A dataset of structural breaks in greenhouse gas emissions for climate policy evaluation.

The quantitative assessment of policies aimed at climate change mitigation requires rigorously identifying abnormal changes in greenhouse gas emissions. We present a new dataset of robust level changes in greenhouse gas emissions that cannot be explained by aggregate socioeconomic fluctuations. Modern methods of structural break identification based on two-way fixed effects models are employed to estimate the size of significant level changes in emissions.

Socio-economic inequality and healthcare costs over the life course - A dynamic microsimulation approach.

Objectives: Although there is well-established evidence for the existence of socio-economic inequalities in virtually all dimensions of health, little is known about the implications of these socio-economic disparities for healthcare costs from a cumulative life course perspective. Accounting for differentials in healthcare use patterns and mortality, we assess how lifetime costs differ between socio-economic groups.

Study Design: This study used dynamic microsimulation modelling.

The Impact of Health and Education on Labor Force Participation in Aging Societies: Projections for the United States and Germany from Dynamic Microsimulations.

We project the labor force in the United States to 2060 and contrast the outcomes with comparative projections for Germany. In both countries, the population will age, but the demographic dynamics are fundamentally different. According to our dynamic microsimulations, the labor force in the U.

The effect of sample attrition in the EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions on the estimates of Eurostat's Healthy Life Years.

Eurostat's official Healthy Life Years (HLY) estimates are based on European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) cross-sectional data. As EU-SILC has a rotational sample design, the largest part of the samples are longitudinal, health-related attrition constituting a potential source of bias of these estimates. Bland-Altman plots assessing the agreement between pairs of HLY based on total and new rotational, representative samples demonstrated no significant, systematic attrition-related bias.

Has the Russian invasion of Ukraine reinforced anti-globalization sentiment in Austria?

Unlabelled: The Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused disruptions in international trade and highlighted the dependency of small open economies in Europe on imports, especially of energy. These events may have changed Europeans' attitude towards globalization. We study two waves of representative population surveys conducted in Austria, one right before the Russian invasion and the other two months later.

Natural resources modulate the nexus between environmental shocks and human mobility.

In the context of natural resource degradation, migration can act as means of adaptation both for those leaving and those supported by remittances. Migration can also result from an inability to adapt in-situ, with people forced to move, sometimes to situations of worse or of the same exposure to environmental threats. The deleterious impacts of resource degradation have been proposed in some situations to limit the ability to move.

A joint spatial econometric model for regional FDI and output growth.

This paper studies the joint dynamics of foreign direct investments (FDI) and output growth in European regions by using spatially augmented systems of equations modeling framework that incorporates third-region and spillover effects. The joint framework is used to study the dynamic impacts of regional human capital endowments, which demonstrates the importance of explicitly accounting for an endogenous relationship. The relationship is highlighted in a stylized projection exercise, where the long-run impacts are pronounced in Eastern Europe and capital cities.

Cutting through the value chain: the long-run effects of decoupling the East from the West.

With ever-increasing political tensions between China and Russia on one side and the EU and the US on the other, it only seems a matter of time until protectionist policies cause a decoupling of global value chains. This paper uses a computable general equilibrium trade model calibrated with the latest version of the GTAP database to simulate the effect of such a decoupling-implemented by doubling non-tariff barriers-between the two blocks on trade and welfare. Imposing import barriers almost completely eliminates bilateral imports.

Cross-sectional estimates of population health from the survey of health and retirement in Europe (SHARE) are biased due to health-related sample attrition.

Cross-sectional data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) are a common source of information in comparative studies of population health in Europe. In the largest part, these data are based on longitudinal samples, which are subject to health-specific attrition. This implies that estimates of population health based on cross-sectional SHARE datasets are biased as the data are selected on the outcome variable of interest.

Policy instruments and self-reported impacts of the adoption of energy saving technologies in the DACH region.

Using a large sample of enterprises from a survey that was simultaneously conducted in Germany, Austria and Switzerland, we study the self-reported impacts of the adoption of "green" energy saving and related technologies (GETs). Our specific interest is in how different policy instruments associate with energy efficiency, the reduction of emissions, and competitiveness at the firm level. A first set of equations tracks how policy relates to the adoption of green energy technologies in distinct areas such as production, transport, buildings, ICT or renewables.

Nowcasting and monitoring SDG 8.

We propose a nowcasting approach for indicators assigned to the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 8, calling for decent work and economic growth. The nowcasts of SDG indicators are based on dynamic factor models. In this mixed frequency framework, we exploit information from a comprehensive set of quarterly data to nowcast annually observed SDG indicators.

Does the abolition of copayment increase ambulatory care utilization?: a quasi-experimental study in Germany.

Due to a problematic situation with public finances, Germany introduced a copayment scheme for ambulatory care visits in 2004. In 2012, Germany achieved a balanced budget, and copayment was abolished on the 1st of January 2013. This policy change offers a rare opportunity to explore the impact of the abolition of copayment, compared to the much more frequently studied introduction of copayment.

Labor market effects of COVID-19 in Sweden and its neighbors: Evidence from administrative data.

This paper studies the labor market effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. We focus on the Nordic countries which showed one of the highest variations in NPIs despite having similar community spread of COVID-19 at the onset of the pandemic: While Denmark, Finland and Norway imposed strict measures ('lockdowns'), Sweden decided for much lighter restrictions. Empirically, we use novel administrative data on weekly new unemployment and furlough spells from all 56 regions of the Nordic countries to compare the labor market outcomes of Sweden with the ones of its neighbors.

Spatial spillover effects from agriculture drive deforestation in Mato Grosso, Brazil.

Deforestation of the Amazon rainforest is a threat to global climate, biodiversity, and many other ecosystem services. In order to address this threat, an understanding of the drivers of deforestation processes is required. Spillover effects and factors that differ across locations and over time play important roles in these processes.

Modelling European regional FDI flows using a Bayesian spatial Poisson interaction model.

This paper presents an empirical study of spatial origin and destination effects of European regional FDI dyads. Recent regional studies primarily focus on locational determinants, but ignore bilateral origin- and intervening factors, as well as associated spatial dependence. This paper fills this gap by using observations on interregional FDI flows within a spatially augmented Poisson interaction model.

The determinants of output losses during the Covid-19 pandemic.

The global recession in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic was accompanied by a significant degree of heterogeneity in the economic contraction across countries. We use a rich data set and Bayesian model averaging techniques to identify the factors shaping the extent of heterogeneity. The results highlight the importance of adverse initial conditions (large contact-intensive service sector) and behavioural changes (increased voluntary spatial distancing) relative to the extent of public containment measures.

Overcoming gender inequality for climate resilient development.

Gender inequalities are reflected in differential vulnerability, and exposure to the hazards posed by climate change and addressing them is key to increase the adaptive capacities of societies. We provide trajectories of the Gender Inequality Index (GII) alongside the Shared-Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), a scenario framework widely used in climate science. Here we find that rapid improvements in gender inequality are possible under a sustainable development scenario already in the near-term.

The spatial econometrics of the coronavirus pandemic.

In this paper we use spatial econometric specifications to model daily infection rates of COVID-19 across countries. Using recent advances in Bayesian spatial econometric techniques, we particularly focus on the time-dependent importance of alternative spatial linkage structures such as the number of flight connections, relationships in international trade, and common borders. The flexible model setup allows to study the intensity and type of spatial spillover structures over time.

Country-Level Relationships of the Human Intake of N and P, Animal and Vegetable Food, and Alcoholic Beverages with Cancer and Life Expectancy.

Background: The quantity, quality, and type (e.g., animal and vegetable) of human food have been correlated with human health, although with some contradictory or neutral results.

A multi-country dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility for euro area business cycle analysis.

This paper develops a dynamic factor model that uses euro area country-specific information on output and inflation to estimate an area-wide measure of the output gap. Our model assumes that output and inflation can be decomposed into country-specific stochastic trends and a common cyclical component. Comovement in the trends is introduced by imposing a factor structure on the shocks to the latent states.

Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture and food systems: The Eur-Agri-SSPs.

Scenarios describe plausible and internally consistent views of the future. They can be used by scientists, policymakers and entrepreneurs to explore the challenges of global environmental change given an appropriate level of spatial and sectoral detail and systematic development. We followed a nine-step protocol to extend and enrich a set of global scenarios - the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) - providing regional and sectoral detail for European agriculture and food systems using a one-to-one nesting participatory approach.

A protocol to develop Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture.

Moving towards a more sustainable future requires concerted actions, particularly in the context of global climate change. Integrated assessments of agricultural systems (IAAS) are considered valuable tools to provide sound information for policy and decision-making. IAAS use storylines to define socio-economic and environmental framework assumptions.

The growing American health penalty: International trends in the employment of older workers with poor health.

Many countries have reduced the generosity of sickness and disability programs while making them more activating - yet few studies have examined how employment rates have subsequently changed. We present estimates of how employment rates of older workers with poor health in 13 high-income countries changed 2004-7 to 2012-15 using HRS/SHARE/ELSA data. We find that those in poor health in the USA have experienced a unique deterioration: they have not only seen a widening gap to the employment rates of those with good health, but their employment rates fell per se.

The adoption of green energy technologies: The role of policies in Austria, Germany, and Switzerland.

We contribute to the existing research about policy-induced technology adoption in several ways. First, we suggest a new survey design to measure the energy-related policy environment. Second, we simultaneously estimate the policy effects for the adoption propensity and the adoption intensity simultaneously and, third, we compare the policy effects in the three countries, Austria, Germany, and Switzerland.