The influence of volumetric tumor doubling time, DNA ploidy, and histologic grade on the survival of patients with intracranial astrocytomas.

Purpose: To improve the prediction of individual survival in patients with intracranial astrocytomas through the analysis of volumetric tumor doubling time (VDt) and DNA ploidy.

Methods: A pilot study was retrospectively conducted on a group of 25 patients with intracranial astrocytomas in whom recurrent and/or progressive disease was observed on serial contrast-enhanced CT or MR examinations. VDt was computed using two or more data points from a semilogarithmic plot of tumor volume versus time. Size-adjusted survival was calculated using a method based on VDt and initial tumor volume to decrease the lead time bias attributable to differing tumor sizes at presentation.

Results: Slower VDt was associated with significantly longer survival and size-adjusted survival as determined by a univariate Cox proportional hazard analysis. Aneuploidy was a significant indicator of poor survival. Aneuploid and multiclonal astrocytomas had poor size-adjusted survivals compared with diploid astrocytomas. Grade IV astrocytomas had significantly poorer survival and size-adjusted survival compared with lower grades (I to III), which individually were not significantly correlated. However, grade IV histology was not a significant independent predictor of size-adjusted survival in a multivariate Cox model, whereas VDt and DNA ploidy remained significant. VDt also had a significant direct linear correlation to survival and size-adjusted survival.

Conclusions: VDt and DNA ploidy were more sensitive than histologic grading as indicators of individual survival. Initial tumor size needs to be considered when staging and assessing survival in patients with intracranial astrocytomas.