Prediction of cardiovascular events with traditional risk equations and total plaque area of carotid atherosclerosis: The Arteris Cardiovascular Outcome (ARCO) cohort study.

A large number of cardiovascular events occur in seemingly healthy individuals. Atherosclerosis imaging can improve the outcome and treatment regime of such subjects. We aim to assess the predictive value of atherosclerosis imaging beyond traditional risk calculators in subjects aged 40-65 years.

Extensive carotid atherosclerosis and the diagnostic accuracy of coronary risk calculators.

Preventive therapy in primary care is guided by risk thresholds for future cardiovascular events. We aimed to assess whether the sensitivity of various risk calculators for the detection of subclinical carotid atherosclerosis (TPA80) could be improved by lowering risk thresholds in younger age groups. We compared sensitivity, specificity, and discriminatory performance of SCORE, SCORE-HDL, PROCAM, AGLA, FRAM and PCE coronary risk calculators to detect total plaque area > 80 mm2 (TPA80), a coronary risk equivalent, in age groups 40-55, 56-65, 66-75 from Germany (DE,  = 2942) and Switzerland (CH,  = 2202) during the years 2002 to 2016.

Arterial age as a substitute for chronological age in the AGLA risk function could improve coronary risk prediction.

Principles: As a result of the relatively low sensitivity of coronary risk charts, such as the Swiss coronary risk calculator (Arbeitsgruppe Lipide und Atherosklerose, AGLA), for detecting subjects with future myocardial infarction, the performance of arterial age (aa) as a surrogate marker for chronological age (ca) was tested.

Methods: In a practice based sample, burden of carotid plaque was obtained with ultrasound, using total plaque area (TPA). In this derivation cohort, sex-specific 5-year groups of mean TPA were calculated in subjects aged between 35 and 79 years.