Modeling potential effects of reduced calories in kids' meals with toy giveaways.

Background: Given the large proportion of daily calories attributable to fast food, there is growing interest in considering whether ordinances that restrict calories in kids' meals with toy giveaways could avert weight gain among children.

Methods: Based upon a literature review and stakeholder feedback, a model was developed to estimate the potential number of children that could be affected by a statewide toy giveaway ordinance and the caloric savings should such a policy effectively reduce the number of calories in kids' meals with toy giveaways. Assumptions included the estimated number of children that eat fast food each day, the proportion that choose a kids' meal with a toy, the caloric savings of a kids' meal that meets nutrition standards, and the degree to which these savings could result in weight gain averted per child per year.