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Background: In Sweden, as in other countries, individuals with immigrant backgrounds are disproportionately represented within the incarcerated population. This study examined the association between immigrant background and future incarceration for individuals assessed for illicit substance use severity, while considering their prior incarceration history.

Methods: Using data from Swedish Addiction Severity Index (ASI) assessments linked to register data from Statistics Sweden, we employed Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB) regression models to analyse differences in incarceration histories within five years before and after ASI assessments based on immigrant backgrounds.

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