Rainfall manipulation experiments as simulated by terrestrial biosphere models: Where do we stand?

Changes in rainfall amounts and patterns have been observed and are expected to continue in the near future with potentially significant ecological and societal consequences. Modelling vegetation responses to changes in rainfall is thus crucial to project water and carbon cycles in the future. In this study, we present the results of a new model-data intercomparison project, where we tested the ability of 10 terrestrial biosphere models to reproduce the observed sensitivity of ecosystem productivity to rainfall changes at 10 sites across the globe, in nine of which, rainfall exclusion and/or irrigation experiments had been performed.

Losses, inefficiencies and waste in the global food system.

Losses at every stage in the food system influence the extent to which nutritional requirements of a growing global population can be sustainably met. Inefficiencies and losses in agricultural production and consumer behaviour all play a role. This paper aims to understand better the magnitude of different losses and to provide insights into how these influence overall food system efficiency.

Variability in sea ice cover and climate elicit sex specific responses in an Antarctic predator.

Contrasting regional changes in Southern Ocean sea ice have occurred over the last 30 years with distinct regional effects on ecosystem structure and function. Quantifying how Antarctic predators respond to such changes provides the context for predicting how climate variability/change will affect these assemblages into the future. Over an 11-year time-series, we examine how inter-annual variability in sea ice concentration and advance affect the foraging behaviour of a top Antarctic predator, the southern elephant seal.

Reconciling reported and unreported HFC emissions with atmospheric observations.

We infer global and regional emissions of five of the most abundant hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) using atmospheric measurements from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment and the National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan, networks. We find that the total CO2-equivalent emissions of the five HFCs from countries that are required to provide detailed, annual reports to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) increased from 198 (175-221) Tg-CO2-eq ⋅ y(-1) in 2007 to 275 (246-304) Tg-CO2-eq ⋅ y(-1) in 2012. These global warming potential-weighted aggregated emissions agree well with those reported to the UNFCCC throughout this period and indicate that the gap between reported emissions and global HFC emissions derived from atmospheric trends is almost entirely due to emissions from nonreporting countries.

Skilful multi-year predictions of tropical trans-basin climate variability.

Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies influence the atmospheric circulation, impacting climate far beyond the tropics. The predictability of the corresponding atmospheric signals is typically limited to less than 1 year lead time. Here we present observational and modelling evidence for multi-year predictability of coherent trans-basin climate variations that are characterized by a zonal seesaw in tropical sea surface temperature and sea-level pressure between the Pacific and the other two ocean basins.

Observational evidence for interhemispheric hydroxyl-radical parity.

The hydroxyl radical (OH) is a key oxidant involved in the removal of air pollutants and greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. The ratio of Northern Hemispheric to Southern Hemispheric (NH/SH) OH concentration is important for our understanding of emission estimates of atmospheric species such as nitrogen oxides and methane. It remains poorly constrained, however, with a range of estimates from 0.

Influence of monsoons on atmospheric CO2 spatial variability and ground-based monitoring over India.

This study examines the role of Asian monsoons on transport and spatial variability of atmospheric CO2 over the Indian subcontinent, using transport modeling tools and available surface observations from two atmospheric CO2 monitoring sites Sinhagad (SNG) and Cape Rama (CRI) in the western part of peninsular India. The regional source contributions to these sites arise from the horizontal flow in conduits within the planetary boundary layer. Greater CO2 variability, greater than 15 ppm, is observed during winter, while it is reduced nearly by half during summer.

Scaling laws for parametrizations of subgrid interactions in simulations of oceanic circulations.

Parametrizations of the subgrid eddy-eddy and eddy-meanfield interactions are developed for the simulation of baroclinic ocean circulations representative of an idealized Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Benchmark simulations are generated using a spectral spherical harmonic quasi-geostrophic model with maximum truncation wavenumber of T=504, which is equivalent to a resolution of 0.24° globally.

Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the global yields of major crops.

The monitoring and prediction of climate-induced variations in crop yields, production and export prices in major food-producing regions have become important to enable national governments in import-dependent countries to ensure supplies of affordable food for consumers. Although the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) often affects seasonal temperature and precipitation, and thus crop yields in many regions, the overall impacts of ENSO on global yields are uncertain. Here we present a global map of the impacts of ENSO on the yields of major crops and quantify its impacts on their global-mean yield anomalies.

Robust twenty-first-century projections of El Niño and related precipitation variability.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives substantial variability in rainfall, severe weather, agricultural production, ecosystems and disease in many parts of the world. Given that further human-forced changes in the Earth's climate system seem inevitable, the possibility exists that the character of ENSO and its impacts might change over the coming century. Although this issue has been investigated many times during the past 20 years, there is very little consensus on future changes in ENSO, apart from an expectation that ENSO will continue to be a dominant source of year-to-year variability.

Phenological changes in the southern hemisphere.

Current evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is substantially biased towards northern hemisphere temperate regions. Given regional differences in climate change, shifts in phenology will not be uniform across the globe, and conclusions drawn from temperate systems in the northern hemisphere might not be applicable to other regions on the planet. We conduct the largest meta-analysis to date of phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere species, assessing 1208 long-term datasets from 89 studies on 347 species.

An ICP-MS procedure to determine Cd, Co, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn in oceanic waters using in-line flow-injection with solid-phase extraction for preconcentration.

An automated procedure including both in-line preconcentration and multi-element determination by an inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer (ICP-MS) has been developed for the determination of Cd, Co, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn in open-ocean samples. The method relies on flow injection of the sample through a minicolumn of chelating (iminodiacetate) sorbent to preconcentrate the trace metals, while simultaneously eliminating the major cations and anions of seawater. The effectiveness of this step is tested and reliability in results are secured with a rigorous process of quality assurance comprising 36 calibration and reference samples in a run for analysis of 24 oceanic seawaters in a 6-h program.

Climate as a driver of phenological change in southern seabirds.

Seabirds are one of the most threatened groups of birds globally and, overall, their conservation status is deteriorating rapidly. Southern hemisphere countries are over-represented in the number of species of conservation concern yet long-term phenological data on seabirds in the southern hemisphere is limited. A better understanding of the implications of changes in the marine and terrestrial environments to seabird species is required in order to improve their management and conservation status.

Continental scale analysis of bird migration timing: influences of climate and life history traits-a generalized mixture model clustering and discriminant approach.

There is substantial evidence of climate-related shifts to the timing of avian migration. Although spring arrival has generally advanced, variable species responses and geographical biases in data collection make it difficult to generalise patterns. We advance previous studies by using novel multivariate statistical techniques to explore complex relationships between phenological trends, climate indices and species traits.

Ocean salinities reveal strong global water cycle intensification during 1950 to 2000.

Fundamental thermodynamics and climate models suggest that dry regions will become drier and wet regions will become wetter in response to warming. Efforts to detect this long-term response in sparse surface observations of rainfall and evaporation remain ambiguous. We show that ocean salinity patterns express an identifiable fingerprint of an intensifying water cycle.

Saccharides enhance iron bioavailability to Southern Ocean phytoplankton.

Iron limits primary productivity in vast regions of the ocean. Given that marine phytoplankton contribute up to 40% of global biological carbon fixation, it is important to understand what parameters control the availability of iron (iron bioavailability) to these organisms. Most studies on iron bioavailability have focused on the role of siderophores; however, eukaryotic phytoplankton do not produce or release siderophores.

Life cycle assessment of biodiesel production from microalgae in ponds.

This paper analyses the potential environmental impacts and economic viability of producing biodiesel from microalgae grown in ponds. A comparative Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) study of a notional production system designed for Australian conditions was conducted to compare biodiesel production from algae (with three different scenarios for carbon dioxide supplementation and two different production rates) with canola and ULS (ultra-low sulfur) diesel. Comparisons of GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions (g CO(2)-e/tkm) and costs (¢/tkm) are given.

Stochastic subgrid-scale modelling for non-equilibrium geophysical flows.

Methods motivated by non-equilibrium statistical mechanics of turbulence are applied to solve an important practical problem in geophysical fluid dynamics, namely the parametrization of subgrid-scale eddies needed in large-eddy simulations (LESs). A direct stochastic modelling scheme that is closely related to techniques based on statistical closure theories, but which is more generally applicable to complex models, is employed. Here, we parametrize the effects of baroclinically unstable subgrid-scale eddies in idealized flows with broad similarities to the Antarctic Circumpolar Current of the Southern Ocean.

The Australian Air Quality Forecasting System: the use of green scenarios of motor vehicle usage as an educational tool.

The Australian Air Quality Forecasting System (AAQFS) is one of several newly emerging, high-resolution, numerical air quality forecasting systems. The system is briefly described. A public education application of the air quality impact of motor vehicle usage is explored by computing the concentration and dosage of particulate matter less than 10 microm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) for a commuter traveling to work between Geelong and Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, under "business-as-usual" and "green" scenarios.

Improved estimates of upper-ocean warming and multi-decadal sea-level rise.

Changes in the climate system's energy budget are predominantly revealed in ocean temperatures and the associated thermal expansion contribution to sea-level rise. Climate models, however, do not reproduce the large decadal variability in globally averaged ocean heat content inferred from the sparse observational database, even when volcanic and other variable climate forcings are included. The sum of the observed contributions has also not adequately explained the overall multi-decadal rise.