[Current estimate of the number of patients for liver transplantation with Dutch mortality figures].

Objective: To estimate the number of liver transplantations needed in the Netherlands, using death rates of the two periods 1979-1981 and 1989-1991.

Method: Death rates of different liver diseases were divided into: generally accepted indications (transplantable liver diseases, TLD), alcoholic liver cirrhosis, ALC and primary liver cell carcinoma, PLC. The death rates in the two periods, 1979-1981 and 1989-1991, were compared, and the impact of liver transplantation was determined. Subsequently an estimate of the maximum number of patients for liver transplantation in the Netherlands was made, based on death rates.

Results: Mortality of TLD and PLC rose 14% and 7% respectively, while it dropped 13% for ALC. In the period 1989-1991 liver transplantation appeared to have had a quantitative effect on mortality, especially in the youngest age groups. In the age group 0-59 the maximum number of patients for liver transplantation per year was estimated to be 147, nearly 10 per million inhabitants, excluding ALC and PLC.

Conclusion: In the period 1989-1991 21% of deceased TLD patients up to age 60 received liver transplantation in the Netherlands.