Lung cancer incidence and mortality in trend and prediction between 2012-2030 in Shandong Province, using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model.

Objectives: Lung cancer is one of the most common cancers in Shandong Province, China. Projecting future cancer trend is crucial for planning cancer control. We aimed to examine the trend of lung cancer incidence and mortality from 2012 to 2023, and predict the lung cancer burden to 2030 in Shandong.

[Trends of stomach cancer incidence and mortality in Shandong province from 2012 to 2012 and predictions from 2023 to 2030].

We aimed to analyse the trend of incidence and mortality of stomach cancer in Shandong province from 2012 to 2022 and predict the development trend from 2023 to 2030. Data on incidence and mortality of stomach cancer in Shandong province from 2012 to 2022 were obtained from Shandong Cancer Registry. The incidence, age-specific incidence, mortality and age-specific mortality in different years, sexes and urban and rural areas were calculated, the rates were standardized based on the age composition of the Chinese standard population in 2000.

[Analysis of the incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer in Shandong Province from 2012 to 2022 based on the age-period-cohort model].

To analyze the trend of incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer and estimate its age-period-cohort effect in Shandong Province from 2012 to 2022. The Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the trend of incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer and calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) based on the data on thyroid cancer from 2012 to 2022. The age-period-cohort model was used to analyze the age-effect, time-effect and cohort-effect of thyroid cancer risk in the population aged over 20 years.

[Cancer survival during 2012-2018 in cancer registries of Shandong Province].

To analyze the 5-year cancer relative survival rate in cancer registries of Shandong Province during 2012-2018. 399 072 new cancer cases were collected in 23 cancer registries in Shandong Province during 2012-2018. All malignant tumors (C00-C97, D45-D47), benign central nervous system tumors (D32-D33), and central nervous system tumors (D42-D43) were registered according to the 10th revision of international classification of diseases (ICD).