A quantitative assessment of the risk of transmission of foot-and-mouth disease, bluetongue and vesicular stomatitis by embryo transfer in cattle.

This paper addresses the risks involved when bovine embryos are moved internationally and, specifically, the possibilities of transmitting foot-and-mouth disease, bluetongue and vesicular stomatitis by embryos originating from an area in South America. The risk scenario pathway was divided into three phases for analysis. The first phase dealt with the potential for embryo contamination which depends on the disease situation in the exporting country and/or region, the health status of the herds and the donor cows from which the embryos are collected, and the pathogenetic characteristics of the specified disease agent. The second phase covers risk mitigation by use of internationally accepted standards for processing of embryos, and the third phase encompassed the risk reductions resulting from post-collection surveillance of the donors and donor herds, and also from testing of embryo-collection (flushing) fluids for the disease agent. Quantitative risk analysis showed that under the circumstances specified in the paper, the risk of transmission of foot-and-mouth disease and vesicular stomatitis by embryos would be likely to be less than 1 in 100 billion (10(-11.0)) and 1 in 100 million (10(-8.0)), respectively. The values for bluetongue were 1 in 30,000 (10(-4.2)) when embryos were collected in the vector season and 1 in 1 million (10(-6.0)) in the season with low vector activity. These risk values were influenced by the incidence of each disease in the area of origin and the ease with which clinical signs can be recognised. Competent embryo processing according to procedures recommended by the International Embryo Transfer Society were also of great importance. The analysis showed that the reasons for the low levels of risk of transmission differed for each of the three diseases. In the case of bluetongue, vector ecology was of major importance.