances in addition to GOES-16 all-sky IR radiances reduces the forecast errors in the TC track, rapid intensification (RI), and peak intensity compared to assimilating all-sky IR radiances alone, including a 24-hr increase in forecast lead-time for RI.

Contributions of Traffic and Industrial Emission Reductions to the Air Quality Improvement after the Lockdown of Wuhan and Neighboring Cities Due to COVID-19.

Wuhan was locked down from 23 January to 8 April 2020 to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Both public and private transportation in Wuhan and its neighboring cities in Hubei Province were suspended or restricted, and the manufacturing industry was partially shut down. This study collected and investigated ground monitoring data to prove that the lockdowns of the cities had significant influences on the air quality in Wuhan.

Legislative and functional aspects of different metrics used for ozone risk assessment to forests.

Surface ozone (O) is a threat to forests by decreasing photosynthesis and, consequently, influencing the strength of land carbon sink. However, due to the lack of continuous surface O measurements, observational-based assessments of O impacts on forests are largely missing at hemispheric to global scales. Currently, some metrics are used for regulatory purposes by governments or national agencies to protect forests against the negative impacts of ozone: in particular, both Europe and United States (US) makes use of two different exposure-based metrics, i.

Towards advancing scientific knowledge of climate change impacts on short-duration rainfall extremes.

A large number of recent studies have aimed at understanding short-duration rainfall extremes, due to their impacts on flash floods, landslides and debris flows and potential for these to worsen with global warming. This has been led in a concerted international effort by the INTENSE Crosscutting Project of the GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Exchanges) Hydroclimatology Panel. Here, we summarize the main findings so far and suggest future directions for research, including: the benefits of convection-permitting climate modelling; towards understanding mechanisms of change; the usefulness of temperature-scaling relations; towards detecting and attributing extreme rainfall change; and the need for international coordination and collaboration.

Exposing the urban continuum: Implications and cross-comparison from an interdisciplinary perspective.

There is an increasing availability of geospatial data describing patterns of human settlement and population such as various global remote-sensing based built-up land layers, fine-grained census-based population estimates, and publicly available cadastral and building footprint data. This development constitutes new integrative modelling opportunities to characterize the continuum of urban, peri-urban, and rural settlements and populations. However, little research has been done regarding the agreement between such data products in measuring human presence which is measured by different proxy variables (i.

Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble.

Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere-only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950-2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models.

Mapping of 30-meter resolution tile-drained croplands using a geospatial modeling approach.

Tile drainage is one of the dominant agricultural management practices in the United States and has greatly expanded since the late 1990s. It has proven effects on land surface water balance and quantity and quality of streamflow at the local scale. The effect of tile drainage on crop production, hydrology, and the environment on a regional scale is elusive due to lack of high-resolution, spatially-explicit tile drainage area information for the Contiguous United States (CONUS).

Intersecting vulnerabilities: climatic and demographic contributions to future population exposure to -borne viruses in the United States.

Understanding how climate change and demographic factors may shape future population exposure to viruses such as Zika, dengue, or chikungunya, transmitted by mosquitoes is essential to improving public health preparedness. In this study, we combine projections of cumulative monthly -borne virus transmission risk with spatially explicit population projections for vulnerable demographic groups to explore future county-level population exposure across the conterminous United States. We employ a scenario matrix-combinations of climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) and socioeconomic scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways)-to assess the full range of uncertainty in emissions, socioeconomic development, and demographic change.

Examining the Potential of a Random Forest Derived Cloud Mask from GOES-R Satellites to Improve Solar Irradiance Forecasting.

In order for numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to correctly predict solar irradiance reaching the earth's surface for more accurate solar power forecasting, it is important to initialize the NWP model with accurate cloud information. Knowing where the clouds are located is the first step. Using data from geostationary satellites is an attractive possibility given the low latencies and high spatio-temporal resolution provided nowadays.

Direct Radiative Effect and Public Health Implications of Aerosol Emissions Associated with Shifting to Gasoline Direct Injection (GDI) Technologies in Light-Duty Vehicles in the United States.

Due to their enhanced fuel economy, the market share of gasoline direct injection (GDI) vehicles has increased significantly over the past decade. However, GDI engines emit higher levels of black carbon (BC) aerosols compared to traditional port fuel injection (PFI) engines. Here, we performed coupled chemical transport and radiative transfer simulations to estimate the aerosol-induced public health and direct radiative effects of shifting the U.

Characterizing the role of socioeconomic pathways in shaping future urban heat-related challenges.

Urban dwellers worldwide are increasingly affected by more frequent and intense extreme temperature events, ongoing urbanization, and changes in socioeconomic conditions. Decades of research have shown that vulnerability is a crucial determinant of heat-related risk and mortality in cities, yet assessments of future urban heat-related challenges have largely overlooked the contribution of changes in socioeconomic conditions to future heat-related risk and mortality. The scenario framework for climate change research, made up of socioeconomic scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways - SSPs) combined with climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways - RCPs), facilitates the integration of socioeconomic scenarios into climate risks assessments.

Ultraviolet radiation modelling using output from the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative.

We have derived values of the Ultraviolet Index (UVI) at solar noon using the Tropospheric Ultraviolet Model (TUV) driven by ozone, temperature and aerosol fields from climate simulations of the first phase of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1). Since clouds remain one of the largest uncertainties in climate projections, we simulated only the clear-sky UVI. We compared the modelled UVI climatologies against present-day climatological values of UVI derived from both satellite data (the OMI-Aura OMUVBd product) and ground-based measurements (from the NDACC network).