Predicting insect outbreaks using machine learning: A mountain pine beetle case study.

Planning forest management relies on predicting insect outbreaks such as mountain pine beetle, particularly in the intermediate-term future, e.g., 5-year.

Demographic responses to climate change in a threatened Arctic species.

The Arctic is undergoing rapid and accelerating change in response to global warming, altering biodiversity patterns, and ecosystem function across the region. For Arctic endemic species, our understanding of the consequences of such change remains limited. Spectacled eiders (), a large Arctic sea duck, use remote regions in the Bering Sea, Arctic Russia, and Alaska throughout the annual cycle making it difficult to conduct comprehensive surveys or demographic studies.

No effect of passive integrated transponder tagging method on survival or body condition in a northern population of Black-capped Chickadees ().

Passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags allow a range of individual-level data to be collected passively and have become a commonly used technology in many avian studies. Although the potential adverse effects of PIT tags have been evaluated in several species, explicit investigations of their impacts on small (<12 g) birds are limited. This is important, because it is reasonable to expect that smaller birds could be impacted more strongly by application of PIT tags.

Determinants and long-term costs of early reproduction in males of a long-lived polygynous mammal.

In long-lived polygynous species, male reproductive success is often monopolized by a few mature dominant individuals. Young males are generally too small to be dominant and may employ alternative tactics; however, little is known about the determinants of reproductive success for young males. Understanding the causes and consequences of variability in early reproductive success may be crucial to assess the strength of sexual selection and possible long-term trade-offs among life-history traits.

Online but not remote: Adapting field-based ecology laboratories for online learning.

Teaching ecology effectively and experientially has become more challenging for at least two reasons today. Most experiences of our students are urban, and we now face the near immediate and continuing need to deliver courses (either partially or wholly) online because of COVID-19. Therefore, providing a learning experience that connects students to their environment within an ecological framework remains crucial and perhaps therapeutic to mental health.

Among-individual diet variation within a lake trout ecotype: Lack of stability of niche use.

In a polyphenic species, differences in resource use are expected among ecotypes, and homogeneity in resource use is expected within an ecotype. Yet, using a broad resource spectrum has been identified as a strategy for fishes living in unproductive northern environments, where food is patchily distributed and ephemeral. We investigated whether specialization of trophic resources by individuals occurred within the generalist piscivore ecotype of lake trout from Great Bear Lake, Canada, reflective of a form of diversity.

Quantity-quality trade-offs revealed using a multiscale test of herbivore resource selection on elemental landscapes.

Herbivores consider the variation of forage qualities (nutritional content and digestibility) as well as quantities (biomass) when foraging. Such selection patterns may change based on the scale of foraging, particularly in the case of ungulates that forage at many scales.To test selection for quality and quantity in free-ranging herbivores across scales, however, we must first develop landscape-wide quantitative estimates of both forage quantity and quality.

Migratory hosts can maintain the high-dose/refuge effect in a structured host-parasite system: The case of sea lice and salmon.

Migration can reduce parasite burdens in migratory hosts, but it connects populations and can drive disease dynamics in domestic species. Farmed salmon are infested by sea louse parasites, often carried by migratory wild salmonids, resulting in a costly problem for industry and risk to wild populations when farms amplify louse numbers. Chemical treatment can control lice, but resistance has evolved in many salmon-farming regions.

Room without a view-Den excavation in relation to body size in brown bears.

Hibernation is an adaptive strategy to survive harsh winter conditions and food shortage. The use of well-insulated winter dens helps animals minimize energy loss during hibernation. Brown bears () commonly use excavated dens for hibernation.

Predictor species: Improving assessments of rare species occurrence by modeling environmental co-responses.

Designing an effective conservation strategy requires understanding where rare species are located. Because rare species can be difficult to find, ecologists often identify other species called conservation surrogates that can help inform the distribution of rare species. Species distribution models typically rely on environmental data when predicting the occurrence of species, neglecting the effect of species' co-occurrences and biotic interactions.

The FiberTAG project: Tagging dietary fibre intake by measuring biomarkers related to the gut microbiota and their interest for health.

The scientific rationale for dietary fibre intake recommendations comes from the recognition of their benefits for health based on studies first published many years ago. It remains unclear which are the key physiological effects generated by dietary fibre in view of the diversity of the food components considered as dietary fibre, of the relevance of their classification (soluble and insoluble) and from the recent discoveries putting forward their interactions with the gut microbiota. The project ( 2017-2020 https://www.

Density-dependent space use affects interpretation of camera trap detection rates.

Camera traps (CTs) are an increasingly popular tool for wildlife survey and monitoring. Estimating relative abundance in unmarked species is often done using detection rate as an index of relative abundance, which assumes that detection rate has a positive linear relationship with true abundance. This assumption may be violated if movement behavior varies with density, but the degree to which movement behavior is density-dependent across taxa is unclear.

Functional response of wolves to human development across boreal North America.

Aim: The influence of humans on large carnivores, including wolves, is a worldwide conservation concern. In addition, human-caused changes in carnivore density and distribution might have impacts on prey and, indirectly, on vegetation. We therefore tested wolf responses to infrastructure related to natural resource development (i.

Territory surveillance and prey management: Wolves keep track of space and time.

Identifying behavioral mechanisms that underlie observed movement patterns is difficult when animals employ sophisticated cognitive-based strategies. Such strategies may arise when timing of return visits is important, for instance to allow for resource renewal or territorial patrolling. We fitted spatially explicit random-walk models to GPS movement data of six wolves (; Linnaeus, 1758) from Alberta, Canada to investigate the importance of the following: (1) territorial surveillance likely related to renewal of scent marks along territorial edges, to reduce intraspecific risk among packs, and (2) delay in return to recently hunted areas, which may be related to anti-predator responses of prey under varying prey densities.

Phylogeography of a migratory songbird across its Canadian breeding range: Implications for conservation units.

The objectives of this study were to describe and evaluate potential drivers of genetic structure in Canadian breeding populations of the Ovenbird, . We performed genetic analyses on feather samples of individuals from six study sites using nuclear microsatellites. We also assessed species identity and population genetic structure of quill mites (Acariformes, Syringophilidae).

Relative Selection Strength: Quantifying effect size in habitat- and step-selection inference.

Habitat-selection analysis lacks an appropriate measure of the ecological significance of the statistical estimates-a practical interpretation of the magnitude of the selection coefficients. There is a need for a standard approach that allows relating the strength of selection to a change in habitat conditions across space, a quantification of the estimated effect size that can be compared both within and across studies. We offer a solution, based on the epidemiological risk ratio, which we term the relative selection strength (RSS).

An approach to incorporate individual personality in modeling fish dispersal across in-stream barriers.

Animal personalities are an important factor that affects the dispersal of animals. In the context of aquatic species, dispersal modeling needs to consider that most freshwater ecosystems are highly fragmented by barriers reducing longitudinal connectivity. Previous research has incorporated such barriers into dispersal models under the neutral assumption that all migrating animals attempt to ascend at all times.

The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project.

The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.

Surviving winter: Food, but not habitat structure, prevents crashes in cyclic vole populations.

Vole population cycles are a major force driving boreal ecosystem dynamics in northwestern Eurasia. However, our understanding of the impact of winter on these cycles is increasingly uncertain, especially because climate change is affecting snow predictability, quality, and abundance. We examined the role of winter weather and snow conditions, the lack of suitable habitat structure during freeze-thaw periods, and the lack of sufficient food as potential causes for winter population crashes.

Assessing polar bear () population structure in the Hudson Bay region using SNPs.

Defining subpopulations using genetics has traditionally used data from microsatellite markers to investigate population structure; however, single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have emerged as a tool for detection of fine-scale structure. In Hudson Bay, Canada, three polar bear () subpopulations (Foxe Basin (FB), Southern Hudson Bay (SH), and Western Hudson Bay (WH)) have been delineated based on mark-recapture studies, radiotelemetry and satellite telemetry, return of marked animals in the subsistence harvest, and population genetics using microsatellites. We used SNPs to detect fine-scale population structure in polar bears from the Hudson Bay region and compared our results to the current designations using 414 individuals genotyped at 2,603 SNPs.

Multiple generalist morphs of Lake Trout: Avoiding constraints on the evolution of intraspecific divergence?

A generalist strategy, as an adaptation to environmental heterogeneity, is common in Arctic freshwater systems, often accompanied, however, by intraspecific divergence that promotes specialization in niche use. To better understand how resources may be partitioned in a northern system that supports intraspecific diversity of Lake Trout, trophic niches were compared among four shallow-water morphotypes in Great Bear Lake (N65 56' 39″, W120 50' 59″). Bayesian mixing model analyses of stable isotopes of carbon and nitrogen were conducted on adult Lake Trout.

Spatial pattern of invasion and the evolutionary responses of native plant species.

Invasive plant species can have a strong negative impact on the resident native species, likely imposing new selective pressures on them. Altered selective pressures may result in evolutionary changes in some native species, reducing competitive exclusion and allowing for coexistence with the invader. Native genotypes that are able to coexist with strong invaders may represent a valuable resource for management efforts.

Intense selective hunting leads to artificial evolution in horn size.

The potential for selective harvests to induce rapid evolutionary change is an important question for conservation and evolutionary biology, with numerous biological, social and economic implications. We analyze 39 years of phenotypic data on horn size in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) subject to intense trophy hunting for 23 years, after which harvests nearly ceased. Our analyses revealed a significant decline in genetic value for horn length of rams, consistent with an evolutionary response to artificial selection on this trait.

A tough egg to crack: recreational boats as vectors for invasive goby eggs and transdisciplinary management approaches.

Non-native invasive species are a major threat to biodiversity, especially in freshwater ecosystems. Freshwater ecosystems are naturally rather isolated from one another. Nonetheless, invasive species often spread rapidly across water sheds.