Rationale And Objectives: The authors extrapolated the lognormal relationship between size of tumor and probability of metastasis to include small tumors.
Methods: Extrapolation was performed by using linear weighted regression analysis techniques to estimate prediction intervals for the predicted probabilities.
Results: Tumors detected at 1 cm in diameter had a 7.31% probability of metastasis (95% prediction interval [PI], 4.36% to 11.6%). Tumors detected at 5 mm in diameter had a 1.23% probability of metastasis (95% PI, 0.45% to 3.0%). Tumors detected at 2 mm had a 0.049% probability of metastasis (95% PI, 0.00705% to 0.267%).
Conclusion: This analysis shows a major reduction in metastasis probability when tumors are detected at small sizes. These results suggest that detection of very early tumors can substantially reduce the likelihood of metastatic spread.
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