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Improved subseasonal prediction of South Asian monsoon rainfall using data-driven forecasts of oscillatory modes.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
April 2024
Geosciences Department and Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (CNRS and Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace), École Normale Supérieure and Paris Sciences et Lettres University, Paris, France 75005.
Predicting the temporal and spatial patterns of South Asian monsoon rainfall within a season is of critical importance due to its impact on agriculture, water availability, and flooding. The monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (MISO) is a robust northward-propagating mode that determines the active and break phases of the monsoon and much of the regional distribution of rainfall. However, dynamical atmospheric forecast models predict this mode poorly.
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