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Flusion: Integrating multiple data sources for accurate influenza predictions.
Epidemics
December 2024
Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA, United States.
Over the last ten years, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has organized an annual influenza forecasting challenge with the motivation that accurate probabilistic forecasts could improve situational awareness and yield more effective public health actions. Starting with the 2021/22 influenza season, the forecasting targets for this challenge have been based on hospital admissions reported in the CDC's National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN) surveillance system. Reporting of influenza hospital admissions through NHSN began within the last few years, and as such only a limited amount of historical data are available for this target signal.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFQuantifying West Nile virus circulation in the avian host population in Northern Italy.
Infect Dis Model
June 2025
Department of Mathematics, University of Trento, Trento, Italy.
West Nile virus (WNV) is one of the most threatening mosquito-borne pathogens in Italy where hundreds of human cases were recorded during the last decade. Here, we estimated the WNV incidence in the avian population in the Emilia-Romagna region through a modelling framework which enabled us to eventually assess the fraction of birds that present anti-WNV antibodies at the end of each epidemiological season. We fitted an SIR model to ornithological data, consisting of 18,989 specimens belonging to Corvidae species collected between 2013 and 2022: every year from May to November birds are captured or shot and tested for WNV genome presence.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFRisk of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome associated with meteorological factors in diverse epidemic regions: a nationwide longitudinal study in China.
Infect Dis Poverty
January 2025
School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.
Background: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a climate-sensitive zoonotic disease that poses a significant public health burden worldwide. While previous studies have established associations between meteorological factors and HFRS incidence, there remains a critical knowledge gap regarding the heterogeneity of these effects across diverse epidemic regions. Addressing this gap is essential for developing region-specific prevention and control strategies.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFChronic and infectious respiratory mortality and short-term exposures to four types of pollen taxa in older adults in Michigan, 2006-2017.
BMC Public Health
January 2025
Social Environment and Health Program, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, 426 Thompson St., Ann Arbor, MI, 48104, USA.
Introduction: Levels of plant-based aeroallergens are rising as growing seasons lengthen and intensify with anthropogenic climate change. Increased exposure to pollens could increase risk for mortality from respiratory causes, particularly among older adults. We determined short-term, lag associations of four species classes of pollen (ragweed, deciduous trees, grass pollen and evergreen trees) with respiratory mortality (all cause, chronic and infectious related) in Michigan, USA.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFImpact of seasonal malaria chemoprevention timing on clinical malaria incidence dynamics in the Kedougou region, Senegal.
PLOS Glob Public Health
January 2025
Aix Marseille Univ, IRD, INSERM, SESSTIM, ISSPAM, Marseille, France.
Seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine and amodiaquine is recommended by the World Health Organization since 2012 for clinical malaria prevention in children in the Sahelian region of Africa. In Senegal, SMC implementation began in 2013 and is given to children under 10 years old. This study aimed to describe clinical malaria incidence in the general population during routine SMC implementation and to analyse how SMC timing impacted clinical malaria dynamics in eligible children.
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