Arctic sea-ice loss is projected to lead to more frequent strong El Niño events.

Arctic sea ice has decreased substantially and is projected to reach a seasonally ice-free state in the coming decades. Little is known about whether dwindling Arctic sea ice is capable of influencing the occurrence of strong El Niño, a prominent mode of climate variability with global impacts. Based on time slice coupled model experiments, here we show that no significant change in the occurrence of strong El Niño is found in response to moderate Arctic sea-ice loss that is consistent with satellite observations to date.

Towards reliable Arctic sea ice prediction using multivariate data assimilation.

Rapid declines in Arctic sea ice have captured attention and pose significant challenges to a variety of stakeholders. There is a rising demand for Arctic sea ice prediction at daily to seasonal time scales, which is partly a sea ice initial condition problem. Thus, a multivariate data assimilation that integrates sea ice observations to generate realistic and skillful model initialization is needed to improve predictive skill of Arctic sea ice.

Prevented mortality and greenhouse gas emissions from historical and projected nuclear power.

In the aftermath of the March 2011 accident at Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, the future contribution of nuclear power to the global energy supply has become somewhat uncertain. Because nuclear power is an abundant, low-carbon source of base-load power, it could make a large contribution to mitigation of global climate change and air pollution. Using historical production data, we calculate that global nuclear power has prevented an average of 1.

Options for near-term phaseout of CO(2) emissions from coal use in the United States.

The global climate problem becomes tractable if CO(2) emissions from coal use are phased out rapidly and emissions from unconventional fossil fuels (e.g., oil shale and tar sands) are prohibited.

Climate change and trace gases.

Palaeoclimate data show that the Earth's climate is remarkably sensitive to global forcings. Positive feedbacks predominate. This allows the entire planet to be whipsawed between climate states.

Global temperature change.

Global surface temperature has increased approximately 0.2 degrees C per decade in the past 30 years, similar to the warming rate predicted in the 1980s in initial global climate model simulations with transient greenhouse gas changes. Warming is larger in the Western Equatorial Pacific than in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific over the past century, and we suggest that the increased West-East temperature gradient may have increased the likelihood of strong El Niños, such as those of 1983 and 1998.

Greenhouse gas growth rates.

We posit that feasible reversal of the growth of atmospheric CH(4) and other trace gases would provide a vital contribution toward averting dangerous anthropogenic interference with global climate. Such trace gas reductions may allow stabilization of atmospheric CO(2) at an achievable level of anthropogenic CO(2) emissions, even if the added global warming constituting dangerous anthropogenic interference is as small as 1 degrees C. A 1 degrees C limit on global warming, with canonical climate sensitivity, requires peak CO(2) approximately 440 ppm if further non-CO(2) forcing is +0.

Urban biosphere and society: partnership of cities--introduction.

This paper reports on issues of conservation, equitable use of resources, and the improvement of quality of life for all persons living in densely populated cites. Case studies are presented that examine UNESCO's concept of biosphere reserve, demonstrating the elasticity and usefulness of the concept as a way to promote global sustainability and governance on local, regional and global levels.

Gene family phylogenetics: tracing protein evolution on trees.

How have proteins taken on the remarkable diversity of biochemical and physiological functions necessary to create and maintain complex organisms? The majority of proteins are organized hierarchically into families and superfamilies, reflecting an ancient and continuing process of gene duplication and divergence. The techniques of molecular phylogenetics, developed to recover the nested hierarchy of taxa from character information in their gene sequences, can also reconstruct the evolutionary relationships among genes and provide a conceptual foundation for comparative evolutionary analysis of proteins and their functions. In this review, I outline the application of phylogenetic approaches to issues in gene family studies, beginning with the inference of phylogeny and the assessment of the two types of homology by which genes in a family can be related: orthology (common descent from a cladogenetic event) and paralogy (common descent from a gene duplication event).

Global warming in the twenty-first century: an alternative scenario.

A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven mainly by non-CO(2) greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as chlorofluorocarbons, CH(4), and N(2)O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO(2) and aerosols, the positive and negative climate forcings of which are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO(2) GHGs has declined in the past decade.