260 results match your criteria: "Institute of Climate and Energy Systems - Jülich Systems Analysis[Affiliation]"

Modeling Hydrogen Markets: Energy System Model Development Status and Decarbonization Scenario Results.

Energy Clim Chang

December 2024

South China University of Technology, School of Future Technology, 777 Xingye Ave East, Panyu District, Guangzhou, Guangdong, 511442, China.

Hydrogen can be used as an energy carrier and chemical feedstock to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, especially in difficult-to-decarbonize markets such as medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, aviation and maritime, iron and steel, and the production of fuels and chemicals. Significant literature has been accumulated on engineering-based assessments of various hydrogen technologies, and real-world projects are validating technology performance at larger scales and for low-carbon supply chains. While energy system models continue to be updated to track this progress, many are currently limited in their representation of hydrogen, and as a group they tend to generate highly variable results under decarbonization constraints.

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While extreme events have been a focus of research for several decades, often centered around the causes and impacts of meteorological and climatological events, the term has expanded into a range of other disciplines, exploring a wide variety of associated topics. Analytical tools and definitions have hereby posed a challenge that has been addressed in different ways. Drawing from a broad body of research on extreme events, this review takes into account the often complex and cascading nature of extreme events in order to provide a large-scale overview of the main themes, discussions and trends of extreme event research.

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Recognising the urgent need to address water scarcity resulting from climate change, there is a growing push to enhance the resilience of water (and related) systems. For instance, policymakers are now urging companies to shift from short-term focused strategies towards long-term approaches to effectively manage water scarcity. This paper utilises a custom-built dynamic multisectoral model to assess the socio-economic impacts at a macro-level of temporary water scarcity.

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Due to insufficient climate action over the past decade, it is increasingly likely that 1.5 °C of global warming will be exceeded - at least temporarily - in the 21 century. Such a temporary temperature overshoot carries additional climate risks which are poorly understood.

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The reuse of research software is central to research efficiency and academic exchange. The application of software enables researchers to reproduce, validate, and expand upon study findings. The analysis of open-source code aids in the comprehension, comparison, and integration of approaches.

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Health benefits of decarbonization and clean air policies in Beijing and China.

Environ Res Lett

December 2024

Department of Environmental Engineering, School of Energy and Environmental Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, People's Republic of China.

Although China has seen strong reductions in air pollution levels in the last decade, PM concentrations still exceed the WHO Guideline several times, causing a substantial burden of mortality and morbidity. With many 'low hanging fruits' in terms of abatement measures already taken, further improvements will be more difficult and likely require different strategies than pursued so far. This study looks into the trends expected under current energy policies and air pollution control legislation and analyses the source contributions to ambient PM in China, with a special focus on the megacity of Beijing.

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The 2024 China report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: launching a new low-carbon, healthy journey.

Lancet Public Health

December 2024

Department of Earth Sciences and Department of Geography, and Institute for Climate and Carbon Neutrality, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China. Electronic address:

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Implications of accelerated and delayed climate action for Ireland's energy transition under carbon budgets.

NPJ Clim Action

November 2024

MaREI, the Research Ireland Centre for Energy, Climate and Marine, Environmental Research Institute, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland.

Limiting global warming requires the effective implementation of energy mitigation measures by individual countries. However, the consequences of the timing of these efforts on the technical feasibility of adhering to cumulative carbon budgets-which determines future global warming-are underexplored. Moreover, existing national studies on carbon budgets either overlook integrated sectoral interactions, path dependencies, or comprehensive demand-side strategies.

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Article Synopsis
  • The world is nearing the critical threshold of 1.5°C warming, with 2023 recording an average temperature rise of 1.45°C since pre-industrial times, leading to severe climate-related impacts.
  • The Countdown collaboration, formed to assess the health impacts of climate change post-Paris Agreement, involves over 300 experts analyzing data and trends annually.
  • The 2024 report highlights troubling increases in climate-related health risks, such as a staggering 167% rise in heat-related deaths among seniors, indicating worsening conditions affecting wellbeing globally.
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Article Synopsis
  • The European Union is working towards climate neutrality by 2050, highlighting the need to explore greenhouse gas reduction and carbon dioxide removal strategies from a comprehensive life cycle perspective of buildings.
  • This study identifies and categorizes 35 measures under 11 carbon removal strategies, analyzing their impact and feasibility across various EU Member States.
  • Short-term gains in reducing greenhouse gas emissions can be achieved by improving energy use, using low-carbon materials, and managing space efficiently, while long-term strategies like promoting circularity and renovation are expected to gain traction as supply chains and skill sets evolve.
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The dietary guidelines of Slovenia, '12 Steps to Healthy Eating', were first published in 2000 and revised in 2011. The 'Food Guide Pyramid' was initially published in 2000 and subsequently revised in 2015. 'The Healthy Plate' was first introduced in 2007.

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A Copula-based spatiotemporal probabilistic model for heavy metal pollution incidents in drinking water sources.

Ecotoxicol Environ Saf

November 2024

Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences, Ministry of Ecology and Environment of the People's Republic of China, Nanjing 210042, China. Electronic address:

Water pollution incidents pose a significant threat to the safety of drinking water supplies and directly impact the quality of life of the residents when multiple pollutants contaminate drinking water sources. The majority of drinking water sources in China are derived from rivers and lakes that are often significantly impacted by water pollution incidents. To tackle the internal mechanisms between water quality and quantity, in this study, a Copula-based spatiotemporal probabilistic model for drinking water sources at the watershed scale is proposed.

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Sustainability and circularity assessment of biomass-based energy supply chain.

Heliyon

October 2024

Systems Analysis Unit, IMDEA Energy, Avda. Ramón de La Sagra 3, 28935, Móstoles, Madrid, Spain.

Article Synopsis
  • Climate change and resource limitations necessitate a shift towards more sustainable and circular economic practices in industries, particularly in biomass-based energy supply chains.
  • This study presents a new assessment tool that combines multi-criteria decision-making with life cycle thinking to evaluate the sustainability and circularity of five alternatives in these supply chains.
  • The findings reveal that the extended use of digestate is the most sustainable and circular option, whereas carbon capture for microalgae cultivation is the least effective, highlighting how decision makers' priorities can affect rankings of alternatives.
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Article Synopsis
  • - The implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is struggling because of siloed strategies that prevent a unified approach.
  • - To tackle these issues, the text highlights three key areas: how SDGs interact with each other, modeling these interactions, and using appropriate tools.
  • - By focusing on these interconnected aspects, the aim is to enhance progress on the SDGs and effectively apply the principles of integration and indivisibility.
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Energy burden and mental health: A national study in the United States.

Sci Total Environ

December 2024

Department of Environmental Health Sciences, College of Integrated Health Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Rensselaer, NY, USA. Electronic address:

Article Synopsis
  • Mental health issues in the US have increased over the past decade, linked to energy burdens affecting communities.
  • Research shows that higher energy burdens in specific areas correlate with higher rates of frequent mental distress and diagnosed depression, regardless of other living conditions.
  • The study emphasizes the need for national policies focusing on energy justice to tackle these mental health disparities as energy burden is deemed a crucial social determinant of health.
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Feasible deployment of carbon capture and storage and the requirements of climate targets.

Nat Clim Chang

September 2024

Centre for Climate and Energy Transformation (CET), University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway.

Climate change mitigation requires the large-scale deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS). Recent plans indicate an eight-fold increase in CCS capacity by 2030, yet the feasibility of CCS expansion is debated. Using historical growth of CCS and other policy-driven technologies, we show that if plans double between 2023 and 2025 and their failure rates decrease by half, CCS could reach 0.

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Estimates of global economic damage from climate change assess the effect of annual temperature changes. However, the roles of precipitation, temperature variability and extreme events are not yet known. Here, by combining projections of climate models with empirical dose-response functions translating shifts in temperature means and variability, rainfall patterns and extreme precipitation into economic damage, we show that at +3 C global average losses reach 10% of gross domestic product, with worst effects (up to 17%) in poorer, low-latitude countries.

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Intersecting socio-demographic transformations and warming climates portend increasing worldwide heat exposures and health sequelae. Cooling adaptation via air conditioning (AC) is effective, but energy-intensive and constrained by household-level differences in income and adaptive capacity. Using statistical models trained on a large multi-country household survey dataset (n = 673,215), we project AC adoption and energy use to mid-century at fine spatial resolution worldwide.

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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) employs emission scenarios to explore a range of future climate outcomes but refrains from assigning probabilities to individual scenarios. However, IPCC authors have their own views on the likelihood of different climate outcomes, which are valuable to understand because authors possess both expert insight and considerable influence. Here we report the results of a survey of 211 IPCC authors about the likelihood of four key climate outcomes.

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Dataset: a social accounting matrix for Germany.

BMC Res Notes

September 2024

Institute of Climate and Energy Systems, Jülich Systems Analysis, Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, 52425, Jülich, Germany.

Objectives: The Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) is an extension of Input-Output tables that records macro and meso-economic accounts of a socio-economic system. Its main objective is to provide a comprehensive understanding of the interrelationships among different economic sectors and agents. The SAM can be used for various purposes, including economic analysis, policy evaluation, and economic modelling.

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Climate change is projected to have substantial economic, social, and environmental impacts worldwide. Currently, the leading solutions for hydrogen storage are in salt caverns, and depleted natural gas reservoirs. However, the required geological formations are limited to certain regions.

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Air pollution in India is a foremost environmental risk factor that affects human health. This study first investigates the geographical distribution of ambient and household air pollution (HAP) and then examines the associated mortality risk. Data on fine particulate matter (PM) concentration has been extracted from the Greenhouse Gas Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model.

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Aspirational nitrogen interventions accelerate air pollution abatement and ecosystem protection.

Sci Adv

August 2024

Laboratory for Climate and Ocean-Atmosphere Studies, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.

Although reactive nitrogen (Nr) emissions from food and energy production contribute to multi-dimensional environmental damages, integrated management of Nr is still lacking owing to unclear future mitigation potentials and benefits. Here, we find that by 2050, high-ambition compared to low-ambition N interventions reduce global ammonia and nitrogen oxide emissions by 21 and 22 TgN/a, respectively, equivalent to 40 and 52% of their 2015 levels. This would mitigate population-weighted PM2.

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In this article, we claim that recent developments in climate science and renewable energy should prompt a reframing of debates surrounding climate change mitigation. Taken together, we argue that these developments suggest (1) global climate collapse in this century is a non-negligible risk, (2) mitigation offers substantial benefits to current generations, and (3) mitigation by some can generate social tipping dynamics that could ultimately make renewables cheaper than fossil fuels. We explain how these claims undermine familiar framings of climate change, wherein mitigation is understood as self-sacrifice that individuals and governments must be morally persuaded or incentivized to undertake.

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Under current emission trajectories, temporarily overshooting the Paris global warming limit of 1.5 °C is a distinct possibility. Permanently exceeding this limit would substantially increase the probability of triggering climate tipping elements.

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