A Full-Scale Agent-Based Model to Hypothetically Explore the Impact of Lockdown, Social Distancing, and Vaccination During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Lombardy, Italy: Model Development.

Background: The COVID-19 outbreak, an event of global concern, has provided scientists the opportunity to use mathematical modeling to run simulations and test theories about the pandemic.

Objective: The aim of this study was to propose a full-scale individual-based model of the COVID-19 outbreak in Lombardy, Italy, to test various scenarios pertaining to the pandemic and achieve novel performance metrics.

Methods: The model was designed to simulate all 10 million inhabitants of Lombardy person by person via a simple agent-based approach using a commercial computer.