Early predictors of death and disability after acute cerebral ischemic event.

Background And Purpose: Many clinical trials are currently being conducted to evaluate the ability of neuroprotectors and thrombolytic agents to improve survival and functional outcome after ischemic stroke. Such trials require early predictors of survival and disability for ethical and methodological reasons. The aim of the study was to determine which variables, of those easily assessable during the first 24 hours after stroke onset, would be predictors of 8-day mortality rate and 3-month clinical outcome.

Methods: One hundred fifty-two consecutive patients with an acute ischemic event were evaluated within 24 hours after symptom onset. We determined (1) the 8-day mortality rate and (2) the 3-month functional outcome (Glasgow Outcome Scale). The following potential predictors of outcome were tested by means of a stepwise logistic regression analysis: age, sex, body mass index, atrial fibrillation, previous stroke, existence of headache, Orgogozo score, level of consciousness, swallowing disturbances, hemianopia, pulse rate, mean blood pressure, hematocrit, glycemia, and computed tomographic scan data (cerebral atrophy score, hyperdense middle cerebral artery sign, number of silent infarcts, leukoaraiosis score).

Results: The multivariate analysis revealed that the 8-day mortality rate depended only on the level of consciousness at admission (P = .0001); death or dependence at month 3 (scores 3 to 5 on the Glasgow Outcome Scale) depended on the severity of the clinical deficits (P = .0001), previous stroke (P = .0018), and age (P = .0237).

Conclusions: In future drug trials, the distribution of patients between "active treatment" and "placebo" groups should be balanced regarding the severity of clinical deficits, history of stroke, and age.