Using Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions and High Isolation of Asymptomatic Carriers to Contain the Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Nursing Homes.

More than 40% of the deaths recorded in the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic were linked to nursing homes. Not only are the residents of long-term care facilities (LTCFs) typically older and more susceptible to endemic infections, the facilities' high degree of connection to wider communities makes them especially vulnerable to local COVID-19 outbreaks. In 2008, in the wake of the SARS-CoV-1 and MERS epidemics and anticipating an influenza pandemic, we created a stochastic compartmental model to evaluate the deployment of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in LTCFs during influenza epidemics.

The age distribution of mortality due to influenza: pandemic and peri-pandemic.

Background: Pandemic influenza is said to 'shift mortality' to younger age groups; but also to spare a subpopulation of the elderly population. Does one of these effects dominate? Might this have important ramifications?

Methods: We estimated age-specific excess mortality rates for all-years for which data were available in the 20th century for Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the UK, and the USA for people older than 44 years of age. We modeled variation with age, and standardized estimates to allow direct comparison across age groups and countries.

Pandemic mitigation: Bringing it home.

In the US, national, regional and even institutional plans for ameliorating the effects of pandemic influenza focus on stockpiling antiviral medications, early production and distribution of vaccine, mass and personal social distancing, and a number of personal hygiene activities. Essential personnel are the first scheduled to receive preventive and therapeutic pharmaceuticals, followed by high risk groups, the largest of which are the elderly. Specific recommendations for protection embody a bunker mentality with a time horizon of two weeks, emulating preparation for a natural disaster.

Does Glycosylation as a modifier of Original Antigenic Sin explain the case age distribution and unusual toxicity in pandemic novel H1N1 influenza?

Background: A pandemic novel H1N1 swine-origin influenza virus has emerged. Most recently the World Health Organization has announced that in a country-dependent fashion, up to 15% of cases may require hospitalization, often including respiratory support. It is now clear that healthy children and young adults are disproportionately affected, most unusually among those with severe respiratory disease without underlying conditions.

Preparing for the next influenza pandemic: lessons from multinational data.

Background: In the past decade, avian influenza has made several incursions of increasing scope and virulence into humans. The likelihood of another pandemic is increasing with time. In work recently published, influenza was found to be the principal cause of the increase in mortality in the United States during the winter months.

Influenza and the winter increase in mortality in the United States, 1959-1999.

In economically developed countries, mortality increases distinctly during winter. Many causes have been suggested, including light-dark cycles, temperature/weather, and infectious agents. The authors analyzed monthly mortality in the United States during the period 1959-1999 for four major disease classes.