Early-Warning Signals of Individual Tree Mortality Based on Annual Radial Growth.

Tree mortality is a key driver of forest dynamics and its occurrence is projected to increase in the future due to climate change. Despite recent advances in our understanding of the physiological mechanisms leading to death, we still lack robust indicators of mortality risk that could be applied at the individual tree scale. Here, we build on a previous contribution exploring the differences in growth level between trees that died and survived a given mortality event to assess whether changes in temporal autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony in time-series of annual radial growth data can be used as early warning signals of mortality risk.

Simulating rewetting events in intermittent rivers and ephemeral streams: A global analysis of leached nutrients and organic matter.

Climate change and human pressures are changing the global distribution and the extent of intermittent rivers and ephemeral streams (IRES), which comprise half of the global river network area. IRES are characterized by periods of flow cessation, during which channel substrates accumulate and undergo physico-chemical changes (preconditioning), and periods of flow resumption, when these substrates are rewetted and release pulses of dissolved nutrients and organic matter (OM). However, there are no estimates of the amounts and quality of leached substances, nor is there information on the underlying environmental constraints operating at the global scale.

Cost-effective restoration and conservation planning in Green and Blue Infrastructure designs. A case study on the Intercontinental Biosphere Reserve of the Mediterranean: Andalusia (Spain) - Morocco.

Green and Blue Infrastructure (GBI) is a network designed and planned to deliver a wide range of ecosystem services and to protect biodiversity. Existing GBI designs lacked a systematic method to allocate restoration zones. This study proposes a novel approach for systematically selecting cost-effective areas for restoration on the basis of biodiversity, ecosystem services, and ecosystem condition to give an optimal spatial design of GBI.

Participatory coastal management through elicitation of ecosystem service preferences and modelling driven by "coastal squeeze".

The Baixo Vouga Lagunar (BVL) is part of Ria de Aveiro coastal lagoon in Portugal, which is classified as a Special Protection Area under the European Habitats and Birds Directives. This part of the system, corresponding to the confluence of the Vouga River with the lagoon, is very important culturally and socioeconomically for the local communities, taking place several human activities, especially agriculture. To prevent salt water intrusion from the Ria de Aveiro into agriculture fields, a floodbank was initiated in the 90's.

A new approach for assessing natural patterns of flow variability and hydrological alterations: The case of the Spanish rivers.

Ensuring water is available for human use usually requires dams and reservoirs that severely affect river ecosystems. Hydrological alteration by river damming represents one of the most prominent human impacts on freshwater ecosystems. This paper presents a methodological approach to assessing the natural patterns of flow variability and hydrological alterations in Mediterranean rivers.

Evaluation of habitat protection under the European Natura 2000 conservation network - The example for Germany.

The world´s largest network of protected areas-Natura 2000 (N2000)-has been implemented to protect Europe´s biodiversity. N2000 is built upon two cornerstones, the Birds Directive, which lists 691 bird species (plus one additional bird genus with no further classification) and the Habitats Directive, which lists next to a variety of species, 233 habitat types to be protected. There is evidence of the positive impact of the Directives on the EU´s biodiversity, although the overall improvement reported for species in favourable condition in the last assessment was low.

Social equity shapes zone-selection: Balancing aquatic biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services delivery in the transboundary Danube River Basin.

Freshwater biodiversity is declining, despite national and international efforts to manage and protect freshwater ecosystems. Ecosystem-based management (EBM) has been proposed as an approach that could more efficiently and adaptively balance ecological and societal needs. However, this raises the question of how social and ecological objectives can be included in an integrated management plan.

Identification of conservation and restoration priority areas in the Danube River based on the multi-functionality of river-floodplain systems.

Large river-floodplain systems are hotspots of biodiversity and ecosystem services but are also used for multiple human activities, making them one of the most threatened ecosystems worldwide. There is wide evidence that reconnecting river channels with their floodplains is an effective measure to increase their multi-functionality, i.e.

Habitat fragmentation is linked to cascading effects on soil functioning and CO emissions in Mediterranean holm-oak-forests.

We studied key mechanisms and drivers of soil functioning by analyzing soil respiration and enzymatic activity in Mediterranean holm oak forest fragments with different influence of the agricultural matrix. For this, structural equation models (SEM) were built including data on soil abiotic (moisture, temperature, organic matter, pH, nutrients), biotic (microbial biomass, bacterial and fungal richness), and tree-structure-related (basal area) as explanatory variables of soil enzymatic activity and respiration. Our results show that increased tree growth induced by forest fragmentation in scenarios of high agricultural matrix influence triggered a cascade of causal-effect relations, affecting soil functioning.

A systematic review of non-productivity-related animal-based indicators of heat stress resilience in dairy cattle.

Introduction: Projected temperature rise in the upcoming years due to climate change has increased interest in studying the effects of heat stress in dairy cows. Environmental indices are commonly used for detecting heat stress, but have been used mainly in studies focused on the productivity-related effects of heat stress. The welfare approach involves identifying physiological and behavioural measurements so as to start heat stress mitigation protocols before the appearance of impending severe health or production issues.

Introducing the H2020 AQUACROSS project: Knowledge, Assessment, and Management for AQUAtic Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services aCROSS EU policies.

The AQUACROSS project was an unprecedented effort to unify policy concepts, knowledge, and management of freshwater, coastal, and marine ecosystems to support the cost-effective achievement of the targets set by the EU Biodiversity Strategy to 2020. AQUACROSS aimed to support EU efforts to enhance the resilience and stop the loss of biodiversity of aquatic ecosystems as well as to ensure the ongoing and future provision of aquatic ecosystem services. The project focused on advancing the knowledge base and application of Ecosystem-Based Management.

The socioeconomic future of deltas in a changing environment.

Deltas are especially vulnerable to climate change given their low-lying location and exposure to storm surges, coastal and fluvial flooding, sea level rise and subsidence. Increases in such events and other circumstances are contributing to the change in the environmental conditions in the deltas, which translates into changes in the productivity of ecosystems and, ultimately, into impacts on livelihoods and human well-being. Accordingly, climate change will affect not only the biophysical conditions of deltaic environments but also their economic circumstances.

Towards globally customizable ecosystem service models.

Scientists, stakeholders and decision makers face trade-offs between adopting simple or complex approaches when modeling ecosystem services (ES). Complex approaches may be time- and data-intensive, making them more challenging to implement and difficult to scale, but can produce more accurate and locally specific results. In contrast, simple approaches allow for faster assessments but may sacrifice accuracy and credibility.

Quantum Artificial Life in an IBM Quantum Computer.

We present the first experimental realization of a quantum artificial life algorithm in a quantum computer. The quantum biomimetic protocol encodes tailored quantum behaviors belonging to living systems, namely, self-replication, mutation, interaction between individuals, and death, into the cloud quantum computer IBM ibmqx4. In this experiment, entanglement spreads throughout generations of individuals, where genuine quantum information features are inherited through genealogical networks.

Ecosystem-based management planning across aquatic realms at the Ria de Aveiro Natura 2000 territory.

Ria de Aveiro represents a coastal territory, in which its natural capital, mostly classified under a Natura 2000 network of protected areas, is of paramount importance for the regional and national economy, supporting harbour activities and maritime traffic, agriculture, commercial fisheries, aquaculture, manufacturing, tourism, sports and recreational activities. Current and foreseen changes connected to human activities, namely land and water uses and potential conflicts, in frame of environmental policies, sustainable economic development and human well-being require the implementation of ecosystem-based management (EBM) planning processes considering the connectivity across marine, transitional, freshwater, and terrestrial domains. The main objective is to elaborate on the co-development of the EBM planning process across the three water domains, all characterized by high biodiversity and by the wide range of services provided by ecosystems and their abiotic components, for the mitigation of impacts from the management plan under implementation.

Is Seasonal Households' Consumption Good for the Nexus Carbon/Water Footprint? The Spanish Fruits and Vegetables Case.

Proximity and in-season consumption criteria have been suggested as solutions for fruits and vegetables consumers to drive the economy to a more sustainable development. Using a new concept, seasonal avoided footprint by imports, we disentangle the role of period and country of origin. Although, as a general rule, consumers could reduce the footprint by choosing domestic produce, this is not always the case.

Modelling solid waste management solutions: The case of Campania, Italy.

The waste crisis in Campania has inspired a huge body of literature that has described its complex nature. Quantitative analysis in this regard provides useful insight into single aspects of the problem but from a static perspective. In this work, a dynamic model has been developed to analyse the interactions between the main elements of the waste system in Campania and their evolution over the critical time horizon.

Stochastic diffusion models to describe the evolution of annual heatwave statistics: A three-factor model with risk calculations.

In view of risk assessments this paper proposes a stochastic diffusion model to characterise statistics of extreme events when climate- or environmental variables surpass critical thresholds. The proposed three-factor model captures trend and volatility of such statistics and could prove valuable for climate and environmental impact analysis in many systems such as human health, agriculture or ecology. The model supports decisions in view of lowering risks to acceptable levels.

Importance of fisheries for food security across three climate change vulnerable deltas.

Deltas are home to a large and growing proportion of the world's population, often living in conditions of extreme poverty. Deltaic ecosystems are ecologically significant as they support high biodiversity and a variety of fisheries, however these coastal environments are extremely vulnerable to climate change. The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (Bangladesh/India), the Mahanadi (India), and the Volta (Ghana) are among the most important and populous delta regions in the world and they are all considered at risk of food insecurity and climate change.

Edge disturbance drives liana abundance increase and alteration of liana-host tree interactions in tropical forest fragments.

Closed-canopy forests are being rapidly fragmented across much of the tropical world. Determining the impacts of fragmentation on ecological processes enables better forest management and improves species-conservation outcomes. Lianas are an integral part of tropical forests but can have detrimental and potentially complex interactions with their host trees.

The nexus between climate change, ecosystem services and human health: Towards a conceptual framework.

This paper addresses the impact that changes in natural ecosystems can have on health and wellbeing focusing on the potential co-benefits that green spaces could provide when introduced as climate change adaptation measures. Ignoring such benefits could lead to sub-optimal planning and decision-making. A conceptual framework, building on the ecosystem-enriched Driver, Pressure, State, Exposure, Effect, Action model (eDPSEEA), is presented to aid in clarifying the relational structure between green spaces and human health, taking climate change as the key driver.

Applying the global RCP-SSP-SPA scenario framework at sub-national scale: A multi-scale and participatory scenario approach.

To better anticipate potential impacts of climate change, diverse information about the future is required, including climate, society and economy, and adaptation and mitigation. To address this need, a global RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways), SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways), and SPA (Shared climate Policy Assumptions) (RCP-SSP-SPA) scenario framework has been developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5). Application of this full global framework at sub-national scales introduces two key challenges: added complexity in capturing the multiple dimensions of change, and issues of scale.

Health co-benefits from air pollution and mitigation costs of the Paris Agreement: a modelling study.

Background: Although the co-benefits from addressing problems related to both climate change and air pollution have been recognised, there is not much evidence comparing the mitigation costs and economic benefits of air pollution reduction for alternative approaches to meeting greenhouse gas targets. We analysed the extent to which health co-benefits would compensate the mitigation cost of achieving the targets of the Paris climate agreement (2°C and 1·5°C) under different scenarios in which the emissions abatement effort is shared between countries in accordance with three established equity criteria.

Methods: Our study had three stages.