Redesigning the serological surveillance program for notifiable avian influenza in Belgian professional poultry holdings.

This study was aimed at redesigning the Belgian active surveillance program for domestic birds in professional poultry holdings based on a risk analysis approach. A stochastic quantitative analysis, combining all data sources, was run to obtain sensitivity estimates for the detection of an infected bird in the different risk groups identified. An optimal number of holdings for each risk group was then estimated on the basis of the different sensitivities obtained.

Expert judgement in a risk assessment model for Salmonella spp. in pork: the performance of different weighting schemes.

A structured expert judgement study was carried out in order to obtain input parameters for a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model. This model aimed to estimate the risk of human Salmonella infections associated with the consumption of minced pork meat. Judgements of 11 experts were used to derive subjective probability density functions (PDFs) to quantify the uncertainty on the model input parameters.

NUSAP method for evaluating the data quality in a quantitative microbial risk assessment model for Salmonella in the pork production chain.

The numeral unit spread assessment pedigree (NUSAP) system was implemented to evaluate the quality of input parameters in a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model for Salmonella spp. in minced pork meat. The input parameters were grouped according to four successive exposure pathways: (1) primary production (2) transport, holding, and slaughterhouse, (3) postprocessing, distribution, and storage, and (4) preparation and consumption.

Risk analysis of the spread of classical swine fever virus through "neighbourhood infections" for different regions in Belgium.

Risk factors associated with the occurrence of "neighbourhood infections" [Epidemiology of classical swine fever. In: Truszczynski, M. (Ed.