The Time-Varying Relationship between Mortality and Business Cycles in the USA.

We examine the relationship between total mortality, deaths due to motor vehicle accidents, cardiovascular disease and measures of business cycles for the USA, using a time-varying parameter model for the periods 1961-2010. We first present a theoretical model to outline the transmission mechanism from business cycles to health status, to motivate our empirical framework and to explain why the relationship between mortality and the economy may have changed over time. We find overwhelming evidence of structural breaks in the relationship between mortality and business cycles over the sample period.