Development of traffic and traffic safety: global trends and incidental fluctuations.

In this, and previous related papers, developments of traffic volumes and traffic safety are studied from a system-theoretic point of view. It was proved already that such an approach is effective and leads to new and interesting theoretical facts. Models for the description of long-term developments of traffic volumes and safety were established, and particular relations between both developments were found.

The development of traffic and traffic safety in six developed countries.

Two models are presented, describing the development of traffic and traffic safety. Traffic volumes, measured by the total amount of vehicle kilometers per year, are expected to follow a sigmoid saturation curve over time. The logistic function is used to model this development.

Enforcement or incentives? Promoting safety belt use among military personnel in the Netherlands.

During a nationwide campaign to promote safety belt use among military personnel, a field study was conducted at 12 different military bases in the Netherlands. Amount of enforcement, type of publicity, and incentive strategies were varied among military bases. Observations of safety belt use among servicemen in their personal vehicles were conducted before the campaign, immediately following the campaign, and 3 months later.

Breath alcohol legislation in The Netherlands.

In October 1987 the legislation on driving under the influence of alcohol has been changed thoroughly in The Netherlands. From that date breath analysis was introduced to obtain legal evidence for prosecuting drunken drivers. For financial and logistic reasons a transitional period of two years was allowed which means that from October 1989 breath analysis was completely introduced.

The real number of road traffic accident casualties in The Netherlands: a year-long survey.

Between August 1986 and July 1987 more than 24,000 households, containing nearly 67,000 persons, were surveyed by telephone about traffic injuries during the past three months. Expressed on an annual basis, approximately 430,000 people, or about 1 in 34 of the Dutch population, had suffered some sort of injury in a road accident. The road traffic morbidity was, therefore, 2,942 per 100,000 inhabitants.

Macroscopic models for traffic and traffic safety.

This paper describes models for traffic volumes and traffic safety. These models have a very simple mathematical form and consist of time parameters only. The first model assumes that fatality rates follow a negative exponential function.