Sixteen 17-year-old kibbutz members, seven of them smokers, and nine nonsmokers of hashish, assessed the probability that a young person of similar background would use drugs. Two sources of information were manipulated bifactorially: personal predisposition (curiosity, risk-taking, and existential meaning) and the level of group pressure to smoke hashish. It was found that hashish smokers assigned meaningful importance to a combined influence of the two factors, while the nonsmokers considered only group pressure to be important. A tool based on the measurement method examined in this study is proposed for predicting the probability of drug use among adolescents.
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