Natural history of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma in Crete. Association with hepatitis C virus.

Objective: To investigate the clinical characteristics of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in Crete and to analyse the natural course of the untreated disease.

Participants: Seventy-three patients (62 men) were enrolled in a prospective 4-year study. Clinical and virological parameters were recorded. Diagnosis was based on either ultrasound guided liver biopsy or a pathognomonic increase in alpha-fetoprotein plus compatible imaging.

Methods: Statistical analysis was performed using histograms, contingency tables and one-way analyses of variance to analyse the characteristics of the disease. For survival analysis Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox's proportional hazards models were constructed.

Results: HCC in Crete is a mostly male disease (7:1 male:female ratio) and unlike in mainland Greece, it is mostly a hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related disease (54% HCV positive as opposed to only 13% in mainland Greece). Prognosis was associated with Okuda classification (Okuda stage III patients have a relative risk of dying that is seven to nine times higher than for Okuda stage I), the presence or absence of hepatitis Be antigen (HBeAg) and antibody to hepatitis B core antigen (anti-HBc). By contrast the presence of anti-HCV was not associated with a worse prognosis. A unit increase of albumin concentration was associated with an 11% decrease in the hazard rate.

Conclusion: In general, Crete, despite the extremely similar population to the rest of Greece, resembles more closely the situation in Spain or Italy rather than mainland Greece.