The interplay between the urban development of Rome (Italy) and the Tiber River floods: A review of two millennia of socio-hydrological history.

The urban development of Rome (Italy) has been intertwined with the dynamics of the Tiber River since its foundation. In this review paper, we analyse more than 2500 years of flood history and urban development to untangle the dynamics of flood risk and assess the resulting socio-hydrological phenomena. Until the 1800s, urban dwellers living in the riparian areas of the Tiber River were accustomed to frequent flooding.

Global population datasets overestimate flood exposure in Sweden.

Accurate population data is crucial for assessing exposure in disaster risk assessments. In recent years, there has been a significant increase in the development of spatially gridded population datasets. Despite these datasets often using similar input data to derive population figures, notable differences arise when comparing them with direct ground-level observations.

Deep crustal assimilation during the 2021 Fagradalsfjall Fires, Iceland.

Active basaltic eruptions enable time-series analysis of geochemical and geophysical properties, providing constraints on mantle composition and eruption processes. The continuing Fagradalsfjall and Sundhnúkur fires on Iceland's Reykjanes Peninsula, beginning in 2021, enable such an approach. Earliest lavas of this volcanic episode have been interpreted to exclusively reflect a change from shallow to deeper mantle source processes.

Pathways from research to sustainable development: Insights from ten research projects in sustainability and resilience.

Drawing on collective experience from ten collaborative research projects focused on the Global South, we identify three major challenges that impede the translation of research on sustainability and resilience into better-informed choices by individuals and policy-makers that in turn can support transformation to a sustainable future. The three challenges comprise: (i) converting knowledge produced during research projects into successful knowledge application; (ii) scaling up knowledge in time when research projects are short-term and potential impacts are long-term; and (iii) scaling up knowledge across space, from local research sites to larger-scale or even global impact. Some potential pathways for funding agencies to overcome these challenges include providing targeted prolonged funding for dissemination and outreach, and facilitating collaboration and coordination across different sites, research teams, and partner organizations.

Statistical performance of local attractor dimension estimators in non-Axiom A dynamical systems.

We investigate various estimators based on extreme value theory (EVT) for determining the local fractal dimension of chaotic dynamical systems. In the limit of an infinitely long time series of an ergodic system, the average of the local fractal dimension is the system's global attractor dimension. The latter is an important quantity that relates to the number of effective degrees of freedom of the underlying dynamical system, and its estimation has been a central topic in the dynamical systems literature since the 1980s.

Public risk perception of air pollution in the general population of Italy and Sweden during the COVID-19 pandemic: Environmental and socio-demographic drivers.

Air pollution is an important anthropogenic hazard due to its effect on human health and the environment. Understanding how the population perceives the risk associated with air pollution is a crucial aspect to inform future policies and communication strategies. The aim of this study is to examine the association between air pollution concentrations and public risk perception of air pollution, also exploring socio-demographic patterns in the general population of Italy and Sweden.

Quantifying the role of antecedent Southwestern Indian Ocean capacitance on the summer monsoon rainfall variability over homogeneous regions of India.

The role of ocean variability is at a focal point in improving the weather and climate forecasts at different spatial and temporal scales. We study the effect of antecedent southwestern Indian Ocean mean sea level anomaly (MSLA) and sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) as a proxy to upper ocean heat capacitance on all India summer monsoon rainfall (AISMR) during 1993-2019. SSTA and MSLA over the southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO) have been influenced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the impact of ENSO-induced SWIO variability was low on rainfall variability over several homogeneous regions.

Drought hazards and stakeholder perception: Unraveling the interlinkages between drought severity, perceived impacts, preparedness, and management.

The future risk for droughts and water shortages calls for substantial efforts by authorities to adapt at local levels. Understanding their perception of drought hazards, risk and vulnerability can help to identify drivers of and barriers to drought risk planning and management in a changing climate at the local level. This paper presents a novel interdisciplinary drought case study in Sweden that integrates soft data from a nationwide survey among more than 100 local practitioners and hard data based on hydrological measurements to provide a holistic assessment of the links between drought severity and the perceived levels of drought severity, impacts, preparedness, and management for two consecutive drought events.

Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and impacts of climate extremes in Europe.

Diagnosing dynamical changes in the climate system, such as those in atmospheric circulation patterns, remains challenging. Here, we study 1950 to 2021 trends in the frequency of occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns over the North Atlantic. Roughly 7% of atmospheric circulation patterns display significant occurrence trends, yet they have major impacts on surface climate.

Wet Bulb Globe Temperature: Indicating Extreme Heat Risk on a Global Grid.

The Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) is an international standard heat index used by the health, industrial, sports, and climate sectors to assess thermal comfort during heat extremes. Observations of its components, the globe and the wet bulb temperature (WBT), are however sparse. Therefore WBGT is difficult to derive, making it common to rely on approximations, such as the ones developed by Liljegren et al.

Deep magma storage during the 2021 La Palma eruption.

The 2021 La Palma eruption provided an unpreceded opportunity to test the relationship between earthquake hypocenters and the location of magma reservoirs. We performed density measurements on CO-rich fluid inclusions (FIs) hosted in olivine crystals that are highly sensitive to pressure via calibrated Raman spectroscopy. This technique can revolutionize our knowledge of magma storage and transport during an ongoing eruption, given that it can produce precise magma storage depth constraints in near real time with minimal sample preparation.

Dynamical footprints of hurricanes in the tropical dynamics.

Hurricanes-and more broadly tropical cyclones-are high-impact weather phenomena whose adverse socio-economic and ecosystem impacts affect a considerable part of the global population. Despite our reasonably robust meteorological understanding of tropical cyclones, we still face outstanding challenges for their numerical simulations. Consequently, future changes in the frequency of occurrence and intensity of tropical cyclones are still debated.

Country differences in the cross-sectional associations between smoking and depressive symptoms in adolescence.

Background: The aim of the present study was to compare the cross-sectional association between smoking and depressive symptoms among adolescents between Sweden and Italy, two countries historically characterized by different norms about tobacco use and different tobacco control efforts.

Methods: A cross-sectional study including 3283 adolescents 15-16 years of age participating in the Swedish KUPOL study and 1947 same-age adolescents from the Italian BE-TEEN study. Current smoking was defined as any smoking in the past 30 days.

The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management.

Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally, yet their impacts are still increasing. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced.

The life cycle of meridional heat flux peaks.

Covariance between meridional wind and air temperature in the lower troposphere quantifies the poleward flux of dry static energy in the atmosphere; in the midlatitudes, this is primarily realised by baroclinic weather systems. It is shown that strong covariance between temperature and meridional wind results from both enhanced correlation and enhanced variance, and that the two evolve according to a distinct temporal structure akin to a life-cycle. Starting from a state of low correlation and variance, there is first a gradual build-up to modal growth at constant, high correlation, followed by a rapid decay at relatively low correlation values.

Drought and society: Scientific progress, blind spots, and future prospects.

Human activities have increasingly intensified the severity, frequency, and negative impacts of droughts in several regions across the world. This trend has led to broader scientific conceptualizations of drought risk that account for human actions and their interplays with natural systems. This review focuses on physical and engineering sciences to examine the way and extent to which these disciplines account for social processes in relation to the production and distribution of drought risk.

Diverse mantle components with invariant oxygen isotopes in the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption, Iceland.

The basalts of the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption were the first erupted on the Reykjanes Peninsula in 781 years and offer a unique opportunity to determine the composition of the mantle underlying Iceland, in particular its oxygen isotope composition (δO values). The basalts show compositional variations in Zr/Y, Nb/Zr and Nb/Y values that span roughly half of the previously described range for Icelandic basaltic magmas and signal involvement of Icelandic plume (OIB) and Enriched Mid-Ocean Ridge Basalt (EMORB) in magma genesis. Here we show that Fagradalsfjall δO values are invariable (mean δO = 5.

Exploring disaster impacts on adaptation actions in 549 cities worldwide.

Whether disasters influence adaptation actions in cities is contested. Yet, the extant knowledge base primarily consists of single or small-N case studies, so there is no global overview of the evidence on disaster impacts and adaptation. Here, we use regression analysis to explore the effects of disaster frequency and severity on four adaptation action types in 549 cities.

Epidemic risk perceptions in Italy and Sweden driven by authority responses to COVID-19.

Understanding public risk perception is an essential step to develop effective measures reducing the spread of disease outbreaks. Here we compare epidemic risk perceptions during two different periods of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy and Sweden. To this end, we analyzed the results of two nationwide surveys carried out in both countries in two periods characterized by different infection rates: August (N = 4154) and November 2020 (N = 4168).

COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in Sweden and Italy: The role of trust in authorities.

Background: The success of vaccination campaigns against COVID-19 infection is vital for moving from a COVID-19 pandemic to an endemic scenario. We aimed to unravel the influence of the risk perception of epidemics along with individual and contextual factors on adherence to COVID-19 vaccination campaigns in Italy and Sweden.

Methods: We compared the results of two nationwide surveys carried out in August 2021 across four domains of epidemic risk perception: perceived likelihood, perceived impact on the individual and perceived individual and authority knowledge.

The Trump Administration and the COVID-19 crisis: Exploring the warning-response problems and missed opportunities of a public health emergency.

This article examines the Trump Administration's inability to mount a timely and effective response to the COVID-19 outbreak, despite ample warning. Through an empirical exploration guided by three explanatory perspectives-psychological, bureau-organizational, and agenda-political-developed from the strategic surprise, public administration, and crisis management literature, the authors seek to shed light on the mechanisms that contributed to the underestimation of the coronavirus threat by the Trump Administration and the slow and mismanaged federal response. The analysis highlights the extent to which the factors identified by previous studies of policy surprise and failure in other security domains are relevant for health security.

Do the Benefits of School Closure Outweigh Its Costs?

School closure has been a common response to COVID-19. Yet, its implementation has hardly ever been based on rigorous analysis of its costs and benefits. We aim to first illustrate the unintended consequences and side effects of school closure, and then discuss the policy and research implications.

Evaluation of the ERA5 reanalysis-based Universal Thermal Climate Index on mortality data in Europe.

Air temperature has been the most commonly used exposure metric in assessing relationships between thermal stress and mortality. Lack of the high-quality meteorological station data necessary to adequately characterize the thermal environment has been one of the main limitations for the use of more complex thermal indices. Global climate reanalyses may provide an ideal platform to overcome this limitation and define complex heat and cold stress conditions anywhere in the world.