Drought impacts on the electricity system, emissions, and air quality in the western United States.

The western United States has experienced severe drought in recent decades, and climate models project increased drought risk in the future. This increased drying could have important implications for the region's interconnected, hydropower-dependent electricity systems. Using power-plant level generation and emissions data from 2001 to 2021, we quantify the impacts of drought on the operation of fossil fuel plants and the associated impacts on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, air quality, and human health.

Global biomass fires and infant mortality.

Global outdoor biomass burning is a major contributor to air pollution, especially in low- and middle-income countries. Recent years have witnessed substantial changes in the extent of biomass burning, including large declines in Africa. However, direct evidence of the contribution of biomass burning to global health outcomes remains limited.

Using machine learning to assess the livelihood impact of electricity access.

In many regions of the world, sparse data on key economic outcomes inhibit the development, targeting and evaluation of public policy. We demonstrate how advancements in satellite imagery and machine learning (ML) can help ameliorate these data and inference challenges. In the context of an expansion of the electrical grid across Uganda, we show how a combination of satellite imagery and computer vision can be used to develop local-level livelihood measurements appropriate for inferring the causal impact of electricity access on livelihoods.

Recent cover crop adoption is associated with small maize and soybean yield losses in the United States.

Cover crops are gaining traction in many agricultural regions, partly driven by increased public subsidies and by private markets for ecosystem services. These payments are motivated by environmental benefits, including improved soil health, reduced erosion, and increased soil organic carbon. However, previous work based on experimental plots or crop modeling indicates cover crops may reduce crop yields.

Geographically resolved social cost of anthropogenic emissions accounting for both direct and climate-mediated effects.

The magnitude and distribution of physical and societal impacts from long-lived greenhouse gases are insensitive to the emission source location; the same is not true for major coemitted short-lived pollutants such as aerosols. Here, we combine novel global climate model simulations with established response functions to show that a given aerosol emission from different regions produces divergent air quality and climate changes and associated human system impacts, both locally and globally. The marginal global damages to infant mortality, crop productivity, and economic growth from aerosol emissions and their climate effects differ by more than an order of magnitude depending on source region, with certain regions creating global external climate changes and impacts much larger than those felt locally.

Daily Local-Level Estimates of Ambient Wildfire Smoke PM for the Contiguous US.

Smoke from wildfires is a growing health risk across the US. Understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of such exposure and its population health impacts requires separating smoke-driven pollutants from non-smoke pollutants and a long time series to quantify patterns and measure health impacts. We develop a parsimonious and accurate machine learning model of daily wildfire-driven PM concentrations using a combination of ground, satellite, and reanalysis data sources that are easy to update.

The Effect of Particulate Matter Exposure During Pregnancy on Pregnancy and Child Health Outcomes in South Asia: Protocol for an Instrumental Variable Analysis.

Background: Determining the longer-term health effects of air pollution has been difficult owing to the multitude of potential confounding variables in the relationship between air pollution and health. Air pollution in many areas of South Asia is seasonal, with large spikes in particulate matter (PM) concentration occurring in the winter months. This study exploits this seasonal variation in PM concentration through a natural experiment.

Exposures and behavioural responses to wildfire smoke.

Pollution from wildfires constitutes a growing source of poor air quality globally. To protect health, governments largely rely on citizens to limit their own wildfire smoke exposures, but the effectiveness of this strategy is hard to observe. Using data from private pollution sensors, cell phones, social media posts and internet search activity, we find that during large wildfire smoke events, individuals in wealthy locations increasingly search for information about air quality and health protection, stay at home more and are unhappier.

Globally ubiquitous negative effects of nitrogen dioxide on crop growth.

Nitrogen oxides (NO) are among the most widely emitted pollutants in the world, yet their impacts on agriculture remain poorly known. NO can directly damage crop cells and indirectly affect growth by promoting ozone (O) and aerosol formation. We use satellite measures of both crop greenness and NO during 2018-2020 to evaluate crop impacts for five major agricultural regions.

The Impact of Cleft Lip/Palate and Surgical Intervention on Adolescent Life Outcomes.

Background: Cleft lip/palate (CLP) is a congenital orofacial anomaly appearing in approximately one in 700 births worldwide. While in high-income countries CLP is normally addressed surgically during infancy, in developing countries CLP is often left unoperated, potentially impacting multiple dimensions of life quality. Previous research has frequently compared CLP outcomes to those of the general population.

Prior crop season management constrains farmer adaptation to warming temperatures: Evidence from the Indo-Gangetic Plains.

Climate change induced heat stress is predicted to negatively impact wheat yields across the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) of India. Research suggests that early sowing of wheat can substantially reduce this impact. However, a large proportion of farmers sow wheat late across this region, likely resulting in large-scale yield loss.

Harnessing the diversity of small-scale actors is key to the future of aquatic food systems.

Small-scale fisheries and aquaculture (SSFA) provide livelihoods for over 100 million people and sustenance for ~1 billion people, particularly in the Global South. Aquatic foods are distributed through diverse supply chains, with the potential to be highly adaptable to stresses and shocks, but face a growing range of threats and adaptive challenges. Contemporary governance assumes homogeneity in SSFA despite the diverse nature of this sector.

Associations between wildfire smoke exposure during pregnancy and risk of preterm birth in California.

There is limited population-scale evidence on the burden of exposure to wildfire smoke during pregnancy and its impacts on birth outcomes. In order to investigate this relationship, data on every singleton birth in California 2006-2012 were combined with satellite-based estimates of wildfire smoke plume boundaries and high-resolution gridded estimates of surface PM concentrations and a regression model was used to estimate associations with preterm birth risk. Results suggest that each additional day of exposure to any wildfire smoke during pregnancy was associated with an 0.

A MODIS-based scalable remote sensing method to estimate sowing and harvest dates of soybean crops in Mato Grosso, Brazil.

Large-scale agriculture in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil is a major contributor to global food supplies, but its continued productivity is vulnerable to contracting wet seasons and increased exposure to extreme temperatures. Sowing dates serve as an effective adaptation strategy to these climate perturbations. By controlling the weather experienced by crops and influencing the number of successive crops that can be grown in a year, sowing dates can impact both individual crop yields and cropping intensities.

Author Correction: A 20-year retrospective review of global aquaculture.

A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03508-0.

The effect of information about climate risk on property values.

Floods and other climate hazards pose a widespread and growing threat to housing and infrastructure around the world. By reflecting climate risk in prices, markets can discourage excessive development in hazardous areas. However, the extent to which markets price these risks remains poorly understood.

Choosing Plan B Over Plan A: Risk Compensation Theory and Contraceptive Choice in India.

Can women's contraceptive method choice be better understood through risk compensation theory? This theory implies that people act with greater care when the perceived risk of an activity is higher and with less care when it is lower. We examine how increased over-the-counter access to emergency contraceptive pills (ECPs) accompanied by marketing campaigns in India affected women's contraceptive method choices and incidence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Although ECPs substantially reduce the risk of pregnancy, they are less effective than other contraceptive methods and do not reduce the risk of STIs.

A 20-year retrospective review of global aquaculture.

The sustainability of aquaculture has been debated intensely since 2000, when a review on the net contribution of aquaculture to world fish supplies was published in Nature. This paper reviews the developments in global aquaculture from 1997 to 2017, incorporating all industry sub-sectors and highlighting the integration of aquaculture in the global food system. Inland aquaculture-especially in Asia-has contributed the most to global production volumes and food security.

Using satellite imagery to understand and promote sustainable development.

Accurate and comprehensive measurements of a range of sustainable development outcomes are fundamental inputs into both research and policy. We synthesize the growing literature that uses satellite imagery to understand these outcomes, with a focus on approaches that combine imagery with machine learning. We quantify the paucity of ground data on key human-related outcomes and the growing abundance and improving resolution (spatial, temporal, and spectral) of satellite imagery.